策略观点：政策转向强宽松

Macro Overview - The Chinese economy continues to weaken, with real estate declines expanding, weak consumption, and ongoing deflationary pressures. The macro policy has shifted significantly towards strong easing to restore confidence in the housing and stock markets [1][7] - The U.S. economy is gradually slowing down from an overheated state to a cooler one, but is expected to avoid recession. The Federal Reserve's significant interest rate cuts in September may lead to further gradual cuts in the coming months [1][9] Technology Sector - The technology sector is optimistic, with improved market liquidity and risk appetite due to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and domestic macro policy stimulus. The Hang Seng Technology Index is expected to see valuation recovery, with a projected P/E of 16x for 2025, compared to 30x for U.S. SOX and A-share electronics [1] - Key investment opportunities include companies in the AI supply chain, such as Xiaomi (1810 HK), BYD Electronics (285 HK), and AAC Technologies (2018 HK) [1] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor and communication sectors have seen significant stock price increases, with A-share semiconductor companies averaging a 37% rise from September 23 to September 30. Despite this, the average P/E ratio remains below the historical average [1] - Recommended stocks include Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK) and ZTE Corporation (763 HK), which are expected to benefit from improved market sentiment and capital inflows [1] Internet Sector - The internet sector has experienced a notable recovery in investment sentiment due to a series of supportive policies. The average trading P/E for internet stocks is currently at 19x, similar to the valuation during the previous revaluation phase [1] - Key recommendations include Alibaba (BABA US) and Pinduoduo (PDD US), which are expected to benefit from ongoing cost reduction and efficiency improvements [1] Software and IT Services - The Chinese software sector has outperformed the market due to its high beta characteristics. Although the U.S. software sector benefits from rate cuts, its fundamental performance is expected to be less than stellar [2] - Recommended stocks include Kingdee International (268 HK), which is expected to benefit from scale effects and profit margin improvements [2] Healthcare Sector - The healthcare sector is anticipated to face weak domestic demand due to macroeconomic pressures, but the overall situation may improve with economic stimulus policies. The innovative drug and CXO sectors are expected to see valuation rebounds [2] - Recommended stocks include WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) and BeiGene (BGNE US), which are considered attractive due to their solid fundamentals [2] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector is expected to stabilize as policies shift, with essential consumption stocks likely to benefit from positive consumption stimulus policies. The beer industry is projected to see improved sales and profit growth due to new product launches [2] - Recommended stocks include China Resources Beer (291 HK) and Proya Cosmetics (603605 CH), which are expected to perform well in the current environment [2] Automotive Sector - The automotive industry is expected to see stronger seasonal effects this year due to government policies promoting trade-in programs and financial incentives. Sales forecasts for the industry have been revised upward [3] - Recommended stocks include Geely Automobile (175 HK) and Li Auto (LI US/2015 HK), which are expected to benefit from improved market conditions [3] Real Estate and Property Management - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, with increased transaction volumes in the secondary housing market. New policies are expected to stimulate demand, leading to a potential stabilization in housing prices [3] - Recommended stocks include China Resources Land (1109 HK) and Greentown Service (2869 HK), which are positioned to benefit from the improving market sentiment [3] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is expected to see significant profit growth due to improved investment returns and favorable policy changes. The sector is likely to benefit from a strong beta performance in the current market environment [4] - Recommended stocks include China Life (2628 HK) and China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK), which are considered attractive due to their low valuations and strong fundamentals [4] Capital Goods Sector - The capital goods sector is viewed selectively, with expectations of volatility in stock prices until tangible improvements in demand are observed. The engineering machinery sector is expected to see continued growth, while heavy truck exports may weaken [4] - Recommended stocks include Zoomlion Heavy Industry (1157 HK) and Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH), which are expected to perform well in the current environment [4]