招银国际环球市场有限公司 焦点股份 招银国际焦点股份 | 招银国际焦点股份 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ROE (%) | 市 | 值 | 平均日交易量 | 股 | 价 | 目标价 | 上/下 | 行 | 市盈率(倍) | 市净率(倍) | 股息率 | FY24A | FY25E | FY24A | FY24A | FY24A | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 行 | 业 | 评 | 级 | (十亿美元) | (百万美元) | （当地货币)（当地货币) | 空 | 间 | 分析师 | | | 长 | 仓 | 吉利汽车 | 买入 | 史迹/窦文静/梁晓钧 | 1 ...

Fixed Income Daily Market Update 固定收益部市场日报 Trading desk comments 交易台市场观点 Yesterday, we saw better selling on Japanese names NOMURA/JERA/KUB/MITCO/MIZUHO/MUFG. There was small selling on the BBLTB curve from global accounts amid the news that BBLTB would launch new USD issues in four tranches. PBs were buying Asia/Yankee FRNs with wider spreads (>+100). We saw mixed two-way flows on AU/KR lower-spread names. Chinese onshore accounts were buying FRNs of leasing/security houses. In Macau gaming, SJMHOL/MGMCHI/ ...

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry - The analog semiconductor industry is experiencing a clear internal differentiation, with power management ICs (PMIC) and signal chain markets stabilizing and entering a cyclical recovery phase after a deep downturn [2] - The mobile radio frequency front-end (RFFE) is still under pressure, while the automotive RFFE is becoming a new strategic growth area [2] - Global analog market recovery is indicated by Texas Instruments' price increases, with WSTS forecasting a 3% growth in global analog revenue in 2025 and 5% in 2026, although growth lags behind AI-driven sectors [6] Group 2: Automotive Companies - Geely Automobile (175 HK) reported a robust performance in Q3 2025, with revenue up 48% year-on-year, driven by resilient pricing of its Zeekr models [9] - Geely's gross margin improved to 16.6%, with expectations for continued growth in sales and margins due to new high-margin models and accelerated exports of new energy vehicles [8][9] - XPeng Motors (XPEV US/9868 HK) is expected to turn profitable in Q4 2025, with a projected 36% year-on-year sales growth in 2026, driven by new models and increased average selling prices [10][11] - Leap Motor (9863 HK) is also expected to see strong sales momentum, with a projected 52% year-on-year increase in total sales in 2026, supported by new model launches [12][13]

2025 年 11 月 17 日 (? ? ) 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 中国医药 中国医药 - 中国生命科学上游行业景气度上行 优于大市 我们认为中国生命科学上游行业正受益于多个积极的行业趋势，包括下游医药研 发支出增长、创新药融资复苏以及持续的中国创新药出海热潮。我们认为国产替 代仍具备可观空间，将长期驱动国内上游行业的增长。国内上游公司依托持续的 技术投入，已在一些细分领域缩小与海外巨头的技术差异，并持续获得客户认可 和市场份额。相关国内标的包括纳微科技（688690 CH，未评级）、诺唯赞 （688105 CH，未评级）、奥浦迈（688293 CH，未评级）等。 中国医药行业 武 煜, CFA (852) 3900 0842 jillwu@cmbi.com.hk 估值表 | | | | 市值 | 目标价 | 上行/ | | 收入 CAGR 净利润 CAGR | P/E (x) | | PEG | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司名称 | 股份代码 | 评级 | (US$m ...

Macro Economic Overview - China's economy is experiencing a comprehensive slowdown in October, but is expected to achieve an annual growth target of 5%. Real estate prices are declining rapidly, and retail sales growth has dropped to a one-year low due to the phasing out of old-for-new subsidy policies [5][6] - Fixed asset investment has seen a significant decline, the second largest since February 2020, with fiscal expansion slowing down and anti-involution measures suppressing infrastructure and manufacturing investments. However, due to a strong economic growth rate in the first half of the year, a GDP growth rate of only 4.5% is needed in the fourth quarter to meet the annual target [5][6] Industry Insights - The Chinese life sciences upstream industry is benefiting from several positive trends, including increased R&D spending by downstream pharmaceutical companies, a recovery in financing for innovative drugs, and a continued surge in the export of Chinese innovative drugs. Domestic companies are narrowing the technological gap with international giants through sustained investment [6][7] - The domestic upstream industry is expected to see considerable growth driven by domestic substitution, with companies like Nanwei Technology, Novozymes, and Aopumai being highlighted as key players [6][7] - The domestic pharmaceutical industry has maintained growth momentum in R&D demand, with significant increases in financing for innovative drugs, which surged by 443.6% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [6][7] Company Analysis - Baidu is focusing on accelerating AI application deployment, having launched the Wenxin large model 5.0 and new Kunlun chips. The company aims to enhance its core products and expand its global services, with a target price set at $148.40, maintaining a "Buy" rating [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $148.40, indicating a potential upside of 23.0% from the current price of $120.65 [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of AI applications through the launch of Baidu's Wenxin 5.0 model, which supports multimodal understanding and generation, and the introduction of new products and upgrades in various sectors [2][9]. - Baidu's Kunlun chips have been successfully deployed across multiple industries, with detailed updates on future product launches, including the M100 and M300 chips [2][9]. - The report emphasizes the growth of Baidu's autonomous driving service, "Luobo Kuaipao," which has expanded to 22 cities globally, achieving significant operational metrics [2][9]. Company Overview - Market capitalization stands at approximately $41.35 billion, with an average trading volume of $255.7 million [4]. - The stock has shown a 52-week high of $144.91 and a low of $76.86 [4]. Financial Performance - For FY23A, the company reported sales revenue of 134,598 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [10]. - Adjusted net profit for FY23A was 28,747 million RMB, reflecting a significant increase of 39.0% compared to the previous year [10]. - The report projects a decline in sales revenue for FY24A to 133,125 million RMB, with an expected adjusted net profit of 27,002 million RMB [10]. Shareholder Structure - Handsome Reward Limited holds a 16.1% stake in the company, while BlackRock, Inc. owns 4.6% [5]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, the stock has returned 0.6%, while over the past three months, it has increased by 36.0% [6].

Macroeconomic Insights - China's social financing scale has contracted for three consecutive months, indicating a slowdown in economic growth[2] - M1 and M2 growth rates are declining, suggesting weakening economic momentum[2] - The central bank may lower the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points and interest rates by 10 basis points by the end of March next year[5] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,073, up 0.56% for the day and 34.96% year-to-date[2] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.53% to 2,546, with a year-to-date increase of 30.08%[2] - The US Dow Jones fell 1.65% to 47,457, with a year-to-date increase of 11.55%[2] Sector Performance - In Hong Kong, materials, healthcare, and consumer discretionary sectors led gains, while energy, telecommunications, and utilities sectors declined[4] - A-share lithium battery sector surged due to increased demand driven by AI applications[4] Company Highlights - Tencent reported a 15% year-on-year revenue increase to RMB 192.9 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 2%[5] - Bilibili's revenue grew 5% year-on-year to RMB 7.69 billion, meeting consensus expectations[6] - Alibaba plans to revamp its AI application to compete with ChatGPT, aiming for a more integrated user experience[4]

Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed performance in the Chinese stock market, with Hong Kong stocks rising, particularly in healthcare, conglomerates, and real estate, while consumer discretionary, industrials, and materials lagged behind [3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 4.286 billion, with notable net purchases in Xiaomi Group, Xpeng Motors, and Pop Mart, while Alibaba, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and SMIC experienced the most significant net sales [3] - The report anticipates a trend of style switching in the Chinese stock market, with undervalued sectors like chemicals, consumer goods, and banks leading the gains, expected to continue at least until mid-December when policy stimulus clarity increases [3] Market Performance Summary - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,923, up 0.85% for the day and 34.21% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5,934, with a slight increase of 0.16% for the day and a year-to-date increase of 32.81% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,000, down 0.07% for the day but up 19.34% year-to-date [1] Sector Performance Summary - The Hang Seng Financial Index closed at 49,396, up 1.20% for the day and 40.58% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index closed at 19,533, with a significant increase of 3.34% for the day and 30.98% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Utilities Index closed at 38,428, up 1.17% for the day and 7.75% year-to-date [2] Company Analysis - Tencent Music reported a 21% year-on-year revenue growth to RMB 8.46 billion for Q3 2025, with Non-IFRS net profit increasing by 33% to RMB 2.41 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 3% and 4% respectively [4] - The report projects a slowdown in revenue growth to 12% year-on-year for Q4 2025, primarily due to normalization of offline performance revenue [4] - The target price for Tencent Music has been adjusted from USD 29.5 to USD 28.0, maintaining a "Buy" rating [4]

Company Analysis - Hesai Technology (HSAI US) reported a robust performance in Q3 2025 with total revenue reaching 795.4 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 47%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 1.4% [2] - The non-GAAP net profit was 288 million RMB, while the adjusted net profit, excluding one-time gains from an early-stage tech investment, was 140 million RMB [2] - The management raised the 2025 GAAP net profit guidance to 350-450 million RMB from the previous 200-350 million RMB, reflecting optimism about business growth [5] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,696, up 0.18% for the day and 33.08% year-to-date [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.39% to 4,003, with the Shenzhen Composite Index down 0.47% to 2,518 [2] - Southbound capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks was 4.467 billion HKD, with notable net purchases in Xiaomi Group, China Mobile, and CNOOC [4] Economic Outlook - The People's Bank of China indicated a commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy, with expectations of a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut in December and two interest rate cuts totaling 20 basis points next year [4] - In the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a historical high, driven by the Senate's approval of a budget bill to end the government shutdown, which is expected to reduce policy uncertainty [4] - U.S. economic data showed a decline in private sector employment by 45,000, marking the largest drop in two and a half years, contributing to a decrease in the dollar index [4] Industry Insights - China Hongqiao (1378 HK) is expected to see further valuation uplift due to nearly full capacity utilization of its aluminum production and stable raw material costs, prompting an upward revision of profit forecasts by 4-5% for 2025-2027 [5] - Hongteng Precision (6088 HK) reported a 13% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, driven by strong demand for AI products and automotive business, leading to a record gross margin of 23.5% [5] - The target price for Hesai Technology has been set at 26.7 USD, based on a 5.3x sales multiple for 2026, reflecting a 10% premium over industry peers due to its competitive advantages and strong revenue growth prospects [5]

Core Insights - The report highlights a structural upturn in the global PCB and CCL industries driven by AI infrastructure investment, with a projected 12.8% rebound in the PCB market by 2025 and an 18% growth in the CCL sector in 2024, indicating strong pricing power [4] - Pfizer is positioned as a leader in the pharmaceutical industry, with a forecasted 12% growth in non-COVID revenue in 2024, despite facing a patent cliff from 2025 to 2028 [6][7] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a demand surge due to AI, with significant growth expected in high-performance products, benefiting leading manufacturers [4] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,649, up 1.55% for the day and 32.85% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 1.34% [1] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 6.65 billion, with notable purchases in China National Offshore Oil Corporation and Pop Mart, while Alibaba and SMIC saw the most significant net sell-offs [3] Company Analysis - Pfizer's aggressive cost-cutting plan aims to save USD 7.2 billion from 2024 to 2027, with an expected operating profit margin increase to 26.2% in 2024 from 9.6% in 2023 [5] - The report anticipates that Pfizer's revenue will begin to recover in 2029, driven by new product contributions, with a target price set at USD 36.16 [7] - Beike's revenue for Q3 2025 grew by 2.1% year-on-year, with a focus on improving profitability in its core real estate transaction business [8] Industry Trends - The report notes a shift in investment focus towards energy, chemicals, and consumer stocks in the Chinese market, with chemical sector valuations at historical lows, suggesting a potential buying opportunity [3] - Japan's new government is expected to implement expansive fiscal policies, focusing on key sectors such as semiconductors and defense, which may lead to a decline in government bond prices [3]