9月PMI数据点评：制造业景气度改善，服务业景气度回落

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for September 2024 is 49.8%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the expansion threshold[7] - New orders index in manufacturing improved marginally to 49.9%, up 1.0 percentage points, yet remains below the threshold, indicating insufficient demand[9] - The production index recorded 51.2%, indicating an acceleration in manufacturing activities, while the inventory indices for raw materials and finished goods are below the critical point, suggesting inadequate replenishment[10] Group 2: Services Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI for September 2024 dropped to 49.9%, marking the first time this year it has fallen below the expansion threshold[14] - The new orders index in the services sector is at 45%, indicating a lack of demand, while the employment index is at 45.5%, reflecting insufficient hiring activity[14] - Despite the decline, the business activity expectations index remains above the threshold at 54.6%, suggesting optimism for future activities[14] Group 3: Construction Sector - The construction PMI improved to 50.7%, remaining above the expansion threshold, indicating increased expansion momentum[15] - The new orders index in construction is at 39.5%, signaling pressure on demand, while the employment index is at 40%, indicating insufficient hiring in the sector[15] - The business activity expectations index for construction is at 53.1%, suggesting positive outlook for future activities[15] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - The overall economic outlook shows marginal improvement in manufacturing, but persistent challenges in demand and supply dynamics remain[17] - Risks include potential deviations from expected fundamental recovery, unexpected macroeconomic policies, and geopolitical risks[18]