兼评2024年8月财政运行数据：增量财政政策如何发力？

Fiscal Policy Insights - The central government is expected to increase its leverage, with a projected government leverage ratio around 60% by the end of 2024, still lower than developed and developing countries[2] - The general public budget revenue from January to August 2024 decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with August's decline at 2.8%, indicating ongoing fiscal pressure[10] - Non-tax revenue grew by 11.7% year-on-year, accounting for 18.1% of the general public budget revenue, the highest historical proportion[11] Budget Expenditure Analysis - General public budget expenditure growth slowed to a new low of 1.5% year-on-year from January to August, significantly below the annual target of 4.0%[12] - Debt interest payments reached a historical high of 4.7% of total expenditure, indicating increasing fiscal pressure[12] - Government fund budget revenue fell by 21.1% year-on-year, with land transfer income dropping by 25.4%, reflecting a weak land market[15] Policy Recommendations - The government should optimize fiscal expenditure structure, focusing on infrastructure and gradually shifting towards consumer support through cash or digital currency[3] - Continued structural tax reductions are necessary to alleviate burdens on key sectors, while ensuring fiscal sustainability[5] - Long-term fiscal reforms should be accelerated, including clarifying central-local government responsibilities and enhancing local tax systems[6]