海外需求观察：2024年第41周

Employment Data - In September, the U.S. added 254,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 144,000, marking the largest increase since March[1] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. fell to 4.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, continuing a two-month downward trend[8] - The broader U6 unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 7.7%[8] Wage Growth - Year-on-year wage growth in September rose to 4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points[10] - Month-on-month wage growth was 0.4%, slightly down from the previous value[10] Economic Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November is now at 86.6%, with a 13.4% chance of no cut[13] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for September was recorded at 47.2%, indicating continued contraction for six months[15] - The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.9%, reflecting expansion for three consecutive months[17] International Trade - South Korea's exports grew by 7.5% year-on-year in September, while imports increased by 2%, resulting in a trade surplus of approximately $6.7 billion[21] - Semiconductor exports from South Korea maintained over 25% growth but showed a decline of 16 percentage points compared to the previous period[21] Market Sentiment - The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the U.S. improved from -0.8 to 14.3, indicating a positive shift in economic expectations[23]