2025 年 11 月 4 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 公司更新 中际旭创 (300308 CH) 中际旭创 (300308 CH) - AI 需求推 出强劲，展望积极 AI 需求推动季度业绩创新高；云厂商资本支出强 劲，展望积极 中际旭创季度业绩再次创下新高，公司三季度收入达 102亿元人民币，同、环比 分别增长 57%、26%。受益于 800G 光模块出货带来的规模效应，以及硅光解决 方案采用率提升，毛利率大幅提升至 42.8%，较去年同期和上季度分别上升 9.2、1.3 个百分点。净利润激增至 31 亿元人民币，创历史新高，同、环比分别 增长 125%、30%。净利率提升至 30.7%（去年同期和上季度分别 21.4%和 29.7%）。重申"买入"评级，目标价上调至 591 元人民币。 | 财务资料 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (截至 12 月 31 日) | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | | 销售收入 (百万人民币) | 10,718 | 23,862 | 37,9 ...

港股分类指数上日表现 2025 年 11 月 4 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,158 | 0.97 | 30.40 | | 恒生国企 | 9,259 | 0.98 | 27.01 | | 恒生科技 | 5,922 | 0.24 | 32.55 | | 上证综指 | 3,977 | 0.55 | 18.64 | | 深证综指 | 2,521 | 0.44 | 28.77 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,197 | 0.29 | 49.27 | | 美国道琼斯 | 47,337 | -0.48 | 11.26 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,852 | 0.17 | 16.50 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 23,835 | 0.46 | 23.43 | | 德国 DAX | 24,132 | 0.73 | 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to 90 RMB, reflecting strong growth momentum driven by AI [1][8]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 performance shows significant growth, with revenue reaching 7.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 55% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12%. The gross margin improved to 28.1%, up from 22.9% a year ago and 26.9% in the previous quarter. Net profit surged by 131% year-on-year and 18% quarter-on-quarter to 1 billion RMB, resulting in a net profit margin of 12.8% [1][8]. - The report forecasts revenue growth of 41% and 38% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with net profit expected to grow by 102% and 79% in the same periods [1][8]. Financial Summary - **Sales Revenue (Million RMB)**: - FY23A: 16,586 - FY24A: 20,388 - FY25E: 28,775 - FY26E: 39,631 - FY27E: 50,221 - **Year-on-Year Growth (%)**: - FY24A: 22.9% - FY25E: 41.1% - FY26E: 37.7% - FY27E: 26.7% [2] - **Gross Margin (%)**: - FY23A: 19.2% - FY24A: 22.0% - FY25E: 27.3% - FY26E: 30.5% - FY27E: 32.3% [2] - **Net Profit (Million RMB)**: - FY23A: 1,164 - FY24A: 1,738.7 - FY25E: 3,508.5 - FY26E: 6,272.3 - FY27E: 8,786.4 - **Year-on-Year Growth (%)**: - FY24A: 49.4% - FY25E: 101.8% - FY26E: 78.8% - FY27E: 40.1% [2] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is positioned as a core supplier in the AI infrastructure sector, benefiting from strong demand for AI servers. Its subsidiary, Shengyi Electronics, reported a record quarterly revenue of 3.1 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 154% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40% [1][8]. - The copper-clad laminate business achieved revenue of 4.9 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 23%. Despite facing cost pressures from rising copper prices, the company expects price adjustments to mitigate most of the cost inflation [1][8]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of 90 RMB represents a potential upside of 40% from the current price of 64.30 RMB [3]. - The report adjusts the earnings forecast upwards to reflect the company's strong growth and improving profit margins, with a projected P/E ratio of 35 times for 2026 [1][8].

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.43% and the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, while the US markets saw slight gains, particularly the Nasdaq which rose by 0.61% [1][3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 8.719 billion, with Xiaomi, Meituan, and 3SBio leading in net purchases, while Tencent and SMIC experienced significant net sales [3] Economic Insights - China's manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest level since 2008, indicating a further slowdown in economic activity for Q4, with expectations of policy easing from the central bank [4] - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, with a 16.3% year-on-year decline in sales for the top 100 property companies from January to October, and a further drop in second-hand housing prices [4] Industry Analysis - The CIS market is expected to grow by 6.4% in 2024, reaching USD 23 billion, driven by the adoption of automotive ADAS and emerging applications like smart glasses [4][5] - The competitive landscape in the CIS industry is becoming more concentrated, with leaders like Sony pushing technological boundaries while competitors like Samsung focus on high-resolution solutions [5] Company Performance - Amazon reported Q3 2025 revenue of USD 180.2 billion, a 13.4% year-on-year increase, with AWS revenue exceeding expectations [6] - Coinbase's Q3 2025 revenue grew by 59% year-on-year to USD 1.79 billion, driven by strong trading performance [6] - Zhongji Xuchuang achieved record quarterly revenue of RMB 10.2 billion, a 57% year-on-year increase, supported by strong demand for 800G optical modules [7]

Company Analysis - WuXi AppTec reported strong Q3 2025 financial results, with revenue increasing by 15.3% year-on-year, and adjusted Non-IFRS net profit rising significantly by 42.0% [2] - The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to a range of RMB 43.5 billion to RMB 44 billion, up from the previous guidance of RMB 42.5 billion to RMB 43.5 billion, indicating robust business execution despite macro uncertainties [2] - As of Q3 2025, the company's backlog for its small molecule D&M business reached RMB 59.88 billion, a year-on-year increase of 41.2%, highlighting its role as a key growth driver [6] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,434, up 1.05% for the day and 31.77% year-to-date, reflecting positive market sentiment [3] - The Chinese stock market saw gains, with sectors such as materials, information technology, and consumer discretionary leading the way, while telecommunications, finance, and energy lagged [5] - The U.S. stock market also experienced upward momentum, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising by 1.23% and 1.86% respectively, driven by improved risk appetite following U.S.-China trade negotiations [5] Industry Insights - The chemical segment of WuXi AppTec showed signs of recovery, with drug discovery services experiencing a slight revenue decline of 2.0% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing [7] - The company is witnessing early signs of demand recovery in the industry, attributed to improvements in the macro environment, including a rebound in the domestic capital market and favorable global business development transactions [7] - The management anticipates that the revenue growth from the small molecule D&M segment will significantly impact overall revenue growth, as it constitutes 46% of total revenue in 2024 [6]

Macro Commentary - The US September CPI year-on-year growth rate continues to rise slightly but is below market expectations, with core CPI showing a month-on-month slowdown [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to focus more on employment risks, with a potential interest rate cut in October or December, targeting a year-end federal funds rate of 3.75%-4% [2] - The Chinese stock market saw gains, with sectors like materials, consumer discretionary, and information technology leading, while utilities, consumer staples, and real estate lagged [4] Industry Commentary - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has risen 58.6% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 24.2%, indicating a recovery in the pharmaceutical sector [5] - The CXO industry is expected to see performance recovery in the second half of 2025 due to a resurgence in demand for innovative drug development and a rebound in capital market financing [5] - The report highlights the importance of clinical progress for authorized innovative drug pipelines overseas as a catalyst for stock price increases [7] Company Commentary - Great Wall Motors reported a slight decline in gross margin in Q3 2025, with a 3.6% increase in average selling price, but net profit fell 50% to 2.3 billion yuan due to delays in tax refunds [9] - The company maintains a sales forecast of 1.35 million units for 2025, with expectations for Q4 sales to reach 430,000 units, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth [9] - Xiaomi is expected to report a strong Q3 2025 performance, with a projected 60% year-on-year increase in adjusted net profit, driven by robust electric vehicle sales [14] - Weibo anticipates a 5% decline in total revenue for Q3 2025, primarily due to weaker advertising demand from certain industries [15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the pharmaceutical sector, indicating a potential upside of over 15% in their stock prices over the next 12 months [2][33]. Core Insights - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has increased by 58.6% from early 2025, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 24.2%. However, there has been a recent pullback of 10% in the healthcare sector, presenting a buying opportunity [1]. - The report highlights a recovery in the demand for domestic innovative drug research and development, driven by a resurgence in capital market financing and an increase in overseas clinical trials for authorized innovative drugs [1]. - The CXO industry is expected to see performance recovery in the second half of 2025, aided by the recent interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the clinical progress of authorized innovative drug pipelines overseas, as this could serve as a catalyst for stock price increases [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the recent clinical data released at the ESMO conference, focusing on several key drugs and their performance in clinical trials, such as SKB264 and ivonescimab, which show promising results in treating specific types of cancer [4]. - It notes that while business development (BD) activities for innovative drugs are ongoing, stock prices have not reflected this positively, primarily due to valuation concerns [4]. Company Ratings and Valuations - The report provides a detailed valuation table for several companies, including: - **Sangamo Therapeutics (1530 HK)**: Market cap of $8.76 billion, target price of $37.58, with a 34% upside potential [2]. - **Gusongtang (2273 HK)**: Market cap of $932.7 million, target price of $48.28, with a 62% upside potential [2]. - **Giant Biologics (2367 HK)**: Market cap of $5.74 billion, target price of $58.35, with a 40% upside potential [2]. - **WuXi AppTec (2268 HK)**: Market cap of $10.87 billion, target price of $74.00, with a 5% upside potential [2]. - **China National Pharmaceutical Group (1177 HK)**: Market cap of $16.80 billion, target price of $9.40, with a 35% upside potential [2]. - **Innovent Biologics (1801 HK)**: Market cap of $18.94 billion, target price of $110.62, with a 29% upside potential [2].

Inflation Trends - September CPI year-on-year growth rose to 3%, slightly below market expectations[2] - Core CPI month-on-month growth decreased from 0.35% to 0.23%, also below expectations[5] - Energy prices saw a month-on-month increase from 0.7% to 1.5%, with gasoline prices rebounding from 1.9% to 4.1%[5] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates once more by the end of the year, targeting a federal funds rate of 3.75%-4%[2] - Further rate cuts are anticipated next year, potentially bringing the rate down to 3.25%-3.5%[2] Housing and Services Impact - Rent inflation significantly declined, with the month-on-month growth rate dropping from 0.36% to 0.15%, the lowest since early 2021[5] - Other service inflation remains high, with travel services like lodging and airfare showing strong demand[5] Future Projections - October CPI month-on-month growth is expected to decrease to 0.2%, maintaining a year-on-year growth of 3%[5] - The potential for significant deviations in CPI data due to reduced sample collection is noted, increasing uncertainty around future rate cuts[2]

Macro Commentary - The core objective of China's "14th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) emphasizes high-quality development, shifting focus from GDP growth to technological self-reliance and economic transformation [2][4] - Key strategic industries highlighted include artificial intelligence, semiconductors, advanced robotics, green energy, aerospace, and industrial software [2] - The plan aims to rebalance the economy towards consumption-driven growth, with increased investment in social services such as healthcare and elder care, benefiting sectors like consumer staples and healthcare [2][4] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,968, up 0.72% year-to-date performance is 29.45% [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,922, with a year-to-date increase of 17.03% [2] - U.S. markets showed positive performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.27% and the S&P 500 up 0.49% [2][4] Company Analysis - **Giant Bio (2367 HK)**: The approval of its first injectable aesthetic product marks the beginning of a new growth phase for the company. The product is aimed at facial dermal filling to correct dynamic wrinkles [5][6] - The company has a strong channel advantage due to its established network and brand recognition in the aesthetic market, which is expected to drive growth [5] - **Thermo Fisher (TMO US)**: Reported a strong 3Q25 performance with a revenue increase of 5.0% year-on-year and an adjusted EPS growth of 9.7%. The company raised its full-year guidance based on robust performance [6][7] - The demand from pharma and biotech clients is showing positive signs, with revenue growth driven by bioproduction and analytical instruments [7][8] - The company is expected to benefit from the trend of pharmaceutical companies establishing manufacturing facilities in the U.S., which will reflect in its performance by 2027-2028 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 58.35, down from a previous target of HKD 71.30, indicating a potential upside of 41.6% from the current price of HKD 41.20 [2][4]. Core Insights - The approval of the first injectable aesthetic product, recombinant type I α1 collagen, marks the beginning of a second growth curve for the company, expanding its product matrix in the aesthetic medicine sector [1][8]. - The Chinese aesthetic injection market is projected to reach RMB 147 billion by 2027, with the collagen injection segment expected to grow to RMB 16.8 billion, highlighting significant growth potential [8]. - The company has a strong channel advantage due to its established network and brand recognition in the aesthetic medicine market, which is expected to drive growth from the new injectable products [8]. Financial Summary - Sales revenue is projected to grow from RMB 3,524 million in FY23A to RMB 8,715 million in FY27E, with a CAGR of approximately 17.7% [3][13]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 1,451.8 million in FY23A to RMB 2,820.5 million in FY27E, reflecting a growth rate of 13.5% [3][13]. - The company’s net debt ratio is projected to increase from (57.2%) in FY23A to (73.4%) in FY27E, indicating a shift towards higher leverage [3][13]. Product Development - The company has two additional injectable collagen products in the approval stage, which are expected to enhance its aesthetic product portfolio and address various anti-aging needs [8][9]. - The newly approved injectable product is designed for facial dermal filling to correct dynamic wrinkles, positioning the company competitively in the market [9]. Market Position - The company has established a comprehensive product matrix that includes injectable products, post-surgery recovery dressings, and functional skincare, allowing it to capture a broader market share [1][8]. - The competitive landscape includes several other approved products, but the company’s strong distribution channels and brand recognition are expected to provide a competitive edge [8][9].