2025 年 1 月 7 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 软件 & IT 服务 海外公司梳理：拆解盈利增长前景及估值提升空间 2024 年美股头部科技平台整体表现良好，全年收益率平均值/中位数在 60%/44%，主要得益于：1）宏观经济维持韧性，美联储开启降息提升市场流 动性；2）AI 成为第二增长曲线，拉动 AI 芯片/AI 云/广告业务增速，行业龙头 依托于领先的产品能力/基建/客户基础/应用场景率先受益。展望 2025 年，我们 认为 AI 仍然是投资主线，但受益路径有望从 AI 芯片以及 AI 公有云进一步传导 到更多应用场景，包括 B 端和 C 端的应用软件，企业 SaaS 和数据云平台营收 有望相较 2024 年加速。头部科技平台中我们看好 Amazon（云需求持续增长及 零售业务运营效率持续优化驱动盈利稳步增长）、Alphabet（AI 搜索改善用户 体验并提升商业化水平，AI 云业务维持较快增长且利润率改善）、Meta（广告 业务持续受益于 AI 维持快速增长，依托于庞大用户基础较好实现 C 端 AI 应用 落地及变现）、Microsoft（AI 主题下重要的应用端核心投资标 ...

3 Jan 2025 Earnings Summary CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Wingtech (600745 CH) Valuation to improve on ODM business spin-off On December 31, 2024, Wingtech signed a "Letter of Intent for Sale" for nine wholly-owned ODM subsidiaries with Luxshare Limited in an all-cash deal. This move follows its recent addition to the US trade blacklist (news). According to mgmt., this transaction serves two primary purposes: (1) to align with the risk preferences of certain ODM clients ...

3 Jan 2025 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) Initial validation of overseas expansion capabilities Out-licensed global rights of DLL3 ADC to Roche. Innovent has out-licensed the global rights of IBI3009, a novel DLL3 ADC, to Roche through a blockbuster deal. The drug candidate obtained IND approval for a global Ph1 study in Dec 2024. Innovent and Roche will jointly focus on the early-stage development of the asset before Roche assumes full respo ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Hesai Group (HSAI US) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $16.3 per ADS, based on a 4.8x 2025 expected price-to-sales ratio [2][3] Core Viewpoints - Hesai Group is a global leader in 3D LiDAR solutions, with a strong competitive advantage in the industry [5] - The company is expected to reach a profitability turning point in 2024, driven by increased shipments of existing LiDAR products, the launch of a cost-effective new AT series in 2025, and improved operational efficiency [2] - Hesai Group is projected to achieve Non-GAAP net profits of RMB 9 million in 2024 and RMB 141 million in 2025 [2] - The company has established mass production partnerships with 20 domestic and international automakers for 75 vehicle models as of 3Q24 [5] - Hesai Group holds a 37% market share in the global LiDAR market in 2023, ranking first, with leading positions in both passenger car/light commercial vehicle (26%) and autonomous taxi (74%) segments [12] Market and Industry Analysis - The global automotive LiDAR market is expected to reach $3.63 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 38% from 2023 to 2029 [12] - The passenger car (PC) and light commercial vehicle (LCV)/autonomous taxi LiDAR markets are projected to reach $2.99 billion and $638 million, respectively, by 2029, with CAGRs of 39% and 31% from 2023 to 2029 [12] - Hesai Group is well-positioned to benefit from the strong growth in the LiDAR market, given its leading position in both global and Chinese LiDAR solution markets [12] Competitive Advantages - Hesai Group's competitive advantages include its leading technological capabilities, such as the self-developed ASIC chip, which enables continuous cost optimization [5] - The company's in-house manufacturing and highly automated production methods provide it with leading mass production capabilities [5] - Strong customer relationships drive continuous market penetration [5] Valuation and Target Price - The target valuation of RMB 15.9 billion (equivalent to $16.3 per ADS) is based on a 4.8x 2025 expected price-to-sales ratio, which is 10% higher than the industry average of 4.4x [3] - This valuation is supported by Hesai Group's industry-leading financial performance and a strong product delivery plan in 2025, driven by incremental contributions from leading automakers [3]

20 Dec 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Hansoh Pharma (3692 HK) Oral GLP-1 candidate accomplished transaction with MSD Hansoh out-licensed oral GLP-1 drug to MSD. Hansoh has granted MSD a global exclusive license for HS-10535, a preclinical stage oral small molecule GLP-1R agonist. Under the agreement, Hansoh will receive an upfront payment of US$112mn, with potential milestone payments up to US$1.9bn, plus future sales royalties. Under specific conditions, Hansoh may ...

2024 年 12 月 17 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 半导体 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

2024 年 12 月 17 日 招银国际环球市场 | 策略报告 | 宏观策略 2025 美国经济展望 开局乐观，渐趋谨慎 特朗普政策将延长美国经济扩张后周期，带来短期加热效应和中期滞胀效应。 美国经济有望软着陆，实际 GDP 增速将从 2024 年的 2.7%放缓至 2025 年的 2.3%和 2026 年的 2%。通胀可能逐渐趋近目标，但特朗普政策可能增加中期通 胀不确定性。货币政策仍在限制性状态，美联储可能在 2025 年底前降息三 次，每次 25 个基点。由于特朗普政策预期，上半年美元将保持强势，但随着关 税和移民政策削弱中期增长前景，下半年美元可能有所回落。 特朗普减税政策将提升需求和通胀；去监管将通过提高效率而促进经济增 长并降低通胀；移民政策将同时减少劳工供应和消费需求，降低经济增 长，但对通胀影响相对中性；关税政策将抑制需求并提高供应链成本，带 来滞胀效应；特朗普对美联储干预可能削弱货币政策公信力，增加中期通 胀预期不稳定性。 在基准情景下，特朗普政策力度温和，合计将推升 2025-2027 年均 GDP 增速 0.2-0.3 个百分点，降低 2027 年后年均 GDP 增速 0.1-0.2 ...

2024 年 12 月 16 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 汽车 燃料电池重卡行业或将在 2026-2027 年迎来拐点 燃料电池在中国主要应用于商用车领域尤其是重卡，我们认为燃料电池行业的 爆发也可能率先出现在重卡领域。从我们测算的不同动力形式的重卡全生命周 期成本对比来看，2026年燃料电池重卡的总体拥有成本将在 3年内和柴油重卡 持平，其成本竞争力或让行业出现拐点信号，而实现这一投资回报周期的核心 是加氢价格以及基础设施配套能力。在5-10年的中长期维度，我们预测燃料电 池系统单价有接近 75%的降本空间，且其续航和补能效率或仍领先纯电重卡， 这也让燃料电池重卡大规模替代柴油重卡成为可能。 燃料电池短期仍需政府支持及引导，降低加氢成本是行业在 2026-2027 年 能否迎来拐点的关键之一。燃料电池重卡目前相较于柴油重卡在购车和燃 料成本都处于劣势的情况可能在 2025 年迎来转变，在加氢成本在 30 元/公 斤（副产氢不发达地区仍需政府补贴才能达到）以及免 2 年高速费的情况 下，我们估算燃料电池重卡的全生命周期成本或将与柴油重卡持平；假设 2026 年加氢成本进一步下降至 25 ...

2024 年 12 月 17 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 半导体 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...