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策略观点:特朗普不确定性
招银国际· 2025-02-07 10:13
2025 年 2 月 7 日 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR ) 或 http:// www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多招银国际环球市场研究报 告 1 MN 宏观:特朗普关税政策来得比预期更早,可能改变政策路径。近期中国经济 有望延续复苏态势,住房与耐用品销售回升作为先行指标预示消费需求可能 广泛改善 ;远期经济面临贸易战 与政策刺激效应递减带来的下行压力,但逆 周期的政策会因时因势而动。特朗普关税政策短期 将推升美国通胀,延缓美 联储降息,推高政策利率,打击美股,中长期则 会抑制需求 和削弱产业竞争 力 。因此 ,美债收益率曲线可能更加平坦化,长债收益率与美元指数可能先 升后降。我们维持美联储 6 月和 9 月两次降息预测。 科技:受益全球手机 /PC 需求回暖、国内消费电子补贴、 DeepSeek 催化 AI 终端加速渗透以及 AI 服务器高增延续,我们预期科技板块有望继续跑赢市 场,建议布局两条主线: 1 ) Deep Seek 和 Apple Intelligence 加速端侧 AI 推 广落地 , OpenAI 宣布开发 AI 终端,国内补贴刺激需求,全球手 ...
策略观点 - 特朗普不确定性
招银国际· 2025-02-07 08:08
宏观:特朗普关税政策来得比预期更早,可能改变政策路径。近期中国经济有望延续复苏态势,住房与耐用品 销售回升作为先行指标预示消费需求可能广泛改善;远期经济面临贸易战与政策刺激效应递减带来的下行压 力,但逆周期的政策会因时因势而动。特朗普关税政策短期将推升美国通胀,延缓美联储降息,推高政策利 率,打击美股,中长期则会抑制需求和削弱产业竞争力。因此,美债收益率曲线可能更加平坦化,长债收益率 与美元指数可能先升后降。我们维持美联储6月和9月两次降息预测。 科技:受益全球手机/PC需求回暖、国内消费电子补贴、DeepSeek催化AI终端加速渗透以及AI服务器高增延 续,我们预期科技板块有望继续跑赢市场,建议布局两条主线:1)DeepSeek和Apple Intelligence加速端侧 AI推广落地,OpenAI宣布开发AI终端,国内补贴刺激需求,全球手机/AI终端将有望进入新一轮升级周期(手 机/PC/穿戴/眼镜/智能家居);2)服务器算力需求维持高增,GB200/300服务器/网络新架构升级,进一步推 动ODM和零部件需求(銅链接/液冷/电源)。产业链方面,看好1)手机/AI终端产业链(小米/比电/立讯/瑞声/鸿 ...
睿智投资|美国经济 - PMI显示经济放缓但仍有韧性
招银国际· 2025-02-07 08:08
美国1月服务业PMI超预期回落但仍处于扩张状态,显示经济温和放缓但仍有韧性,分项指数显示服务业需求放 缓、通胀回落但就业扩张,令部分投资者相信美国经济仍处于金发姑娘状态。制造业PMI时隔10个月重回荣枯 线以上,需求、生产、就业、价格和进出口均明显回升,可能因为房地产与耐用消费复苏、供应链修复和关税 预期下进出口抢跑效应,但特朗普关税政策可能为制造业未来前景蒙上阴影。总体来看,PMI数据小幅减轻市 场对通胀反弹的担忧,加上美国财长重申降通胀和不干预联储的承诺,美股和美债受到提振,但特朗普不确定 性并未消失。由于近几个月美元利率反弹、汇率走强、美股波动增加和特朗普不确定性,未来两个季度美国经 济和通胀可能温和放缓。但由于特朗普政策推升中期通胀不确定性,美联储对降息更加谨慎,预计3月和5月可 能继续暂停降息,6月和9月可能两次降息各25个基点。 服务业PMI低于预期,显示服务经济增速放缓。ISM服务业PMI从12月的54.1下降至52.8,低于市场预期的 54,服务业保持扩张但幅度放缓。根据历史经验,服务业PMI超过49预示经济扩张,本月服务业PMI对应年化 GDP增速为1.4%。商业活动指数从12月高位的58. ...
招财日报2025.2.7 美国经济/百胜中国、Thermo Fisher 公司4Q24业绩点评
招银国际· 2025-02-07 08:03
宏观经济 美国经济 - PMI显示经济放缓但仍有韧性 美国1月服务业PMI超预期回落但仍处于扩张状态,显示经济温和放缓但仍有韧性,分项指数显示服务业需求放 缓、通胀回落但就业扩张,令部分投资者相信美国经济仍处于金发姑娘状态。制造业PMI时隔10个月重回荣枯 线以上,需求、生产、就业、价格和进出口均明显回升,可能因为房地产与耐用消费复苏、供应链修复和关税 预期下进出口抢跑效应,但特朗普关税政策可能为制造业未来前景蒙上阴影。 总体来看,PMI数据小幅减轻市场对通胀反弹的担忧,加上美国财长重申降通胀和不干预联储的承诺,美股和 美债受到提振,但特朗普不确定性并未消失。由于近几个月美元利率反弹、汇率走强、美股波动增加和特朗普 不确定性,未来两个季度美国经济和通胀可能温和放缓。但由于特朗普政策推升中期通胀不确定性,美联储对 降息更加谨慎,预计3月和5月可能继续暂停降息,6月和9月可能两次降息各25个基点。 公司点评 百胜中国(9987 HK,买入,目标价:484.83港元)- 4季度基本面良好,25财年展望仍能乐观 24财年4季度业绩符合预期,基本面改善令人鼓舞。百胜中国24财年销售和净利润分别增长4%和10%,均符 合 ...
赛默飞世尔科技:A promising year ahead
招银国际· 2025-02-07 01:23
7 Feb 2025 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Thermo Fisher (TMO US) A promising year ahead Thermo Fisher (TMO) delivered a strong performance in 4Q24, with revenue up by 4.7% YoY and adjusted EPS up by 7.6%, beating consensus by 1.0%/2.7%, respectively. This marks an acceleration in earnings growth, with sequential improvements across all business segments. Mgmt's 2025 guidance projects revenue growth of 1.4-2.6% YoY and adjusted EPS growth of 5.7-7.5% YoY. Earnings Summary ...
美国经济:PMI显示经济放缓但仍有韧性
招银国际· 2025-02-07 01:23
2025 年 2 月 7 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 PMI 显示经济放缓但仍有韧性 美国 1 月服务业 PMI 超预期回落但仍处于扩张状态,显示经济温和放缓但仍有 韧性,分项指数显示服务业需求放缓、通胀回落但就业扩张,令部分投资者相 信美国经济仍处于金发姑娘状态。制造业 PMI 时隔 10 个月重回荣枯线以上,需 求、生产、就业、价格和进出口均明显回升,可能因为房地产与耐用消费复 苏、供应链修复和关税预期下进出口抢跑效应,但特朗普关税政策可能为制造 业未来前景蒙上阴影。总体来看,PMI 数据小幅减轻市场对通胀反弹的担忧, 加上美国财长重申降通胀和不干预联储的承诺,美股和美债受到提振,但特朗 普不确定性并未消失。由于近几个月美元利率反弹、汇率走强、美股波动增加 和特朗普不确定性,未来两个季度美国经济和通胀可能温和放缓。但由于特朗 普政策推升中期通胀不确定性,美联储对降息更加谨慎,预计 3 月和 5 月可能 继续暂停降息,6 月和 9 月可能两次降息各 25 个基点。 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 刘泽晖 (852 ...
谷歌-C:Increase AI investment to unlock growth opportunities in FY25
招银国际· 2025-02-06 01:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Alphabet, with a target price adjusted to US$234.00, reflecting a potential upside of 21.1% from the current price of US$193.30 [1][2]. Core Insights - Alphabet's 4Q24 results showed net revenue growth of 13% YoY to US$81.6 billion and net income growth of 28% YoY to US$26.5 billion, aligning with consensus estimates [1]. - For FY24, net income increased by 36% YoY to US$100.1 billion, driven by improved operating efficiency and cost savings from office space optimization [1]. - Management anticipates a significant increase in capital expenditures to approximately US$75 billion in FY25E, a 43% YoY increase, primarily for AI and cloud investments, which may pressure margins [1][6]. - The report indicates a slight reduction in FY25-26E net income forecasts by 1-2% due to higher-than-expected AI investments [1]. Financial Performance Summary - FY23A revenue was US$307.4 billion, projected to grow to US$350.0 billion in FY24A and further to US$392.3 billion in FY25E [2][11]. - Net profit for FY23A was US$73.8 billion, expected to rise to US$100.1 billion in FY24A and US$110.7 billion in FY25E [2][11]. - The consensus EPS is projected to increase from US$5.84 in FY23A to US$8.13 in FY24A and US$9.14 in FY25E [2]. Advertising and Cloud Revenue Insights - Google Advertising maintained solid growth, with Google Search & other revenue increasing by 12.5% YoY to US$54.0 billion in 4Q24, driven by ad spending in financial services and retail [6]. - YouTube ad revenue grew by 13.8% YoY to US$10.5 billion, significantly boosted by increased ad spending during the US elections [6]. - Google Cloud revenue grew by 30% YoY to US$12.0 billion in 4Q24, although growth decelerated due to supply constraints [6]. AI Investment and Future Outlook - Alphabet plans to enhance AI investments to unlock growth potential, with a focus on increasing AI capacity to meet rising demand [6][9]. - The operating profit margin improved by 4.6 percentage points YoY to 32.1% in 4Q24, attributed to operational efficiencies [6]. - Management expects variability in cloud revenue growth rates in 2025, depending on the timing of new capacity deployment [6].
中际旭创:Solid results despite supply chain constraints; expect for another strong year in 2025
招银国际· 2025-02-05 02:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating on Innolight with a target price of RMB186.00, indicating a potential upside of 45.0% from the current price of RMB128.25 [2][6]. Core Insights - Innolight is expected to see a significant increase in net profit (NP) for FY24, projected to rise by 111.6%-166.9% to RMB4.6 billion - RMB5.8 billion, with a midpoint of RMB5.2 billion reflecting a 139.2% year-over-year growth [1][6]. - The company is positioned as a key beneficiary in the ongoing AI infrastructure investment cycle, driven by strong global demand for computing power [1][6]. - Recent developments in AI spending, including substantial investments from major companies, indicate a robust outlook for AI-related products, particularly optical transceivers [1][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB10,718 million in FY23 to RMB24,269 million in FY24, representing a year-over-year growth of 126.4% [7][9]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB2,174 million in FY23 to RMB5,276 million in FY24, marking a 142.8% growth [7][9]. - The gross margin is anticipated to remain stable at around 33.3% in FY24, slightly decreasing to 32.3% in FY25 [7][9]. Share Performance - The stock has experienced a 1-month decline of 2.6% and a 3-month decline of 18.4%, indicating recent volatility [4]. - The 52-week high and low for the stock are RMB185.83 and RMB72.29, respectively, reflecting significant price fluctuations [2][4]. Growth Drivers - The main growth driver for Innolight in 2025 is expected to be the 800G product line, with a gradual ramp-up of 1.6T products anticipated in subsequent years [6][9]. - The company has seen strong demand for its 400/800G products, with a favorable product mix expected to shift towards higher sales of 800G products in 2025 [6][9]. Market Context - The report highlights that the fear surrounding the mainstream adoption of CPO solutions is overstated, as there are still technical challenges to overcome [1][6]. - Major AI spending initiatives, such as Meta's planned $60-65 billion capex for 2025 and ByteDance's $12 billion consideration for AI investments, underscore the ongoing demand for AI computing power [1][6].
微软:Cloud revenue growth and AI related monetization remain keys to watch
招银国际· 2025-02-03 02:33
3 Feb 2025 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Microsoft (MSFT US) Cloud revenue growth and AI related monetization remain keys to watch Microsoft reported (30 Jan HKT) 2QFY25 (June year-end) results: revenue was US$69.6bn, up 12% YoY (1QFY25: +16% YoY), 1% better than consensus, driven by a 3/2% beat in productivity and business process (PBP) / more personal computing (MPC) segment, while partly offset by a 1% short in Intelligent Cloud (IC) segment. Net profit was up 10% Yo ...
Meta Platforms Inc-A:Solid 4Q24 results; further stepping up AI investments in FY25
招银国际· 2025-02-03 02:33
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Meta, with a target price raised to US$835, reflecting a potential upside of 21.2% from the current price of US$689.18 [1][2][9]. Core Insights - Meta reported solid 4Q24 results, with total revenue increasing by 21% year-over-year to US$48.4 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 3%. Net income rose by 49% year-over-year to US$20.8 billion, 18% above consensus, largely due to favorable legal accrual reductions and lower restructuring costs [1][2]. - For FY24, total revenue and net income grew by 22% and 59% year-over-year, reaching US$164.5 billion and US$62.4 billion, respectively. Management anticipates revenue growth of 8-15% year-over-year for 1Q25, with total revenue projected between US$39.5 billion and US$41.8 billion [1][2][11]. - The company is significantly increasing investments in AI, with total expenses expected to grow by 20-25% year-over-year to US$114-119 billion, and capital expenditures projected to rise by 53-66% year-over-year to US$60-65 billion [1][2][11]. Financial Performance - In 4Q24, the Family of Apps ad revenue grew by 21% year-over-year to US$47.3 billion, driven by a 6% increase in ad impressions and a 14% rise in average price per ad, aided by AI optimizations [6][11]. - The annual revenue run-rate for Advantage+ shopping campaigns surpassed US$20 billion in 4Q24, marking a 70% year-over-year increase, with over 4 million advertisers utilizing Meta's generative AI ad creative tools [6][11]. - The report outlines a forecast for FY25E total revenue of US$187.7 billion, with net profit expected to reach US$65.9 billion, reflecting a 2.1% increase from previous estimates [7][8][11]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of US$835 is based on a 32x FY25E P/E ratio, which is a premium to the sector average of 24x, indicating confidence in Meta's long-term growth potential [9][10]. - The report highlights that Meta's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 28.0 in FY24 to 26.4 in FY25, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to peers [11].