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敏实集团:Solid growth outlook from battery housing, robotics and AIDC-20260203
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-02-03 02:24
3 Feb 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Minth Group (425 HK) Solid growth outlook from battery housing, robotics and AIDC Maintain BUY. We expect solid 2H25E earnings for Minth, with FY25E net profit to rise 17% YoY. We also expect its net profit to rise even faster in FY26-27E, aided by continued growth in battery housing and new business contribution including parts for humanoid robots and AI server liquid cooling system. (Previous TP HK$38.00) China Auto Ji SHI, CFA ...
石药集团:地标性BD交易将推动长期增长-20260203
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-02-03 00:24
CSPC医药 (1093 HK) 里程碑BD交易将推动长期增长 与阿斯利康达成的价值185亿美元以上的重大许可协议 .CSPC已与阿斯利康(AZ) 达成战略合作,推进八个体重管理和II型糖尿病项目。该合作补充了阿斯利康现有的管 线,包括口服GLP1RA、注射用胰淀素RA和GLP-1/GCGR资产,同时显著验证了CSPC 的专有AI驱动发现和缓释月剂量肽平台。该协议授予阿斯利康(不包括大中华区)创新 长效肽药组合的全球独家权利,核心为SYH2082(一种临床级长效GLP1R/GIPR激动剂 )以及包含三个肥胖相关临床前资产和四个未来新项目。根据条款,CSPC将通过完成 初始资产的I期临床试验来主导开发。该交易包含12亿美元的预付款,潜在里程碑总额高 达173亿美元,以及两位数的版税。 可持续的外包收入流 . 在与阿兹夫公司最近的里程碑式合作之外,CSPC 在业务发 展(BD)方面建立了良好的业绩记录。自2024年末以来,该公司已签署六项外许可协 议,涵盖多种资产,包括Lp(a)抑制剂、MAT2A抑制剂、ROR1 ADC、口服GLP-1、伊 立替康脂质体以及一个AI驱动的化合物发现平台。这些交易不断验证CSPC的 ...
固定收益部市场日报-20260202
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-02-02 13:18
Last Friday, financial FRNs traded 1bp wider. In HK, the NWDEVL/VDNWDL complex surged another 0.5-3.0pts, following the market rumors that Blackstone might become NWD's single largest shareholder, but no agreement has been reached yet. FAEACO 12.814 Perp rose 1.5pts. SHUION 26-29 edged 0.2-0.6pt higher. SUNHKC 26 was 0.1pt lower, while SUNHKC 29 was 0.3pt higher. TW lifers were 2-4bps wider amid street selling on NSINTW/SHIKON. Long-end MEITUA/KUAISH also widened 2- 3bps. EHICAR 26 was down by 0.6pt. WESCHI ...
每日投资策略-20260202
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-02-02 07:26
Group 1: Macro Commentary - The manufacturing PMI in China has shown a decline, indicating weaker demand, with new orders and export orders decreasing [5] - Domestic and external demand weakness is expected to slow growth momentum, prompting potential policy easing before and after the "Two Sessions" [5] - GDP growth is projected to decrease from 5% in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026, with expectations of RRR and LPR cuts [5] Group 2: Industry Commentary - Apple reported FY1Q26 earnings that exceeded expectations, with a 16% year-on-year revenue growth driven by strong iPhone sales and a 38% increase in the Chinese market [5] - The gross margin for Apple improved to 48.2%, and the guidance for FY2Q26 indicates a revenue growth of 13-16% despite supply constraints [5] - The technology sector is expected to benefit from Apple's product cycle and collaborations with Google AI, with companies like Luxshare Precision and BYD Electronics positioned for growth [5] Group 3: Company Commentary - Thermo Fisher reported a strong 4Q25 performance with a 7.2% year-on-year revenue growth, driven by demand from pharmaceutical clients [6] - The company expects a revenue growth of 3.9% to 5.9% for 2026, with adjusted EPS growth of 5.9% to 8.4% [6] - Recent acquisitions are expected to enhance Thermo Fisher's capabilities and drive future growth, with an anticipated adjusted EPS growth of 7-9% [7][8] Group 4: Company Forecasts - Zhengli's battery sales forecast for 2025 has been raised from 18.4 GWh to 19.6 GWh due to strong demand from new electric vehicle models [9] - The average selling price is expected to increase, leading to a projected net profit growth of 550% to 591 million yuan in 2025 [9] - For 2026, Zhengli's sales forecast remains at 30 GWh, with an 8% revenue increase expected, raising the net profit forecast to 1.36 billion yuan [9]
赛默飞世尔科技:4Q25 results: Capitalizing on the growing pharmaceutical demand-20260202
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-02-02 05:24
2 Feb 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Thermo Fisher (TMO US) Thermo Fisher (TMO US) - 4Q25 results: Capitalizing on the growing pharmaceutical demand Thermo Fisher (TMO) delivered a strong 4Q25 performance, with revenue up by 7.2% YoY (the fastest quarterly growth within 2025) and adj. EPS up by 7.7%, beating Bloomberg consensus by 2.2%/ 1.9%, respectively. The upbeat growth in the quarter was firmly supported by the solid performance of bioproduction, research and s ...
正力新能:Higher earnings visibility amid better clientmix, possible battery price hike-20260131
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-01-31 00:24
30 Jan 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Zenergy (3677 HK) Zenergy (3677 HK) - Higher Higher earnings visibility amid better client hike mix, possible battery price hike Maintain BUY. We revise up Zenergy's FY25E net profit forecast by 4% to RMB591mn with better product mix than we had expected. Such trend would continue in FY26E to benefit Zenergy's revenue and gross margin. We expect GAC Toyota to surpass Leapmotor (9863 HK, BUY) to be Zenergy's largest revenue contr ...
现在服务公司:4Q25 results: solid AI business and margin expansion-20260130
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-01-30 08:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for ServiceNow, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [17]. Core Insights - ServiceNow reported a total revenue increase of 21% YoY to US$3.57 billion in 4Q25, aligning with Bloomberg consensus estimates. Non-GAAP operating income grew by 26% YoY to US$1.10 billion, exceeding consensus by 3% due to AI-enhanced efficiencies and disciplined expense control [1]. - For FY26E, management guided subscription revenue to increase by 20.5%-21% YoY to US$15.53-15.57 billion, with a further 100bps expansion of both non-GAAP operating profit and free cash flow margin to 32% and 36%, respectively, driven by AI-enabled efficiency gains [1]. - The AI product momentum remains strong, with Now Assist annual contract value (ACV) surpassing US$600 million in 4Q25, ahead of the previous target of US$500 million and on track to reach US$1 billion by FY26-end [1]. - The target price for ServiceNow has been lowered to US$215.00 based on a 40x FY26E EV/EBITDA, down from US$236.00 based on a 45x FY26E EV/EBITDA, reflecting sector valuation impacts due to increased competition from AI and LLM service providers [1][12]. Financial Summary - For FY26E, total revenue is projected at US$15.973 billion, with adjusted net profit expected to reach US$4.518 billion, resulting in an adjusted EPS of US$4.36 [2]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately US$122.22 billion, with a current share price of US$116.73, indicating an upside potential of 84.2% to the target price [3][4]. - The non-GAAP operating profit margin expanded by 1.4 percentage points YoY to 30.9% in 4Q25, attributed to improved efficiency and disciplined expense control [9]. Growth Projections - Subscription revenue is expected to grow by 20.3% in FY26E, with adjusted net profit growth projected at 23.2% [15]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 20.5%-21% for FY26E, with further growth expected in subsequent years [1][14]. Valuation - The valuation of ServiceNow is set at US$215.00 per share based on a target EV/EBITDA of 40x for FY26E, which is at a premium to the sector average of 29x, justified by the strong earnings growth outlook [12][13].
微软:Results beat; long-term structural growth story remains unchanged-20260130
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-01-30 08:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Microsoft, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [19]. Core Insights - Microsoft reported 2QFY26 results with revenue of US$81.3 billion, reflecting a 16.7% year-over-year growth, which is 1.5% better than both the forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimates [1]. - Operating income increased by 20.9% year-over-year to US$38.3 billion, exceeding forecasts, driven by strong performance in the Productivity and Business Processes (PBP) and Intelligent Cloud (IC) segments [1]. - The target price has been revised down by 3% to US$614.6, translating into a price-to-earnings ratio of 35x for FY26E and 31x for FY27E [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue growth in the Intelligent Cloud segment was 28.8% year-over-year, contributing US$32.9 billion, which accounted for 40.5% of total revenue [7]. - Azure and other cloud services revenue grew by 39% year-over-year, aligning with consensus expectations [7]. - The Productivity and Business Processes segment generated US$34.1 billion in revenue, up 15.9% year-over-year, representing 42.0% of total revenue [7]. Capital Expenditure and Outlook - Capital expenditures, including financial leases, reached US$37.5 billion for 2QFY26, up 66% year-over-year, with a significant portion allocated to short-lived assets like GPUs and CPUs [7]. - Management anticipates a decrease in capital expenditures in 3QFY26 due to normal variability in cloud infrastructure buildouts [7]. Earnings Summary - For FY26E, revenue is projected at US$327.7 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 16.3% [8]. - Net profit is expected to reach US$129.5 billion, reflecting a 27.1% year-over-year increase [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY26E is estimated at US$17.41, with a P/E ratio of 27.7x [8]. Share Performance and Market Data - The current market capitalization of Microsoft is approximately US$3.59 trillion, with an average turnover of US$12.08 billion over the last three months [3]. - The stock has a 52-week high of US$542.07 and a low of US$354.56 [3].
固定收益部市场日报-20260130
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-01-30 07:50
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - China's economic rebalancing and global liquidity easing are expected to support stocks, commodities, and EM currencies in 1H26, but may face challenges in 2H26 if US inflation resurges [3][11][17]. - The convergence of China's economic rebalancing and global liquidity easing is likely to bolster risky assets throughout 1H26, while the outlook for 2H26 is more cautious [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - In the Chinese IG space, MEITUA and KUAISH had balanced two - way flows, with slightly better selling on 10yr issues; ZHOSHK tightened 1bp; ORIEAS/CCAMCL papers with <5yr tenor tightened 1 - 3bps [2]. - In HK, FRESHK curve tightened 3 - 5bps; BNKEA T2s traded mixed; NWDEVL/VDNWDL complex surged 0.7 - 7.3pts; LASUDE 26 rose 0.9pt; FAEACO 12.814 Perp was 0.5pt higher; EHICAR 26 dropped 1.4pts [2]. - In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29 rose 1.5 - 1.8pts; SHUION 29/DALWAN 28 gained 0.4pt; DALWAN priced USD360mn new bond; LNGFOR 27 - 32/FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26 - 27 rose 0.3 - 1.2pts [2]. - In KR space, HYUELE 29s tightened 4bps; AU and JP fixed - rate IG credits squeezed 1 - 2bps tighter; JP bank FRNs tightened 1 - 2bps; JP insurance subs remained better offered; there were decent two - way flows in Yankee AT1s [2]. - In SE Asian space, BBLTB T2s tightened 2 - 3bps; GLPSP Perps rose 1.1 - 1.3pts; VEDLN 28 - 33s were unchanged to 0.4pt higher; INDYIJ 29 lost 0.4pt; MEDCIJ 26 - 30s were unchanged to 0.2pt lower [2]. - In the Middle Eastern space, long - end KSAs lost 0.1 - 0.3pt; SNBAB 6.15 Perp was 0.1pt lower; SECO 36 tightened 1bp; ARAMCO attracted better buying but closed largely unchanged [2]. Macro News Recap - On Thursday, S&P (-0.13%), Dow (+0.11%), and Nasdaq (-0.72%) were mixed; US latest initial jobless claims were +209k, higher than the market expectation; UST yield was lower, with 2/5/10/30 - year yield at 3.53%/3.80%/4.24%/4.85% [6]. Desk Analyst Comments - Regarding NWDEVL/VDNWDL, media reported Blackstone in advanced discussions to become NWD's largest shareholder; NWD confirmed potential investors approached, but no agreement reached; Cheng's family owns c45% of NWD [7]. - Cheng's family reshuffled group entities: transferred c54% of CTF Jewellery to Beyond Luck Limited; increased stakes in CTFH by 9.49% to 90.52%; CTFE to sell Alinta Energy to Sembcorp for AUD6.5bn (cUSD4.3bn) [8]. - Maintain buy on VDNWDL 9 Perp due to higher certainty of coupon payments; expect more corporate actions for NWDEVLs [9]. China Policy: Signals for Economic Rebalancing - China's policymakers signaled a pivot to "boosting domestic demand" in 2026 to address economic imbalance [10]. - Demand - side policies focus on stabilizing the property market and stimulating consumption; supply - side policies aim to address overcapacity; trade - side policies employ a four - pronged approach [10]. - The rebalancing process may lead to a GDP growth target reduction to 4.5% - 5% in 2026, but is structurally positive [10]. Offshore Asia New Issues - Issued: Dalian Wanda issued USD360mn 2 - yr bond at 12.75% coupon; First Abu Dhabi Bank PJS issued USD750mn 5 - yr bond at SOFR+75; Muthoot Finance issued USD600mn 4.5 - yr bond at 5.75% coupon [19][20]. - Pipeline: No offshore Asia new issues pipeline on this day [20]. News and Market Color - 101 credit bonds were issued yesterday in onshore primary issuances, amounting to RMB82bn; month - to - date, 1,920 credit bonds were issued with RMB1,652bn raised, a 13.5% yoy increase [25]. - Adani Group plans to raise up to cUSD1.5bn in JPY - denominated bonds and loans [25]. - China Overseas Grand Oceans and Yuexiu Property propose to issue 3 - yr dim sum bonds [25]. - China Vanke to make partial payment for 21Wanke02 onshore bonds on 30 Jan'26 [25]. - West China Cement's proposed acquisition of AfriSam Holdings has a consideration of USD150mn [25].
舜宇光学科技:FY25E profit alert in-line; auto/smart glasses to offset smartphone weakness in 2026-20260130
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-01-30 03:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Sunny Optical, with a new target price (TP) of HK$91.38, implying a potential upside of 45.3% from the current price of HK$62.90 [3][14]. Core Insights - Sunny Optical has announced a positive profit alert for FY25E, projecting a net profit growth of 70-75% year-over-year, driven by high-end specification upgrades, improved product mix, and investment income from a deal with Goertek Optical Tech [1][9]. - For FY26, the company expects revenue growth to be supported by trends in smart driving, AI/AR glasses, and high-end camera specifications, which will help offset weaknesses in the smartphone segment due to memory cost pressures [1][9]. - The report indicates a slight reduction in FY26-27E EPS estimates by 1-4% to account for headwinds in the smartphone industry [1][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB 42,056 million, with a year-over-year growth of 9.8%. For FY26E, revenue is expected to decline slightly to RMB 41,582 million, followed by a recovery to RMB 45,468 million in FY27E [2][22]. - Net profit is forecasted to reach RMB 4,610 million in FY25E, a 70.8% increase year-over-year, but is expected to decrease to RMB 3,909 million in FY26E before rebounding to RMB 4,699 million in FY27E [2][22]. - The report highlights a projected EPS of RMB 4.24 for FY25E, with consensus estimates at RMB 3.25 for the same period [2][11]. Valuation - The new target price of HK$91.38 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation methodology, applying a target P/E multiple of 23.4x FY26E EPS, reflecting the company's diversified business model and growth potential across various segments [3][14][16]. - The report assigns different P/E multiples to various business segments, with 23x for camera modules and handset lenses, and 25x for vehicle lenses, reflecting their respective market positions and growth prospects [15][16].