2025 年 12 月 22 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 中国医药 医药 - 估值与业绩的重新平衡 估值与业绩的重新平衡 MSCI 中国医疗指数 2025 年初至今累计上涨 51.9%，跑赢 MSCI 中国指数 24.3%。 近期，医药板块有所回调（MSCI 中国医疗指数 10 月至今回调 14%）。我们认为， 近期的回调主要是估值与预期的消化与再平衡，这将为后续投资创造更优的布局窗 口。展望 2026 年，创新药出海趋势长期将延续，我们将重点关注已出海管线的临床 进展与数据兑现这一核心催化。政策端方面，《生物安全法案》虽已签署生效，但 鉴于其未波及 Medicaid 和 Medicare 的采购且对关联方定义明确，以及中国 CXO 美 国行政机构收入占比较小，我们预计该法案对中国 CXO 企业实质经营影响有限。 估值表 中国 医药 行业 武 煜, CFA (852) 3900 0842 jillwu@cmbi.com.hk 王云逸 (852) 3916 1729 cathywang@cmbi.com.hk 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 htt ...

通胀可能先降后升 美国政府停摆导致 10 月数据缺失，11 月 CPI 和核心 CPI 增速均大幅放缓，显著 低于市场预期。食品、能源、核心商品和核心服务价格环比增速大幅下降。11 月 通胀数据因转结填补方式(carry-forward imputation)而失真，预计偏差将在未来 3- 4 个月逐渐回补，12 月通胀可能反弹。数据公布后，市场反应平淡，预计此次数 据对美联储决策影响较小，12 月数据对 1 月议息会议的影响更大。我们维持联储 明年 6 月降息 1 次的判断。 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 资料来源：Wind，招银国际环球市场 0 2 4 6 8 10 2026 CPI 核心CPI CPI预测 核心CPI预测 同比(%) (5) 0 5 10 15 20 (%) 年 12 月 19 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 Economic Perspectives - 资料来源：Wind，招银国际环球市场 敬请参阅尾页之免责声 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the macroeconomic environment in 2026 will be influenced by U.S. midterm election pressures, defense demands in Europe and Japan, and China's focus on stable growth, leading to continued policy easing in the first half of the year [2] - The AI boom is expected to enhance efficiency and stock valuations but may also exacerbate job losses and economic K-shaped divergence [2] - The report suggests that the second half of 2026 may see a rebound in inflation due to global liquidity easing, a weaker dollar, and China's anti-involution efforts, potentially causing volatility in high-valuation assets [2] Industry Outlook Chinese Internet Software - 2026 is seen as a critical year for competing for user attention in the AI era, with a focus on lowering usage barriers, enhancing decision-making efficiency, and creating real value [2] - Companies with stable cash flows supporting AI investments and strong operational capabilities are expected to have higher long-term investment value [5] Semiconductor - The report maintains four core investment themes for 2026: AI-driven structural growth, China's semiconductor self-sufficiency trend, high-yield defensive allocations, and industry consolidation [7] - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 26% to $975 billion in 2026, with AI-related segments leading the growth [7] Technology - The global tech industry is expected to experience demand differentiation and accelerated AI innovation, with a focus on AI computing infrastructure and end-user AI products [8] - Key companies to watch include Apple, which is anticipated to have a year of innovation with new AI products [8] Consumer Sectors Essential Consumption - The report identifies three main investment themes: deepening consumption stratification, focusing on essential survival needs, and leveraging overseas expansion to hedge against domestic uncertainties [10][20] - Companies in the food and beverage sector, such as Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverages, are recommended due to their stable demand and attractive valuations [21] Discretionary Consumption - The outlook for the discretionary consumption sector is cautious, with expected retail sales growth of about 3.5% in 2026, slightly down from 4% in 2025 [11] - The report suggests a focus on survival-type consumption and low-cost emotional comfort products, with recommendations for companies like Luckin Coffee and Bosideng [11][21] Automotive - The Chinese automotive industry is expected to show resilience despite pressures from subsidy reductions and tax incentives, with retail sales of passenger vehicles projected to remain stable [12] - Key trends include intensified competition and the introduction of new models, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment [12] Pharmaceuticals - The innovative drug sector has seen significant growth driven by overseas licensing deals, but future catalysts are expected to shift from upfront payments to milestone achievements [13] - The CXO industry is anticipated to continue its recovery in 2026, supported by a rebound in domestic R&D demand [13] Real Estate - The report forecasts a continued contraction in the real estate market, with total residential sales expected to decline by 8% in 2026 [16][17] - Investment themes include focusing on stock market service providers and companies with strong operational capabilities in commercial assets [18][19]

2026 年度策略报告 浪涌潮退 前言 各位投资人朋友， 大家好，见字如面，欢迎大家透过我们展望报告的视角与我们共同开启全新的一年。 2025 年，关税摩擦持续扰动市场，AI 产业链依旧是热点话题，新消费和医药带来结构 性机会，高股息及红利相关标的也间歇性成为市场关注焦点。过去一年，我们前瞻性地 帮助投资人把握住了成长行业的投资机会，也在市场寻求确定性的时候及时提供了最优 选择。 对于投资而言，2026 年可能是更加挑战的一年，市场整体的估值中枢在震荡中已经持续 修复，如何挖掘更多的 alpha 成为大家关注的重点。尽管观点开始分歧，AI 或仍是最具 确定性的机遇，新消费和传统消费在挑战中寻求破局，医药需要更加精选个股，工业和 资本品可更多关注主题性投资机遇，而高股息和红利尽管已成为较为共识的交易，或仍 旧可以通过挑选基本面边际向好的子板块进行增量挖掘。 尽管面临挑战，令人鼓舞的是，优质的商业模式具备穿越周期的韧性，优秀的企业家拥 有攻坚克难的定力，中国消费企业的品牌影响力正在加速崛起，文化产业的底蕴正在持 续凸显，科技企业取得的突破令人振奋，业务出海有望带来长期增量。 机遇总是与挑战相伴相生，远见总是和实干 ...

2025 年 12 月 18 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观点评 全球市场观察 宏观经济 美国经济 - 就业小幅走弱 美国 10 月新增非农就业大幅萎缩，因年初政府裁员的合同买断结束时间集 中来临，私营就业保持扩张。11 月新增非农就业反弹并好于市场预期，但 主要集中在建筑、医疗和教育服务等少数行业，失业率意外升至 4.6%创近 4 年新高。由于政府停摆导致 10 月部分数据缺失，此次非农就业数据噪音 较大，货币市场反应温和。 就业市场整体走弱，但尚未大幅恶化。首次领取失业金和持续领取失业金人 数小幅改善，服务业 PMI 就业指数和 Indeed 网站职位招聘数回升，显示就 业市场仍有韧性。我们预计 2026 年经济增速和失业率可能走平，通胀先降 再升，美联储可能在 6 月降息一次。（链接） 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 25,469 | 0.92 | 26 ...

Employment Trends - In October, the U.S. added 105,000 non-farm jobs, a significant drop from September's 108,000, but rebounded to 64,000 in November, exceeding market expectations of 50,000[8] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6% in November, the highest in nearly four years, up from 4.44% in September[8] - Initial claims for unemployment benefits and continuing claims showed slight improvement, indicating resilience in the job market[2] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to see growth and unemployment rates stabilize by 2026, with inflation initially declining before rising again[2] - The Federal Reserve may consider a rate cut in June as a political gesture, with inflation potentially rebounding in the second half of the year[2] - The labor participation rate increased from 62.3% to 62.5%, with the broader U6 unemployment rate rising to 8.7%[8] Sector Performance - Job growth was primarily concentrated in construction, healthcare, and education services, while manufacturing jobs continued to decline for the seventh consecutive month[8] - Retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, maintained rapid growth in October, indicating consumer resilience[2] - The service sector's PMI employment index and job postings on Indeed showed a slow recovery, suggesting ongoing demand for labor[2]

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,235, down 1.54% for the day but up 25.80% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,825, down 1.11% for the day and up 14.11% year-to-date [1] - The US markets showed slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.62% and the S&P 500 down 0.24%, while the Nasdaq increased by 0.23% [1] Hong Kong Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index closed at 47,342, down 1.32% for the day and up 34.74% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index closed at 17,540, down 1.71% for the day and up 17.62% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index saw a decline of 1.74% for the day, with a year-to-date increase of 20.91% [1][2] Sector Performance in China - The Chinese stock market experienced a pullback, with materials, conglomerates, and consumer discretionary sectors leading the declines, while healthcare, staples, and telecommunications sectors outperformed [3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 0.82 million HKD, with notable net purchases in Xiaomi, Xpeng Motors, and Tencent, while Alibaba, China Mobile, and SMIC saw the most significant net sales [3] Economic Indicators - The Central Financial Office of China emphasized the need to expand domestic demand and continue a moderately loose monetary policy, with expectations for investment and consumption growth to recover next year [3] - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI showed accelerated contraction, with Germany experiencing its worst performance in 10 months, while France unexpectedly returned to expansion [3] US Market Insights - The US stock market saw slight declines, particularly in energy, healthcare, and industrial sectors, while technology, discretionary, and communication services sectors performed relatively well [3] - Tesla's stock reached a historic high, driven by optimistic expectations for autonomous driving commercialization, although it faced a post-market decline due to regulatory issues [3] - The US added more non-farm jobs than expected in November, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to a four-year high, which may not significantly impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [3]

Macro Economic Outlook - The economic momentum in China is weakening, with November economic indicators falling below market expectations, indicating a further decline in economic activity [2] - Retail sales growth dropped to a post-pandemic low, significantly affected by high base effects and demand exhaustion from old-for-new subsidies, particularly in durable goods like home appliances, furniture, and automobiles [2] - Fixed asset investment growth has sharply declined, with real estate investment hitting a historical low, and both manufacturing and infrastructure investment growth continuing to slow [2] - A comprehensive decline in the real estate market, durable goods consumption, and new household loans suggests weakening terminal demand, forecasting a sluggish economic growth momentum into Q1 2026 [2] - GDP growth is expected to fall from 5% in 2025 to 4.8% in 2026, potentially triggering a new round of policy easing, including a 50 basis point RRR cut and a 10 basis point LPR cut in Q1 2026 [2] Global Market Performance - Major global stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,629, down 1.34% for the day but up 27.76% year-to-date [2] - The S&P 500 and NASDAQ also experienced slight declines of 0.16% and 0.59% respectively, while the DAX and CAC indices saw minor gains [2] - The performance of the Chinese stock market was characterized by declines in healthcare, consumer discretionary, and information technology sectors, while consumer staples, utilities, and financials outperformed [4] Industry Outlook - The semiconductor industry is projected to maintain four core investment themes for 2026: AI-driven structural growth, China's semiconductor self-sufficiency trend, high-yield defensive allocations, and industry consolidation and mergers [5] - The global semiconductor market is expected to grow by 26% year-on-year to reach $975 billion in 2026, with AI-related segments leading the growth, particularly logic chips and memory chips [5] - Notable stock performances include Zhongji Xuchuang with a year-to-date increase of 407%, Shengyi Technology at 172%, and Northern Huachuang at 64.9% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the semiconductor industry, highlighting four core investment themes for 2026: AI-driven structural growth, China's semiconductor self-sufficiency trend, high-yield defensive positioning, and industry consolidation through mergers and acquisitions [2][4]. Core Insights - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 26% year-on-year in 2026, reaching $975 billion, with AI-related segments leading this growth [4][48]. - Key recommended stocks include Zhongji Xuchuang (300308 CH), with a target price of RMB 707, and Shengyi Technology (600183 CH), with a target price of RMB 90, both expected to benefit significantly from AI infrastructure investments [3][5]. Summary by Themes Theme 1: AI-Driven Structural Growth - The AI supply chain is experiencing strong revenue growth and profit margin expansion, indicating a robust demand for infrastructure rather than a temporary investment craze [5]. - Capital expenditure from major cloud providers is expected to reach $367 billion in 2025, a 59% increase year-on-year, and further rise to $495 billion in 2026 [5][6]. - The demand for AI technology is expanding beyond large cloud service providers to include sovereign funds and enterprise clients [5][10]. Theme 2: China's Semiconductor Self-Sufficiency Trend - The self-sufficiency of the semiconductor supply chain in China is identified as a core theme with long-term growth potential, driven by geopolitical shifts and domestic policy support [3][38]. - Companies like Northern Huachuang (002371 CH) are positioned to benefit from this trend, with a target price of RMB 460 [39]. Theme 3: High-Yield Defensive Positioning - Major Chinese telecom operators are recommended as core defensive positions due to their strong balance sheets and attractive dividend yields, with China Mobile offering a yield of 6.0% [43][44]. Theme 4: Accelerating M&A Activity in the Semiconductor Industry - The report anticipates an acceleration in M&A activities within the semiconductor sector, with key players actively seeking to fill technology gaps and enhance supply chain resilience [46][47]. - Notable transactions in 2025 include Northern Huachuang's acquisition of Xinyuan Micro and other strategic consolidations aimed at strengthening market positions [47].

Macro Economic Overview - The credit recovery in China remains uneven, with the total social financing (TSF) in November exceeding market expectations due to a rebound in off-balance-sheet financing and corporate bond issuance, while government bond issuance stabilized [2] - The growth rate of RMB loans to the real sector continues to decline, indicating weak credit demand, with household loans shrinking for the first time in history, reflecting low housing demand and consumer sentiment [2] - Corporate loan financing has improved, driven mainly by bill financing and short-term loans, but new long-term loans remain weak, indicating that corporate financing is more reflective of short-term liquidity needs rather than capital expenditure [2] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,977, up 1.75% for the day and 29.50% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 1.87% [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.41% to close at 3,889, with the Shenzhen Composite Index up 0.66% [3] - The US markets saw declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.51% and the S&P 500 down 1.07%, while the Nasdaq fell by 1.69% [3] Company Analysis - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308 CH) is identified as a direct beneficiary of global AI infrastructure capital expenditures, with a strong performance in 2025 expected for AI-related optical module suppliers [6] - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first nine months of 2025, with revenue up 44% and net profit up 90% year-on-year, and a gross margin increase of 9 percentage points to 43% in Q3 2025 [6] - The stock price of Zhongji Xuchuang has risen over 380% year-to-date, and the target price has been raised to 707 RMB, reflecting continued optimism in the AI sector and infrastructure investment cycles [6]