CHANGAN AUTOMOBILE-B(SZ:000625) Guolian Securities·2024-10-09 00:06Investment Rating - The investment rating for Changan Automobile is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - Changan Automobile's wholesale sales in September reached 213,200 units, a year-on-year decline of 9.98% but a month-on-month increase of 13.93%. Cumulatively, from January to September, the company achieved wholesale sales of 1,905,000 units, a year-on-year growth of 1.89% [11] - The company is entering a strong product cycle with a series of new car launches in September, which is expected to support steady sales growth in the future [11] - The performance of Changan's self-owned new energy vehicles remains robust, with September sales of 54,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.65% and a month-on-month increase of 11.55% [11] - The company is actively expanding its overseas market, with self-owned brand overseas sales in September reaching 30,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 58.18% [11] - The report forecasts revenue growth for Changan Automobile from 2024 to 2026, with expected revenues of 179.75 billion, 210.47 billion, and 242.02 billion yuan, corresponding to growth rates of 18.81%, 17.09%, and 14.99% respectively [12] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In September, Changan's total wholesale sales were 213,200 units, down 9.98% year-on-year but up 13.93% month-on-month. For the first nine months, total sales reached 1,905,000 units, up 1.89% year-on-year [11] - Self-owned brand sales in September were 172,600 units, down 8.49% year-on-year but up 14.04% month-on-month, with a total of 1,584,500 units sold from January to September, reflecting a 2.28% year-on-year increase [11] New Product Launches - September saw the launch of several new models, including the Avita 07, which achieved 11,673 pre-orders within 20 hours of its launch. This strong product cycle is expected to drive future sales growth [11] New Energy Vehicles - Changan's new energy vehicle sales in September were 54,400 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.65% and a month-on-month increase of 11.55%. From January to September, total new energy vehicle sales reached 447,600 units, up 45.96% year-on-year [11] Overseas Expansion - The company is pushing for overseas expansion, with the Avita 11 officially launched in Thailand in September. Self-owned brand overseas sales reached 30,600 units in September, up 58.18% year-on-year [11] Financial Forecast - The report projects Changan's revenue for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 179.75 billion, 210.47 billion, and 242.02 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 18.81%, 17.09%, and 14.99% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 7.50 billion, 10.60 billion, and 12.61 billion yuan for the same period [12]