美联储如期降息，更关注就业风险 美联储 9 月会议将政策利率下调 25bp 至 4.0%-4.25%，会议声明更加鸽派，强 调风险平衡发生转变，确认就业市场走弱风险上升。点阵图上调 9-12 月降息幅 度预测从 50bp 升至 75bp，上调 2025-2027 年经济增速和 2026 年通胀预测， 下调 2026 年失业率预测，暗示更大幅度降息将提振经济增长与通胀。鲍威尔在 记者会上称本次决定是"预防性"降息，利率水平向中性利率靠拢，但不代表 将转向宽松，强调美联储没有既定路径，未来决定将依赖最新数据。鲍威尔的 表态很难满足白宫与市场期待，国债收益率收回之前跌幅。近期就业走弱既有 需求放缓因素，也有供应减少原因，经济放缓依然温和。同时 9 月 CPI 增速可 能在能源与商品通胀推动下反弹，美联储 10 月可能再次暂停降息。随着经济持 续走弱，12 月可能再降息一次，联邦基金利率年底或降至 3.75%-4%。国债收 益率曲线可能陡峭化，10 年国债收益率年底可能升至 4.1%左右。因白宫持续 施压美联储降息，美元指数可能走弱。 2025 年 9 月 18 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国 ...

2025 年 9 月 18 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 公司更新 腾讯控股 (700 HK) 腾讯控股 (700 HK) - 腾讯 2025 全球数字生态大会：打造智能化与全球 化增长引擎 我们于 9 月 16-17 日参加了 2025 年腾讯全球数字生态大会，会议要点包括： 1）腾讯云明确打造"智能化"和"全球化"引擎的两大战略方向，AI 赋能客 户+全球化业务成为重点战略方向；2）智能化方面，公司加速 C 端和 B 端 AI 应用场景落地，并发布腾讯智能体战略全景图，全面开放智能体解决方案，帮 助企业打造智能体；3）全球化方面，过去一年腾讯云国际业务实现高双位数 增长，海外客户数同比翻倍，未来腾讯云将围绕基础设施、产品技术、服务能 力加强国际化业务布局。展望中长期，我们看好 AI 产品需求以及海外业务需求 成为腾讯云收入增长的重要驱动力。维持"买入"评级及目标价 705.0 港元。 | 财务资料 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (截至 12 月 31 日) | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | ...

每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk 2025 年 9 月 18 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,908 | 1.78 | 34.14 | | 恒生国企 | 9,597 | 2.24 | 31.64 | | 恒生科技 | 6,334 | 4.22 | 41.77 | | 上证综指 | 3,876 | 0.37 | 15.65 | | 深证综指 | 2,511 | 0.83 | 28.26 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,147 | 1.95 | 46.96 | | 美国道琼斯 | 46,018 | 0.57 | 8.17 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,600 | -0.10 | 12.22 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 22,261 | -0.33 | 15.28 | | 德国 DAX | 23,359 | 0.13 | 17.33 ...

2025 年 9 月 17 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 全球市场观察 全球市场观察 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk 港股分类指数上日表现 | | 收市价 | | 升/跌（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生金融 | 45,675 | -0.85 | 29.99 | | 恒生工商业 | 15,108 | 0.84 | 34.29 | | 恒生地产 | 18,991 | -1.46 | 27.35 | | 恒生公用事业 | 36,666 | 0.02 | 2.81 | | 资料来源：彭博 | | | | 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 1 环球主要股市上日表现 收市价 升跌（%） 单日 年内 恒生指数 26,439 0.19 31.80 恒生国企 9,386 0.23 28.76 恒生科技 6,078 1.48 36.02 上证综指 3,862 -0.23 15. ...

招银国际焦点股份 焦点股份 2025年9月16日 招银国际环球市场有限公司 | 公司名称 长 仓 吉利汽车 零跑汽车 中联重科 三一国际 绿茶集团 锅圈食品 瑞幸咖啡 | 股票代码 175 HK 9863 HK 1157 HK 631 HK 6831 HK 2517 HK LKNCY US | 招银国际焦点股份 行 业 汽车 汽车 装备制造 装备制造 可选消费 可选消费 可选消费 | 评 级 买入 买入 买入 买入 买入 买入 买入 | 市 值 (十亿美元) 24.0 11.0 8.5 2.9 0.6 1.1 11.0 | 平均日交易量 (百万美元) 168.2 64.1 7.7 9.1 2.4 16.9 70.7 | 股 价 （当地货币)（当地货币) 18.44 60.95 6.59 7.05 7.12 3.27 38.74 | 目标价 25.00 80.00 7.40 8.90 10.74 4.80 44.95 | 上/下 行 空 间 36% 31% 12% 26% 51% 47% 16% | 市盈率(倍) FY24A 10.50 N/A 13.80 18.40 10.00 36.80 30.70 | F ...

中美宏观经济与大类资产配置 2025年9月 核心观点 美国 经济短期滞胀：房地产滞胀，消费增速 放缓，通胀反弹，企业盈利增速下降。 政策宽松：美联储9-12月降息两次，明 年降息两次，政策利率最终降至3.25%- 3.5%；白宫对美联储控制可能加剧通胀 预期不稳，削弱美元低位；财政赤字率 小幅下降。 大类资产配置：超配大宗商品，标配股 票与现金，低配债券，看空美元，看多 欧元、英镑与新兴市场货币。股市进入 牛市后期，短期看好医疗、必选消费、 通讯服务、材料、工业等板块。美国股 指牛长熊短，不断创新高，适合长期定 投。 中国 经济弱复苏：房地产筑底，家庭消费改 善，通缩见底，企业盈利止跌。 政策宽松：货币流动性延续宽松，4Q再 次降息10个基点，利率降至低位；财政 政策保持扩张；反内卷与去产能政策启 动。 大类资产配置：超配股票，标配大宗商 品和债券，低配现金，人民币温和升值。 股市进入牛市第二阶段，板块轮动。短 期看好AI硬件与应用、互联网、医疗、 化工、机械设备、必选消费等。中国股 指牛短熊长，仅少部分股票牛长熊短， 长期投资重选股，短期投资重择时。 来源: 招银国际环球市场 1 美国 • 因汽油、进口占比 ...

2025 年 9 月 16 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,447 | 0.22 | 31.84 | | 恒生国企 | 9,385 | 0.21 | 28.74 | | 恒生科技 | 6,044 | 0.91 | 35.26 | | 上证综指 | 3,861 | -0.26 | 15.18 | | 深证综指 | 2,471 | 0.36 | 26.26 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,066 | 1.52 | 43.17 | | 美国道琼斯 | 45,883 | 0.11 | 7.85 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,615 | 0.47 | 12.47 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 22,349 | 0.94 | 15.73 | | 德国 DAX | 23,749 | 0.21 | 19.29 | | 法国 ...

Inflation Trends - The August CPI showed a significant rebound, with a month-on-month increase from 0.2% in July to 0.38% in August, slightly above the market expectation of 0.33%[5] - Year-on-year CPI growth rose from 2.7% to 2.9%, indicating a return to an upward trend[5] - Core CPI month-on-month growth increased from 0.32% to 0.35%, also exceeding market expectations of 0.31%[5] Employment Concerns - The number of first-time unemployment claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 235,000[6] - The projected increase in employment from April 2024 to March 2025 was revised down by 91,100, with average monthly job growth adjusted from 136,000 to 60,000[6] - The risk of employment deterioration is now seen as greater than the risk of uncontrolled inflation, leading to an 81% probability of three rate cuts this year[1] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates twice, in September and December, totaling a 50 basis point reduction, with the year-end target for the federal funds rate set at 3.75%-4%[1] - Further rate cuts are anticipated next year, potentially bringing the year-end target down to 3.25%-3.5% as economic growth stabilizes and inflation recedes[1]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fixed - income market shows mixed performance. New issues generally tightened, while the secondary IG space was largely unchanged. Greater China high - beta credits were mostly stable, and there were price movements in various bonds across different regions [2]. - LGFVs had a mixed performance, with demand for higher - grade USD issues but lackluster performance for higher - yielding names due to supply jams. Trading volumes were thin ahead of US consumer inflation data [3]. Section Summaries Market Performance - **Yesterday's Performance**: The new NSINTW 5 7/8 03/17/41 tightened up to 15bps from RO at T + 185 and closed 10bps tighter. Other TW lifers CATLIFs/SHIKON/FUBON closed 1 - 2bps tighter. The new KHFC 3 7/8 09/17/30 and the new KOMATS 4.196 30 tightened 2 - 3bps. Secondary IG space was largely unchanged. In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29s were down 0.5pt, and GRNLGR 28 - 31s were 0.3 - 0.5pt lower. LNGFOR 28 - 32s were 0.2 - 0.3pt higher. Japanese insurance hybrids and AT1s were up 0.3pt, and their Yankee counterparts were 0.1pt firmer. The new SMPHPM 4.75 09/16/30 was 0.1pt higher than RO at 99.8. PTTGC 51 - 52s tightened 1 - 13bps [2]. - **This Morning's Performance**: The new NSINTW 5 7/8 03/17/41 tightened another 7bps. The rest of TW lifers CATLIFs/SHIKON/FUBON were 2 - 5bps tighter. The recent HYUELE 28 - 30s were 1 - 2bps tighter. BBLTB sub - curve tightened 5bps. The recent MUFG Perp/SUMILIF 55/FUKOKU rose 0.5 - 1pt. HYSAN 7.2 PERP was up 0.5pt. TOPTBs were unchanged [4]. - **Top Performers and Underperformers**: Top performers included CCAMCL 5 02/08/48 (up 3.0), FAEACO 12.814 PERP (up 2.9), etc. Top underperformers included BIMLVN 7 3/8 05/07/26 (down 0.7), VNKRLE 3 1/2 11/12/29 (down 0.5), etc. [5] Macro News - On Thursday, S&P (+0.85%), Dow (+1.36%) and Nasdaq (+0.72%) were higher. The US Aug'25 Core CPI was +0.3% mom, and the US CPI was +2.9% yoy, both in line with market expectations. The US Aug'25 CPI was +0.4% mom, higher than the market expectation. The US Initial Jobless Claims was +263k, higher than the prediction. UST yield was lower, with 2/5/10/30 - year yields at 3.52%/3.59%/4.01%/4.65% [7]. Company - Specific Analysis (HYSAN) - Hysan raised junior subordinated 5NC2 notes of USD17mn, rated Ba1 by Moody's, callable at 103.375 in Sep'27, with a coupon rate of 6.75% and deferrable and cumulative coupon [8]. - The small private placement is to build a cushion of junior securities to keep the rating of HYSAN 7.2 PERP at IG. In 1H25, Hysan's turnover and EBIITDA grew 2.1% and 1.4% yoy to HKD1.7bn and HKD1.3bn respectively. Occupancy rates of retail/office/residential were 94%/92%/70% as of Jun'25. Its liquidity profile is solid with cash to ST debts at 2.3x, and it has a capital recycling plan of HKD8bn over the next 5 years. The net gearing ratio (perp as debt) was 33% as of Jun'25 [9][10]. - Analysts are neutral on HYSANs on valuation but consider HYSAN 7.2 PERP to offer the best risk - return profile compared to other Hysan bonds [11]. New Issues - There were no offshore Asia new issues priced or in the pipeline on the reporting day [12][13]. - Regarding onshore primary issuances, 101 credit bonds were issued yesterday with an amount of RMB160bn. Month - to - date, 658 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB638bn, representing an 18.6% yoy increase [15]. Other News - Adani and Vedanta are bidders for bankrupt GVK Energy. Alibaba uses its own microprocessors for AI model training. BHP will divest a 15% stake in iron ore deposit. Evergrande's property management arm received non - binding bids. Fosun signed a USD910mn sustainability - linked syndicated loan. Meituan plans to issue dim sum bonds. POSCO International signed a deal for LNG import. Pertamina plans subsidiary reorganization. PTT Global Chemical issued USD1.1bn unsecured subordinated perp. Reliance boosted asset - backed notes size. Yuexiu Property signed a HKD200mn term loan facility agreement [15].

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,086, down 0.43% for the day but up 30.04% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.65% to 3,875, with a year-to-date increase of 15.62% [1] - The US markets saw the Dow Jones increase by 1.36% to 46,108, with a year-to-date gain of 8.38% [1] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, the healthcare, energy, and consumer discretionary sectors led the decline, while materials, utilities, and industrials saw gains [3] - The semiconductor and rare metals sectors performed notably well, with significant inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 189.89 billion [3] Economic Indicators - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained interest rates and revised down its inflation forecast for 2027 to 1.9% [3] - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, aligning with market expectations [3] Investment Recommendations - Geely Automobile is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of HKD 25.00, representing a potential upside of 33% [4] - Luckin Coffee is also rated as a "Buy" with a target price of USD 44.95, indicating a 19% upside [4] - Semiconductor companies like Horizon Robotics and Beike Micro are rated as "Buy" with target prices of HKD 12.30 and HKD 93.00, respectively, showing potential upsides of 19% and 76% [4]