2026 年 1 月 13 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 全球市场观察 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,608 | 1.44 | 3.82 | | 恒生国企 | 9,220 | 1.90 | 3.44 | | 恒生科技 | 5,863 | 3.10 | 6.29 | | 上证综指 | 4,165 | 1.09 | 4.95 | | 深证综指 | 2,715 | 2.05 | 7.25 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,388 | 1.82 | 5.78 | | 美国道琼斯 | 49,590 | 0.17 | 3.18 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,977 | 0.16 | 1.92 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 23,734 | 0.26 | 2.12 | | 德国 DAX | 25,405 | 0.57 | 3.74 | | 法国 CAC | 8, ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" for companies such as 三生制药 (1530 HK), 固生堂 (2273 HK), 药明合联 (2268 HK), and 中国生物制药 (1177 HK) [3][4][32]. Core Insights - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has increased by 11.8% since the beginning of 2026, outperforming the MSCI China Index which rose by 9.1%. The pharmaceutical sector has seen significant growth due to strong institutional investor interest at the start of the year following a valuation correction in Q4 of the previous year [2]. - The trend of innovative drugs going overseas is expected to continue in the long term, with a focus on the clinical progress and data validation of pipelines that have already gone abroad [2]. - The domestic innovative drug market is still relatively small, with an estimated market size of 300-400 billion RMB, of which domestic innovative drugs account for about 1/3, or 100-130 billion RMB. If the proportion of patented drugs in China reaches 66% like the global average, the market size could potentially reach around 760 billion RMB [6]. Summary by Sections Company Recommendations - Recommended companies for investment include 三生制药 (1530 HK), 固生堂 (2273 HK), 药明合联 (2268 HK), and 中国生物制药 (1177 HK) [3][4]. Market Trends - The market for domestic innovative drugs is characterized by high demand due to aging populations, weak pricing from insurance negotiations, strong competition, and short product life cycles. The global pharmaceutical market is projected to reach 1.74 trillion USD in 2024, with China's market size at 166 billion USD, representing only 9.5% of the global market [6]. - The potential market size for domestic innovative drugs going abroad could reach 110 billion USD, nearly 800 billion RMB, if one-third of the global patented drug market is sourced from China [6]. Clinical Development and Financials - In 2025, the total transaction amount for BD (business development) licensing for Chinese innovative drugs is expected to reach 135.65 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 161%, with 70 million USD in upfront payments [6]. - Basic medical insurance expenditure showed a slight recovery in 2025, with cumulative spending growth of 0.5% and income growth of 2.9%, indicating a shift in the growth catalyst from insurance to out-of-pocket and commercial insurance [6].

2026 年 1 月 12 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观/行业点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,232 | 0.32 | 2.35 | | 恒生国企 | 9,049 | 0.10 | 1.51 | | 恒生科技 | 5,687 | 0.15 | 3.10 | | 上证综指 | 4,120 | 0.92 | 3.82 | | 深证综指 | 2,660 | 1.34 | 5.10 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,328 | 0.77 | 3.89 | | 美国道琼斯 | 49,504 | 0.48 | 3.00 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,966 | 0.65 | 1.76 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 23,671 | 0.81 | 1.85 | | 德国 DAX | 25,262 | 0.53 | 3.15 | | 法国 CAC | 8 ...

2026 年 1 月 12 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 Economic Perspectives - 就业走弱 就业走弱 美国 12 月新增非农就业低于预期，10 月和 11 月数据下修，显示就业市场走 弱。新增就业主要集中在酒店休闲和教育医疗等服务行业，建筑和制造业就 业减少。DOGE 影响告一段落，联邦政府就业首次连续回升。12 月失业率降 至 4.4%，11月失业率被下修至 4.54%，因为劳动参与率下降和劳工供应减少 抵消劳工需求走弱。市场对年内可能降息 50 个基点的预期变化不大。我们预 计美联储全年仅在 6 月降息一次 25 个基点，很大程度作为新任主席上任后的 政治表态。上半年美国经济可能处于金发姑娘状态，减税政策提振经济增 长，油价和房租通胀回落抵消商品通胀反弹，美元流动性保持宽松状态，风 险资产可能走高。下半年美国经济可能呈现滞涨趋势，经济增速放缓，而通 胀止跌回升，美元流动性收紧预期升温，风险资产可能回调。 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingna ...

2026 年 1 月 9 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,149 | -1.17 | 2.02 | | 恒生国企 | 9,039 | -1.09 | 1.41 | | 恒生科技 | 5,678 | -1.05 | 2.94 | | 上证综指 | 4,083 | -0.07 | 2.88 | | 深证综指 | 2,625 | 0.17 | 3.72 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,302 | -0.82 | 3.10 | | 美国道琼斯 | 49,266 | 0.55 | 2.50 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,921 | 0.01 | 1.11 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 23,480 | -0.44 | 1.02 | | 德国 DAX | 25,127 | 0.02 | 2.60 | | 法国 CAC | ...

2026 年 1 月 8 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 Economic Perspectives - 强劲服务业支撑经济韧性 美国 12 月 PMI 显示服务业与制造业明显分化。服务业 PMI 扩张速度创 1 年来新 高，产需两端延续走强，就业指数自对等关税实施以来首次重回扩张，物价指 数扩张速度降至关税前水平；制造业 PMI连续 3个月加速收缩，需求依然疲软， 进出口活动低迷，企业延续去库存趋势。服务业 PMI 连续扩张显示美国经济仍 有韧性，而油价下跌和房租涨幅收窄推动通胀可能小幅回落，短期内美国经济 处于金发姑娘状态，美元流动性保持宽松，对风险资产形成支撑。但随着油价 接近美国页岩油盈亏平衡点、房租涨幅降至低于过去 10 年历史均值和其他商品 价格反弹，美国通胀可能在下半年止跌回升，美元流动性收紧预期可能升温， 风险资产价格可能经历波动。我们预计美联储可能在 6 月降息一次 25 个基点。 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 敬请参 ...

Macro Strategy - The Chinese economy is expected to slow down, with GDP growth forecasted to decrease from 5% in 2025 to 4.8% in 2026, reflecting a decline in economic activity and consumer confidence [7][10] - Inflation is showing slight improvement, with CPI growth rising from 0.2% in October to 0.7% in November, while PPI decline is narrowing [8] - The real estate market is experiencing a slowdown, with new and second-hand home sales dropping significantly, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [9][12] Internet Sector - The year 2026 is seen as crucial for capturing user attention in the AI era, with companies that have stable cash flows and strong operational capabilities expected to have higher long-term investment value [1] - Recommended stocks include Tencent, Alibaba, and Kuaishou, which are positioned to benefit from AI-driven growth and foreign capital inflows [1][6] Software and IT Services - The competition in the large model industry is anticipated to intensify, with a focus on AI application monetization expected to grow [1] - Companies like Kingdee are recommended for their potential to achieve incremental monetization through AI [1][6] Semiconductor Industry - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 26% to $975 billion in 2026, driven by AI-related sectors [1] - Recommended stocks include Zhongji Xuchuang and Shengyi Technology, which are expected to benefit from structural growth in the semiconductor industry [1][6] Technology Sector - The technology industry is expected to see a divergence in end-user demand and accelerated AI innovation, with a focus on AI computing infrastructure and end-side AI products [1] - Companies like Luxshare Precision and BYD Electronics are highlighted for their potential in this sector [1][6] Consumer Sector - The consumer market is expected to face challenges, with a shift towards essential and low-cost products as consumer sentiment weakens [2] - Recommended stocks include Nongfu Spring and Luckin Coffee, which are positioned to benefit from market trends [2][6] Automotive Industry - The automotive market is projected to see a 2.9% increase in wholesale volume, with new energy vehicle sales expected to grow by 18.5% to 18.5 million units in 2026 [2] - Recommended stocks include Geely and Zhengli New Energy, which are expected to perform well amid market changes [2][6] Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical sector is undergoing a valuation correction, presenting new investment opportunities, particularly in innovative drugs [2] - Companies with strong overseas expansion potential are highlighted for their competitive advantages [2][6] Capital Goods - The demand for mining machinery is expected to rise due to increasing global metal prices, with leading Chinese engineering companies focusing on growth in emerging markets [2] - Recommended stocks include Sany Heavy Industry and Zoomlion, which are well-positioned for growth in this sector [2][6] Insurance Sector - The insurance industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in valuations and strong growth in life insurance sales, particularly in dividend insurance [3] - Recommended stocks include China Ping An and China Life, which are expected to perform well due to their strong fundamentals [3][6] Real Estate and Property Management - The real estate sector is anticipated to see a recovery in sales due to recent policy relaxations, with a projected decline in sales expected to be less severe than in previous years [4] - Recommended stocks include China Resources Land and Beike, which are expected to benefit from market improvements [4][6]

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Credit Commentary 8 Jan 2026 Fixed Income Daily Market Update 固定收益部市场日报 Trading desk comments 交易台市场观点 Yesterday, the new CASHLD 6.25 Perp rose 0.9pt from RO at 99.965. See our buy recommendation yesterday. The new FRESHK 29 tightened 10bps from RO at T+178. The existing FRESHK 26-28s were 5bps tighter. EIBKOR 29-36s opened 1–2bps tighter from ROs but retraced in the afternoon, and closed flat to 1bp wider. RESONA 31, SWIPRO 31, MITHCC 31s, CLFCAP 31 and BAYFIM 29 tightene ...

2026 年 1 月 8 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 全球市场观察 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,459 | -0.94 | 3.23 | | 恒生国企 | 9,139 | -1.14 | 2.52 | | 恒生科技 | 5,739 | -1.49 | 4.03 | | 上证综指 | 4,086 | 0.05 | 2.95 | | 深证综指 | 2,621 | 0.11 | 3.54 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,330 | 0.31 | 3.95 | | 美国道琼斯 | 48,996 | -0.94 | 1.94 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,921 | -0.34 | 1.10 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 23,584 | 0.16 | 1.47 | | 德国 DAX | 25,122 | 0.92 | 2.58 | | 法国 CAC ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Asian IG credit market was actively traded yesterday with abundant primary supplies, and there is diversification demand from Chinese and other Asian investors for Middle East credits [2] - In the secondary market, there was solid deployment demand for wider - spread FRNs and better selling pressure for lower - beta, front - end FRNs [3] - Initiate a buy on the new CASHLD 6.25 Perp due to its higher YTC compared to peers and the stable credit profile of PCCW [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, the multi - tranche new MUFG 32 - 37s and SUMIBK 29 - 47s tightened 1 - 3bps from ROs; Fixed - rate HYNMTR 31 - 33s traded 1–3bps wider; BOCAVI 33s closed 2bps tighter; EXIMBK 36s tightened 2bps and EXIMBK 56s tightened 8bps; new UBS perps were initially up and then retraced slightly; KSA 4.875 01/12/36 was up 0.3pt [2] - In the secondary space, there was demand for wider - spread FRNs and selling pressure for lower - beta, front - end FRNs; NWDEVL Perps were up 0.1 - 1.3pts; LNGFOR 27 - 32s were firm and up 0.7 - 1.0pt; FTLNHD 26 - 27 were up 0.3 - 0.5pt, FUTLAN 28 was 0.4pt lower; in SE Asia, GLSP Perps rose 1.4 - 1.5pts [3] - This morning, new BAYFIM 29 and CLFAP 31 tightened 3bps; FRESHK 29 was 5bps tighter; MITHCC 31s were 7bps tighter; RESONA 31/STANLN 30 - 37s/EIBKOR 29 - 36s tightened 1 - 2bps; SWIPRO 31 was 4bps tighter; ZHHFGR 28 and ZHHFGR 6 Perp were 0.5pt lower [4] - In the LGFV space, FZSZJJ 7 12/27/27 recovered 1.3pts, and the rest edged 0.1 - 0.4pt higher [5] Macro News Recap - On Tuesday, S&P (+0.62%), Dow (+0.99%), and Nasdaq (+0.65%) were higher; US Dec'25 S&P Global Services PMI was 52.5, lower than the market expectation; the US Supreme Court is expected to rule on tariffs on 9 Jan'26; UST yield was higher [8] Desk Analyst Comments - Initiate a buy on the new CASHLD 6.25 Perp as it offers higher YTC than peers with a similar first coupon reset date and PCCW has a stable credit profile; it is trading at YTC of 6.1% and rose 0.8pt this morning [9] Offshore Asia New Issues (Priced) - Agricultural Bank of China issued 600mn USD 5 - year bonds at SOFR+45 [16] - CAS Capital No.2 Limited issued 675mn USD PerpNC5.25 bonds at 6.25% [16] - Clifford Capital Asset Finance Pte issued 500mn USD 3 - year bonds at 3.852% and 500mn USD 5 - year bonds at 4.037% [16] - Emirates NBD Bank PJSC issued 300mn USD 3 - year bonds at 4.195% and 700mn USD 5 - year bonds at 4.529% [16] - Far East Horizon issued 400mn USD 3 - year bonds at 5.25% [16] - KFH Sukuk Company issued 1000mn USD 5 - year bonds at 4.563% [16] - Mitsubishi HC Finance America issued 500mn USD 5 - year bonds at 4.558% [16] - National Australia Bank issued multiple - tranche bonds with different amounts, tenors, and coupons [16] - Resona Bank issued 300mn USD 5 - year bonds at 4.286% [16] - Standard Chartered Bank issued multiple - tranche bonds with different amounts, tenors, and coupons [16] - Shandong Development issued 240mn USD 3 - year bonds at 3.9% [16] - Swire Properties issued 500mn USD 5 - year bonds at 4.25% [16] - The Export - Import Bank of Korea issued multiple - tranche bonds with different amounts, tenors, and coupons [16] Offshore Asia New Issues (Pipeline) - There are no offshore Asia new issues in the pipeline today [17] Company - Specific News - 96 credit bonds were issued yesterday with an amount of RMB71bn, and month - to - date, 183 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB143bn, a 29.3% yoy decrease [23] - Fitch placed JSW Steel's BB rating on positive watch [23] - Longfor completed RMB1.0bn payment for onshore bond 21Longhu02 [23] - Mongolian Mortgage repurchased USD 17.54m of MGMTGE 11.5 01/18/27, and the o/s amount is reduced to USD185.149mn [4][23] - SJM Holdings aims to lower net leverage to 5x within two years and is in talks with banks about raising new loans and redeeming debt [23] - Standard Chartered priced SGD750mn PerpNC5.5 AT1 at 4.3% [23]