Changjiang Securities·2024-10-09 00:37Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The adjustment of the savings agency fee rate is significantly lower than expected, which is expected to enhance profitability and initiate valuation recovery for Postal Savings Bank [2][6]. - The comprehensive agency fee rate has decreased from 1.24% to 1.08%, saving agency fee expenses of 15.1 billion yuan, which corresponds to an increase in pre-tax profit by 9.0 percentage points for the year [2][6]. - The bank is characterized by low valuation (A-share static 0.67X PB) and high dividend yield (A-share 4.96%), with a mid-year dividend for 2024 initiated at a payout ratio of 30% [2][7]. Summary by Sections Event Description - On September 30, Postal Savings Bank announced a plan to adjust the savings agency fee rates, with reductions across various terms ranging from 33.8 basis points to 8 basis points [6]. - The new rates will be retroactively applied from July 1, enhancing short-term performance [6]. Financial Impact - The significant reduction in the comprehensive agency fee rate is expected to alleviate profit pressure, with a projected pre-tax profit growth of 4.9 percentage points for the first three quarters of 2023 due to an estimated savings of approximately 4 billion yuan in agency fee expenses [7][12]. - The adjustment mechanism for agency fee rates has been optimized, shortening the reference period for passive adjustments from ten years to five years, which is expected to lead to more timely and efficient fee adjustments in the future [6][7]. Market Position and Outlook - Despite the challenges posed by interest rate cuts and retail asset quality fluctuations, Postal Savings Bank's net interest margin is expected to remain relatively stable due to its higher proportion of deposits compared to loans [7]. - The bank's strong retail resource endowment and market governance mechanisms provide a clear long-term growth path, particularly in the county financial market [7][12].