通信周跟踪:政策利好带动全面反攻行情,通信板块配置方向推荐
Shanxi Securities·2024-10-09 01:30

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the communication sector [1]. Core Insights - The communication sector is expected to benefit from favorable policies, leading to a comprehensive rebound in the market. The recent performance of major indices indicates a strong recovery, with the communication index rising by 25.9% from September 23 to September 30, 2024. This rebound is attributed to multiple factors, including easing monetary policy, unexpected capital market support, and improved economic data [2][11]. - Key areas of investment focus include 5.5G, IoT, AI computing power, and satellite internet, which are seen as critical components of new productive forces. The report suggests that policy support will enhance investment and R&D, leading to improved profit expectations and valuation adjustments in the long term [2][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly View and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the positive impact of capital market policies and suggests that the communication sector still has room for growth. It recommends actively seizing opportunities in AI computing, AIDC, military informationization, satellite internet, IoT, and communication semiconductors [11][12][13]. 2. Market Overview - From September 23 to September 30, 2024, the overall market saw significant gains, with the ChiNext Index rising by 42.12%, the STAR Market Index by 35.66%, and the Shenzhen Component Index by 30.26%. The communication index also increased by 25.05% during this period [15][24]. 3. Key Investment Areas - AI Computing Power: The report emphasizes the potential for AI investments, with projections indicating that OpenAI's revenue could reach $11.6 billion in 2025 and $100 billion by 2029. It suggests focusing on companies involved in optical modules, PCBs, and server ODMs [11][12]. - AIDC: The report notes that domestic consumption support policies are expected to boost revenues for major internet companies, with a focus on high-density liquid-cooled IDC solutions [12]. - Military Informationization: The successful test of a ballistic missile by the Chinese military signals a recovery in industry orders, with expectations for increased production in 2025 [12]. - Satellite Internet: The establishment of new satellite and rocket companies is anticipated to drive growth in the satellite internet sector, with expectations for a significant increase in launch numbers by 2025 [12][13]. - IoT: The report identifies several growth areas, including smart home appliances and electric vehicles, driven by policy support and market demand [13]. - Communication Semiconductors: The report indicates that the semiconductor sector has completed a de-inventory cycle, with expectations for accelerated growth in the second quarter [13]. 4. Company Performance - Notable stock performances include significant gains for companies such as Ruikeda (45.09%), Kingsoft Office (44.52%), and Zhongji Xuchuang (42.20%) during the reporting period [24].