2025 年 7 月 9 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 全球市场观察 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 24,148 | 0.97 | 41.65 | | 恒生国企 | 8,709 | 1.15 | 50.97 | | 恒生科技 | 5,326 | 2.10 | 41.49 | | 上证综指 | 3,497 | 0.72 | 17.56 | | 深证综指 | 2,102 | 1.28 | 14.39 | | 深圳创业板 | 2,181 | 1.15 | 15.32 | | 美国道琼斯 | 44,241 | -1.31 | 17.38 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,226 | -0.86 | 30.52 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 20,418 | -0.89 | 36.02 | | 德国 DAX | 24,207 | 1.76 | 44.50 | | ...

2025 年 7 月 8 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 中国医药 理性看待创新药估值，寻找优秀公司的买点 MSCI中国医疗指数 2025年初至今累计上涨 41.4%，跑赢 MSCI 中国指数 25.2%。 短期来看，由于市场对于出海交易的频次和交易规模预期较高，创新药的估值持续 攀升，需理性看待股价上升空间。创新药属于高风险、长周期、高回报的行业。中 国创新药的研发实力具备全球竞争力，创新药出海趋势将长期持续。然而，由于创 新药的长周期特征，导致出海交易的达成往往需要较长时间的研发积累。 估值表 | | | | 市值 | 目标价 | 上行/ | P/E (x) | | P/B (x) | | ROE (%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司名称 | 股份代码 | 评级 | (百万美元) | | | | (LC) 下行空间 FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | | | | 三生制药 | 1530 HK | 买入 | ...

2025 年 7 月 8 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 23,888 | -0.76 | 40.13 | | 恒生国企 | 8,609 | -0.46 | 49.23 | | 恒生科技 | 5,230 | -0.08 | 38.93 | | 上证综指 | 3,473 | 0.35 | 16.75 | | 深证综指 | 2,074 | -0.49 | 12.87 | | 深圳创业板 | 2,130 | -1.57 | 12.63 | | 美国道琼斯 | 44,406 | -0.94 | 17.82 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,230 | -0.79 | 30.61 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 20,413 | -0.92 | 35.98 | | 德国 DAX | 24,074 | 0.58 | 43.71 ...

2025 年 7 月 7 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观及公司点评 全球市场观察 宏观经济 美国经济 - 就业超预期，美联储将继续观望 6 月美国新增非农就业大超市场预期，失业率也超预期下降，显示就业市场 仍然稳健，数据公布后市场对 7 月降息预期大幅降至 5%。但数据背后仍有隐 忧，首先新增就业主要由季节性的地方政府教育岗位招聘支撑，而私营部门 特别是制造业、金融、医疗保健和酒店休闲等支柱服务业就业大幅放缓。其 次，失业率下降主要因劳动参与率的下降，显示特朗普移民政策影响，劳动 力供给减少。 非农就业超预期将延长美联储观望期，降低近期降息概率。美联储仍需观察 两个月的数据才能评估关税对通胀的影响。预计通胀在 6-8 月可能小幅反弹， 9 月再次下行。随着经济放缓和通胀见顶回落，我们认为美联储可能在 9 月 降息一次，11 月或 12 月再降息一次。（链接） 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk 2025 年 7 月 7 日 | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌 ...

Industry Insights - The technology sector is significantly impacted by the recent US-Vietnam trade agreement, with Apple’s supply chain expected to benefit the most from the elimination of a major uncertainty [2][6] - The US will impose a 20% tariff on goods exported from Vietnam, while a 40% "transshipment" tariff will apply to goods from other countries, down from a previously announced 46% [2] - Companies with high revenue exposure to the US and production capabilities in Vietnam, such as AAC Technologies, BYD Electronics, and Hon Teng Precision, are likely to respond positively in the short term [6] Company Analysis - BeiGene (ONC US) has shown promising initial efficacy with its CDK4 inhibitor BGB-43395, which demonstrates good hematological safety and a lower incidence of neutropenia compared to other approved CDK4/6 inhibitors [6][9] - The incidence of grade 3 or higher treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs) was only 19.7% in the dose optimization cohort, significantly lower than the 29-55% range seen in other CDK4/6 inhibitors [6][9] - The objective response rate (ORR) for BGB-43395 in a small cohort of HR+/HER2- advanced breast cancer patients was 11%, with a disease control rate (DCR) of 55.6%, indicating potential for improved outcomes with longer follow-up [7][9] - The company plans to initiate a Phase III trial for BGB-43395 in second-line HR+/HER2- breast cancer in Q4 2025, maintaining confidence in its development [7][9] - The blood cancer treatment pipeline is competitive, with the BTK inhibitor Zebrutinib leading in new prescriptions and Sonrotoclax showing differentiated advantages over Venetoclax [8][9] - BeiGene is advancing clinical trials for Sonrotoclax in various indications and plans to submit new drug applications in China for R/R MCL and R/R CLL by 2H25 [8][9]

2025 年 7 月 3 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 全球市场观察 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | 升跌（%） | | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 24,221 | -0.26 | 42.08 | | 恒生国企 | 8,725 | -0.43 | 51.25 | | 恒生科技 | 5,269 | -1.35 | 39.98 | | 上证综指 | 3,455 | 0.89 | 16.13 | | 深证综指 | 2,065 | 0.61 | 12.36 | | 深圳创业板 | 2,124 | -0.03 | 12.28 | | 美国道琼斯 | 44,484 | 1.52 | 18.03 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,227 | 0.88 | 30.56 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 20,393 | 0.59 | 35.85 | | 德国 DAX | 23,790 | -1.01 | 42.02 | ...

2025 年 7 月 2 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 24,072 | -0.87 | 41.21 | | 恒生国企 | 8,678 | -0.96 | 50.44 | | 恒生科技 | 5,303 | -0.72 | 40.87 | | 上证综指 | 3,444 | 0.59 | 15.78 | | 深证综指 | 2,075 | 1.09 | 12.90 | | 深圳创业板 | 2,153 | 1.35 | 13.83 | | 美国道琼斯 | 44,095 | 0.63 | 16.99 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,205 | 0.52 | 30.09 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 20,370 | 0.47 | 35.70 | | 德国 DAX | 23,910 | -0.51 | 42.73 | | ...

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index closing at 24,284, down 0.17% for the day but up 42.45% year-to-date [1] - The US markets, including the Dow Jones and S&P 500, saw gains of 1.00% and 0.52% respectively, with the Nasdaq also up by 0.52% [1] - European markets performed well, with Germany's DAX rising 1.62% and France's CAC increasing by 1.78% [1] Industry Insights - The software and IT services sector is experiencing significant advancements in AI, with shorter iteration cycles and improved model capabilities [4] - AI is expected to drive growth in cloud computing and advertising in the short term, while its impact on sectors like autonomous driving and e-commerce should be monitored in the long term [4] - The independent AI application commercialization is still in its early stages, but B2B applications are showing positive momentum overseas [4] Company Analysis - Bosideng (3998 HK) has a conservative sales growth forecast of 10% for FY26, with management confident in outperforming the industry due to its strengths in product design and market promotion [6][7] - The company aims to enhance its product offerings with a focus on high-end and functional products, targeting sales of 40 billion RMB for its extreme cold series in FY26 [5] - Bosideng's FY25 results met expectations with a 12% increase in sales to 25.9 billion RMB and a 14% rise in net profit to 3.5 billion RMB [6] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bosideng with a target price of 5.55 HKD, reflecting a 13x FY26 forecasted P/E ratio [7] - The report suggests that factors such as low base effects, late Spring Festival, and product upgrades will support Bosideng's growth [7] - Other companies highlighted for potential investment include Tencent (700 HK) and Microsoft (MSFT US), both expected to benefit from AI-driven growth in their respective sectors [4][8]

Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in the Chinese stock market, while stablecoin concepts continue to rise, and the Renminbi reaches a new high since November last year [1] - The report indicates that the Chinese government will allocate 138 billion yuan in the second half of the year to stimulate consumption, amidst pressures for additional consumer stimulus policies [1] - The report notes that the U.S. economic data is weakening, which raises expectations for interest rate cuts, contributing to a recovery in global market risk appetite [2] Company Analysis - ZhongAn Online (6060 HK) has initiated a new share placement at HKD 18.25 per share, raising approximately HKD 3.896 billion (around USD 496 million) to strengthen its capital base and support innovation in fintech [5][6] - The company expects a 15% year-on-year growth in total premiums for the year, driven by strong demand in health and auto insurance sectors, with a projected growth rate of 20% and 22% respectively for these segments [6] - ZhongAn's stock is currently trading at 1.3x FY25E P/B, with a target price of HKD 20.4, reflecting confidence in its core insurance business and potential for further capital strengthening [7] Industry Insights - The report emphasizes the positive market response to Xiaomi's recent product launches, including the YU7 SUV, which saw a pre-order volume of 289,000 units within the first hour, indicating strong demand [8] - The report projects that Xiaomi's electric vehicle sales could exceed initial forecasts, with a target of 360,000 units for 2025 [8] - The stablecoin market is highlighted as having significant growth potential, with Coinbase's stablecoin business accounting for 15% of its total revenue in Q1 2025, driven by favorable regulatory developments [7]

Market Overview - Chinese stock market experienced significant gains, led by brokerage stocks, as the People's Bank of China and six ministries reiterated efforts to promote long-term capital inflow and stabilize the capital market [1] - European stock markets declined, with NATO members committing to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, but the market may be entering a profit-taking phase as these expectations are already priced in [1] - US stock market saw slight increases, with technology, communication services, and healthcare sectors rising, while real estate and utilities fell [2] Company Analysis: GuoShengTang (固生堂) - GuoShengTang, a leader in China's private TCM service industry, demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 12.7% year-on-year increase in offline patient visits in Q1 2025, showing a month-on-month acceleration [6] - The company plans to accelerate store expansion, aiming to open 15-20 new stores in 2025, including both self-built and acquisitions, enhancing its market leadership in key regions [6] - GuoShengTang launched the first national TCM AI avatar, which utilizes deep learning from a renowned TCM expert, aiming to improve diagnostic quality and address the shortage of quality TCM resources [7] - The company has a strong focus on increasing self-paid revenue, with less than 30% of its income coming from insurance, and plans to expand treatment and self-paid herbal medicine income [8] - GuoShengTang returned 4.2 billion yuan to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in 2024, representing 137% of its net profit for that year, and continues to maintain a robust cash flow for shareholder returns [8] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 52.75 HKD, expecting revenue growth rates of 26.7%, 25.9%, and 25.0% for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [8] Company Analysis: Carote (卡罗特) - Carote's sales growth is expected to remain weak in Q2 2025, similar to Q1, with a forecasted single-digit growth due to high base effects from the previous year and ongoing macroeconomic challenges [9][10] - The company has adjusted its sales growth forecast for FY 2025 from 23% to 14%, anticipating a slowdown in demand in key markets like China and Europe [10] - Recent tariff increases on steel and aluminum products significantly impact Carote's gross margins, with total tariffs on exports to the US potentially reaching 73.3% [11] - The rating for Carote has been downgraded to "Hold" with a target price of 4.64 HKD, reflecting the anticipated decline in net profit and sales growth due to rising tariffs and weak demand [11]