航空行业更新报告：国庆客流再创新高，建议淡季逆向布局

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - The demand for travel during the 2024 National Day holiday was robust, with air passenger traffic reaching a historical high for the same period, estimated to exceed the passenger load factor of 2019 [2][3]. - The report highlights that short-term fluctuations in oil prices do not alter the long-term value of airlines, as the impact of oil prices on profitability depends on supply and demand dynamics [3]. Summary by Sections National Day Holiday Travel Demand - The 2024 National Day holiday saw significant travel demand, with over 2 billion people moving across regions, a 3.9% increase from 2023 and a 23% increase from 2019 [3]. - Major transportation modes recorded historical highs in passenger flow: railways up 28%, civil aviation up 22%, and highways up 23% compared to 2019 [3]. Airline Performance - Air passenger traffic during the holiday increased by 11% year-on-year and 22% compared to 2019, achieving a new historical high [3]. - The passenger load factor rose approximately 4 percentage points to 86%, surpassing the level of 2019, despite a nearly 10% year-on-year decline in ticket prices [3]. Oil Price Impact - Fuel costs account for nearly 40% of airline expenses, but fluctuations in oil prices do not change the long-term value of airlines [3]. - The report suggests that airlines possess a "downside protection" against falling oil prices, as the recovery of supply and demand in the Chinese aviation market is expected to elevate profitability beyond market expectations [3]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends a contrarian investment approach during the off-peak season, as the long-term value of airlines is becoming more apparent [3]. - It maintains "Overweight" ratings for specific airlines, including Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines [3].