国君晨报1009|策略、基金配置、金工、通信、交运

• The report discusses the construction of a capacity cycle analysis framework, focusing on supply-demand dynamics and simplifying influencing factors into three elements: demand, investment, and capacity. The cycle is divided into five stages: shortage, prosperity, surplus, de-capacity, and reversal. This framework applies to both traditional industries and advanced manufacturing, aiming to assess industry prosperity and stock price trends by identifying cycle stages and transition points [2] - Historical analysis highlights how surplus capacity pressure in traditional industries (e.g., cement, steel, chemicals) and advanced manufacturing (e.g., specialized equipment, electric vehicles) has been alleviated. For traditional industries, administrative restrictions on supply and price bottoming signals are key indicators. For advanced manufacturing, demand recovery driven by economic growth or technological innovation serves as the primary catalyst [3] - Current surplus capacity pressure in traditional industries is linked to weak downstream demand, particularly in construction-related sectors. Administrative measures to reduce supply, such as slowing new capacity releases and shutting down existing capacity, are emphasized as critical strategies. Price turning points remain a vital signal for alleviating surplus pressure and stock price recovery [5] - Advanced manufacturing exhibits structural surplus characteristics, with demand acceleration being the key signal for alleviating surplus pressure. Catalysts include new technologies, overseas market expansion, and domestic replacement initiatives. Industries such as semiconductors, engineering machinery, batteries, and automotive are highlighted for investment opportunities based on demand recovery [6]