Kawin Technology(SH:688687) HTSC·2024-10-09 02:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 36.93 [6]. Core Views - The innovative biological product, Piyisheng (Pegylated Interferon α-2 Injection), has received acceptance for its listing application for the treatment of adult chronic hepatitis B, indicating a positive outlook for approval and market penetration [1][2]. - The long-acting interferon is recognized as a cornerstone therapy for hepatitis B, with clinical data suggesting a significant increase in functional cure rates when used in combination with antiviral drugs [2]. - The large patient population for hepatitis B in China, estimated at 80 million, with around 30 million chronic hepatitis B patients, presents a substantial market opportunity for Piyisheng [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.4 billion, RMB 1.9 billion, and RMB 2.6 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.8, RMB 1.1, and RMB 1.5 [1][5]. - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 1.4 billion in 2023 to RMB 2.8 billion in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 29.7% [5]. Market and Competitive Landscape - Currently, only one long-acting interferon product is available in the domestic market, with Piyisheng positioned to be a leading product upon approval, potentially creating a dual-leader market scenario [4]. - The report anticipates that Piyisheng could become a major product with sales potential reaching RMB 3 billion, given the favorable competitive landscape and large patient base [4]. Valuation Methodology - The company is valued at RMB 63 billion using the Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, with the innovative drug Piyisheng and Kailiwei valued at RMB 31 billion and RMB 17 billion, respectively [9].