镍板块2024三季度前瞻：行业出清信号出现，静待行业反转

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The nickel price averaged $16,500 per ton in Q3 2024, down 20% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a return to rational pricing after a period of supply easing [3][4] - The rainy season in the Philippines during Q3 affected local nickel production and exports, leading to an increase in high-grade nickel ore prices and strengthening cost support [4] - Due to the low nickel prices this year, several global nickel projects have experienced production cuts or suspensions, suggesting that supply constraints are becoming evident and the bottom for nickel prices may have been reached [8] Summary by Sections Nickel Price Trends - Nickel prices in Q3 2024 showed a low-level fluctuation, with LME inventory reaching 132,000 tons, indicating a phase of inventory accumulation [4] Production Cuts and Supply Constraints - The Indonesian government has halted the construction of new rotary kiln electric furnace (RKEF) nickel processing and refining facilities, which will impact future supply [8] - BASF announced the termination of its collaboration with Eramet for a nickel-cobalt refining project in Indonesia, with an investment of approximately $2.6 billion [8] - BHP has announced the suspension of its Nickel West operations, affecting an annual capacity of 90,000 metal tons [8] - Delong Nickel Industry is undergoing bankruptcy restructuring, which may limit future supply [8] Recommended Companies - Companies with a first-mover advantage in Indonesia, such as Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources, are recommended for investment [10][11]