中东地区（包括海湾合作委员会国家和伊朗）2025年的电解铝产量约占全球 总产量（7,380 万吨）的 9%。我们预计当前的伊朗战争将从两个方面影响铝 供应：(1) 伊朗的铝产量（约 62 万吨）约占 2025 年全球总产量的 0.8%，如 果伊朗的电力基础设施和物流系统遭到破坏，将会对铝生产造成不利影响； (2) 霍尔木兹海峡的封锁将影响整个中东地区氧化铝和铝土矿的运输，同时 也会影响该地区的铝出口。美国总统特朗普透露空袭可能持续四周。我们预 计供应链不稳将支撑铝价。我们认为中国宏桥（1378 HK，买入）将从中受 益。我们同时看好创新实业（2788 HK，买入），公司在沙特阿拉伯的产能 仍处于建设阶段，因此我们预计当前的局势不会对公司产生太大影响。 （链接） 2026 年 3 月 3 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业点评 全球市场观察 行业点评 电解铝行业 - 中东地区潜在的供应受限将支撑铝价 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | ...

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update 固定收益部市场日报 Trading desk comments 交易台市场观点 Last Friday, the new SUMITR Float 29s tightened 6bps from RO at SOFR+71, and SUMITR Float 31s tightened 15bps from RO at SOFR+89. As for fixed- rate SUMITR new issues, SUMITR 29s were unchanged from RO at T+53, SUMITR 31s tightened 6bps, and SUMITR 36s were 5bps wider amid heaving selling. In Chinese IG space, belly-to-long-end TMT names LENOVO/XIAOMI/JD/KUAISH/MEITUA faced concentrated selling and widened 1-6bps ...

2026 年 3 月 2 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业/公司点评 全球市场观察 行业点评 中国汽车行业 – 首两个月新能源车弱于预期，关注 3 月新车发布带动需求回 暖 理想与蔚来符合预期，小鹏不及预期。理想汽车 2 月交付量仅环比下滑 5% 至约 2.6 万台，表现优于大多数同行，主要得益于 25 年 9 月底发布的 i6 的 贡献。我们认为，将于二季度上市的新一代 L 系列的市场反馈是理想实现全 年超过 50 万台的销售目标的关键。小鹏汽车 2 月交付量环比下滑 24%至约 1.5 万台，低于我们此前的预期。尽管小鹏过去四个月发布了多款全新的增 程车型，其 1-2 月累计销量仍同比下滑 42%至约 3.5 万台。蔚来 2 月交付量 环比下滑 23%至约 2.1 万台，其中蔚来品牌贡献约 1.5 万台。尽管蔚来在 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | 升跌（%） | | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,63 ...

2 Mar 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update BeOne Medicines (ONC US) BeOne Medicines (ONC US) - First full-year profitability driven by robust BTK sales BeOne's strong commercial momentum and ongoing cost discipline continue to translate into improving profitability, notwithstanding management's FY26 revenue guidance of US$6.2–6.4bn, which is modestly below our prior estimate of US$6.6bn. We continue to see substantial upside for Zanubrutinib (Zanu) to gain market share in ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Baidu, with a target price adjusted to US$161.7 from the previous US$150.7, indicating a potential upside of 29.9% from the current price of US$124.44 [2][14]. Core Insights - Baidu's General Business revenue for 4Q25 was RMB26.1 billion, down 5.7% year-over-year, aligning with Bloomberg consensus, while non-GAAP operating profit reached RMB2.8 billion, down 39% year-over-year but 12% above consensus [1]. - AI-powered business segments showed significant growth, with AI-native marketing services revenue increasing by 110% year-over-year to RMB2.7 billion, and AI-cloud infrastructure revenue reaching RMB5.8 billion, with subscription-based revenue growing 143% year-over-year [1][8]. - The report highlights key stock price drivers, including the reacceleration of overall advertising revenue growth, robust cloud revenue growth, and enhancements in shareholder returns, particularly through a new share repurchase program and the introduction of a dividend policy [1][15]. Financial Performance - For FY25, Baidu's revenue is projected at RMB129.1 billion, reflecting a 3.0% decline year-over-year, with adjusted net profit expected to be RMB18.9 billion, down 29.9% year-over-year [9]. - The non-GAAP operating profit margin for Baidu Core was 10.9% in 4Q25, showing a recovery from 9.0% in 3Q25, indicating improvements in operational efficiency [8]. - The revenue from AI Cloud Infrastructure for 2025 is expected to reach RMB19.8 billion, up 34% year-over-year, showcasing strong growth in this segment [8]. Valuation and Forecast - The report rolls over the valuation window to 2026E, with a target price based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, which includes various business segments and net cash [14]. - The adjusted target price reflects a valuation of US$35.7 for Baidu General Business, US$62.9 for Baidu Cloud, and US$62.8 for net cash and investments [14]. - The forecast for 2026E revenue is RMB135.0 billion, with a gross profit margin of 43.7% and a non-GAAP net profit margin of 12.9% [12][19].

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update 固定收益部市场日报 Trading desk comments 交易台市场观点 Yesterday, in the new issuance space, the new TOHOKU 31 tightened 5bps from RO at T+70. The new NTT Float 31 and OCBCSP 36 hovered around ROs amid active two-way flows. The secondary Chinese IG space overall closed unchanged. We saw balanced flows on TMT names KUAISH/MEITUA/BABA, better buying in CCAMCL FRNs and front-end ORIEAS from Chinese RMs, and better selling on FRESHK 27-29s by global money accounts. EHICA ...

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry - Nvidia reported Q4 FY2026 revenue of $68 billion, a 73% year-over-year increase and a 20% quarter-over-quarter increase, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 2.6% [2] - The company's EPS was $1.62, up 82% year-over-year and 25% quarter-over-quarter, also surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 5% [2] - Nvidia's gross profit margin improved to 75.2% from 73.6% in the previous quarter, exceeding the consensus estimate of 74.3% [2] - Management guided for Q1 FY2027 revenue of $78 billion, indicating a sequential increase of approximately $10 billion, with gross margins expected to remain around 75% [2] - The strong demand for computing power from large cloud providers, emerging cloud, sovereign AI, and enterprise sectors was emphasized by management [2] Group 2: Company Ratings - Zhongji Xuchuang and Shengyi Technology are maintained with a "Buy" rating, expected to benefit directly from Nvidia's sustained demand momentum and platform upgrade cycle [3] - iQIYI reported Q4 FY2025 revenue of RMB 6.79 billion, a 3% year-over-year increase, aligning with Bloomberg consensus [6] - Ctrip's Q4 FY2025 revenue reached RMB 15.4 billion, a 20.8% year-over-year increase, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 4% [7] - Salesforce's Q4 FY2026 revenue grew 12% year-over-year to $11.2 billion, meeting Bloomberg consensus expectations [7] - BOE Technology Group is projected to have 2025 revenue of HKD 14.533 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase, despite a forecasted decline in net profit [8]

iQIYI (IQ US) iQIYI (IQ US) - 4Q25 review: 4Q25 review: total revenue recovered on improving content performance iQiyi announced 4Q25 results: total revenue grew by 3% YoY to RMB6.79bn, in line with Bloomberg consensus estimate; non-GAAP net income was RMB110mn, up from RMB59mn net loss in 4Q24 and ahead of consensus estimate of RMB68mn, thanks to the operating leverage. Looking ahead, we forecast total revenue to decline by 13% YoY and 8% QoQ to RMB6.28bn in 1Q26E, as the company has been adjusting content ...

27 Feb 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Trip.com (TCOM US) Trip.com (TCOM US) - Results Results beat; travel demand remains resilient Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (26 Feb) 4Q25 results: total revenue was RMB15.4bn, up 20.8% YoY, 4% better than Bloomberg consensus estimates driven by an all-round beat across segments especially in corporate travel, package tour, and Others. Non-GAAP operating income (OP) was RMB3.2bn, 2% better than consensus, thanks to the beat in r ...

Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimates 27 Feb 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update BOE Varitronix (710 HK) BOE Varitronix (710 HK) - 2025 new plant profitability 2025 preview: near-term earnings dragged by pricing pressure and new plant profitability BOEVx will report 2H25/FY25E results in mid-March, and we estimate FY25E revenue/net profit of HK$14,533mn/378mn (+8%/-3% YoY), implying 2H25E revenue/net profit of HK$7,863mn/198mn (+8%/-10% YoY), with profit main ...