全球市场观察 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,347 | 0.03 | 2.80 | | 恒生国企 | 9,148 | -0.22 | 2.63 | | 恒生科技 | 5,742 | 0.09 | 4.09 | | 上证综指 | 4,023 | 1.38 | 1.38 | | 深证综指 | 2,582 | 2.00 | 2.00 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,295 | 2.85 | 2.85 | | 美国道琼斯 | 48,977 | 1.23 | 1.90 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,902 | 0.64 | 0.83 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 23,396 | 0.69 | 0.66 | | 德国 DAX | 24,869 | 1.34 | 1.54 | | 法国 CAC | 8,212 | 0.20 | 0.76 | | 英国富时 100 | 10,005 | 0.5 ...

CMBI Credit Commentary Glenn Ko, CFA 高志和 (852) 3657 6235 glennko@cmbi.com.hk Cyrena Ng, CPA 吳蒨瑩 (852) 3900 0801 cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk Yujing Zhang 张钰婧 (852) 3900 0830 zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk PLEASE READ THE AUTHOR CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE CMBI Fixed Income fis@cmbi.com.hk Fixed Income Daily Market Update 固定收益部市场日报 Trading desk comments 交易台市场观点 Last Friday, ARAMCO 35s tightened 1bp, while FABUH 30 widened 5bps. Chinese IG names ZHOSHK 28/XIAOMI 31/BABAs/MEITUAs as well as TW lifers ...

2026 年 1 月 5 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 全球市场观察 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,338 | 2.76 | 2.76 | | 恒生国企 | 9,169 | 2.86 | 2.86 | | 恒生科技 | 5,736 | 4.00 | 4.00 | | 上证综指 | 3,969 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 深证综指 | 2,531 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,203 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 美国道琼斯 | 48,382 | 0.66 | 0.66 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,858 | 0.19 | 0.19 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 23,236 | -0.03 | -0.03 | | 德国 DAX | 24,539 | 0.20 | 0.20 | | 法国 CAC | 8 ...

招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 全球市场观察 2025 年 12 月 31 日 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 25,855 | 0.86 | 28.89 | | 恒生国企 | 8,991 | 1.12 | 23.34 | | 恒生科技 | 5,578 | 1.74 | 24.85 | | 上证综指 | 3,965 | 0.00 | 18.30 | | 深证综指 | 2,539 | 0.20 | 29.70 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,243 | 0.63 | 51.42 | | 美国道琼斯 | 48,367 | -0.20 | 13.69 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,896 | -0.14 | 17.25 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 23,419 | -0.24 | 21.27 | | 德国 DAX | 24,490 | 0.57 | 23.01 | ...

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,635, down 0.71% for the day but up 27.79% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 Index in the US closed at 6,906, down 0.35% for the day and up 17.41% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a slight increase of 0.04% to close at 3,965, with a year-to-date increase of 18.30% [1] Hong Kong Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index closed at 49,089, down 0.36% for the day, with a year-to-date increase of 39.71% [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index decreased by 1.45% to 17,628, with a year-to-date increase of 18.21% [2] - The Hang Seng Utilities Index closed at 38,202, down 0.71% for the day, with a year-to-date increase of 7.12% [2] Chinese Market Dynamics - Southbound capital recorded a net sell-off of 3.414 billion HKD, with major sell-offs in China Mobile, Alibaba, and Zijin Mining [3] - The A-share market saw declines in non-ferrous metals, utilities, and power equipment, while oil, defense, and banking sectors performed well [3] - The Chinese market regulatory authority announced plans to strengthen antitrust enforcement by 2026, targeting "involution" competition [3] US Market Insights - The US stock market experienced declines, particularly in materials, consumer discretionary, and financial sectors, while energy, real estate, and utilities outperformed [3] - Tesla faced significant setbacks due to delays in the Cybertruck project and a drastic reduction in battery material supply contracts, leading to a decline in its stock [3] - A Bloomberg survey indicated that institutional views on the S&P 500 for 2026 remain optimistic, with an average predicted increase of 9% [3] Debt and Credit Market Trends - US Treasury yields slightly decreased due to a rise in risk-averse demand [3] - Private credit assets in the US recorded their worst performance since 2020, with the Cliffwater BDC Index down approximately 6.6% year-to-date [3] - The demand for housing improved as the November pending home sales index rose by 3.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, marking the highest level since February 2023 [3]

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,819, showing a year-to-date increase of 28.71% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.10% to 3,964, with a year-to-date increase of 18.26% [1] - The US Dow Jones Index decreased by 0.04% to 48,711, with a year-to-date increase of 14.49% [1] - The Nikkei 225 in Japan increased by 0.68% to 50,750, with a year-to-date increase of 27.21% [1] Sector Performance in Hong Kong - The Hang Seng Financial Index remained unchanged at 49,269, with a year-to-date increase of 40.22% [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index also remained unchanged at 17,887, with a year-to-date increase of 19.94% [2] - The Hang Seng Industrial Index stayed at 13,971, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 24.19% [2] Recent Market Trends - A-shares rose last Friday, led by non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, and steel, while electronics, light manufacturing, and communications lagged [3] - The USD/CNY exchange rate fell below 7.0, with expectations of further decline to 6.95 in the first half of next year [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Finance plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies in 2026 to support consumer spending [3] - The Bank of Japan's December meeting minutes indicated a need for gradual interest rate hikes to avoid falling behind inflation [3] US Market Insights - US stocks experienced low trading volume post-Christmas, with materials, information technology, and healthcare sectors rising, while consumer discretionary, energy, and financial sectors fell [3] - Gold and silver prices surged significantly, influenced by margin requirement adjustments for futures contracts [3] - Cryptocurrency markets saw a decline as US investors sold off to offset tax liabilities from stock gains [3]

2025 年 12 月 24 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 全球市场观察 全球市场观察 每日投资策略 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 25,774 | -0.11 | 28.49 | | 恒生国企 | 8,914 | -0.29 | 22.28 | | 恒生科技 | 5,489 | -0.69 | 22.85 | | 上证综指 | 3,920 | 0.07 | 16.95 | | 深证综指 | 2,492 | -0.02 | 27.32 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,205 | 0.41 | 49.65 | | 美国道琼斯 | 48,442 | 0.16 | 13.86 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,910 | 0.46 | 17.48 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 23,562 | 0.57 | 22.01 | | 德国 DAX | 24,340 | 0.23 | 22.26 ...

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,802, up 0.43% for the day and 28.62% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,917, up 0.69% for the day and 16.87% year-to-date [1] - The Shenzhen Composite Index closed at 2,493, up 1.13% for the day and 27.35% year-to-date [1] - The US Dow Jones closed at 48,363, up 0.47% for the day and 13.68% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 closed at 6,878, up 0.64% for the day and 16.95% year-to-date [1] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, materials, consumer staples, and energy sectors led the gains, while healthcare, conglomerates, and telecommunications lagged [3] - The Hang Seng Financial Index closed at 48,788, up 0.52% for the day and 38.85% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Industrial Index closed at 14,047, up 0.41% for the day and 24.87% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index closed at 17,759, down 0.08% for the day and 19.08% year-to-date [2] Capital Flows - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of 3.13 billion HKD, with notable net purchases in SMIC, Xiaomi, and Tencent [3] - Major net sell-offs were observed in China Mobile, Alibaba, and Pop Mart [3] Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has kept the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged for seven consecutive months, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 20 basis points in Q1 and Q3 of next year [3] - The Ministry of Commerce announced temporary anti-subsidy measures on dairy products imported from the EU [3] International Market Insights - The US stock market saw gains in materials, financials, and industrials, while consumer staples, information technology, and utilities underperformed [3] - Nvidia made significant adjustments to its cloud business strategy, focusing on internal demand for chips rather than external sales [3] - Tesla reached a new historical high during trading [3] Interest Rates and Commodities - US Treasury yields rose, with weak demand observed in the two-year bond auction [3] - The dollar index retreated, while gold, silver, and copper reached historical highs [3] - Oil prices increased due to the US blocking Venezuelan oil exports [3]

2025 年 12 月 22 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 中国医药 医药 - 估值与业绩的重新平衡 估值与业绩的重新平衡 MSCI 中国医疗指数 2025 年初至今累计上涨 51.9%，跑赢 MSCI 中国指数 24.3%。 近期，医药板块有所回调（MSCI 中国医疗指数 10 月至今回调 14%）。我们认为， 近期的回调主要是估值与预期的消化与再平衡，这将为后续投资创造更优的布局窗 口。展望 2026 年，创新药出海趋势长期将延续，我们将重点关注已出海管线的临床 进展与数据兑现这一核心催化。政策端方面，《生物安全法案》虽已签署生效，但 鉴于其未波及 Medicaid 和 Medicare 的采购且对关联方定义明确，以及中国 CXO 美 国行政机构收入占比较小，我们预计该法案对中国 CXO 企业实质经营影响有限。 估值表 中国 医药 行业 武 煜, CFA (852) 3900 0842 jillwu@cmbi.com.hk 王云逸 (852) 3916 1729 cathywang@cmbi.com.hk 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 htt ...

通胀可能先降后升 美国政府停摆导致 10 月数据缺失，11 月 CPI 和核心 CPI 增速均大幅放缓，显著 低于市场预期。食品、能源、核心商品和核心服务价格环比增速大幅下降。11 月 通胀数据因转结填补方式(carry-forward imputation)而失真，预计偏差将在未来 3- 4 个月逐渐回补，12 月通胀可能反弹。数据公布后，市场反应平淡，预计此次数 据对美联储决策影响较小，12 月数据对 1 月议息会议的影响更大。我们维持联储 明年 6 月降息 1 次的判断。 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 资料来源：Wind，招银国际环球市场 0 2 4 6 8 10 2026 CPI 核心CPI CPI预测 核心CPI预测 同比(%) (5) 0 5 10 15 20 (%) 年 12 月 19 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 Economic Perspectives - 资料来源：Wind，招银国际环球市场 敬请参阅尾页之免责声 ...