Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,946, with a slight increase of 0.07% for the day and a year-to-date increase of 29.34% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.29% to close at 3,875, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 15.62% [1] - The US markets showed no change, with the Dow Jones at 47,427 and the S&P 500 at 6,813, marking year-to-date increases of 11.48% and 15.83% respectively [1] - European markets remained stable, with the DAX and CAC showing minor increases of 0.18% and 0.04% respectively [1] Sector Performance in Hong Kong - The Hang Seng Financial Index increased by 0.59%, with a significant year-to-date rise of 36.57% [2] - The Hang Seng Industrial Index decreased by 0.23%, but still shows a year-to-date increase of 26.78% [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index saw a minor decline of 0.05%, with a year-to-date increase of 25.42% [2] - The Hang Seng Utilities Index increased by 0.29%, with a year-to-date rise of 5.79% [2] Chinese Market Dynamics - The Chinese stock market exhibited mixed results, with industrial profits declining by 5.5% year-on-year in October [3] - The Double Eleven shopping festival reported sales of 1.7 trillion RMB, surpassing last year's 1.44 trillion RMB, although the extended duration affected comparability [3] - The smartphone sales during the festival grew by 3% year-on-year, with Apple holding a 26% market share, while excluding Apple, sales actually declined by 5% [3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 1.33 billion HKD, with notable net purchases in Alibaba, Pop Mart, and Meituan, while Xiaomi and Tencent experienced net sell-offs [3] Economic and Policy Insights - The Chinese government is focusing on regulating price competition and addressing issues of "involution" in various sectors [3] - The State Council highlighted emerging fields such as outer space, the internet, and artificial intelligence as new strategic focuses for development [3] - Recent research indicates that China's open-source AI models accounted for 17% of global downloads, surpassing the US's 15.8% [3] - Alibaba is entering the AI hardware market with its Quark AI glasses, priced starting at 1,899 RMB, integrating deep ecosystem services [3] International Market Reactions - European markets remained flat with low trading volumes, while the German stock exchange reported a significant rise in Allfunds shares following acquisition talks [3] - The UK bond yields slightly increased, and the pound experienced fluctuations against the dollar [3] - The US stock market was closed, with futures showing slight increases, while the dollar index hit a weekly low [3] - Oil prices fluctuated due to geopolitical developments, with OPEC+ maintaining its production pause, which supported oil prices [3]

2025 年 11 月 27 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 半导体 半导体 - 光模块行业 - AI 驱动下 光模块行业 - AI 驱动下的强势表现方兴未艾 2025 年对具有高 AI 业务占比的光模块供应商而言是表现突出的一年，主要厂 商实现了显著的营收增长和利润率扩张。我们预计，在 AI 基础设施投资周期未 见减弱以及产品结构持续向更高价值解决方案升级的驱动下，这一优异表现有 望延续至 2026年及以后。我们重申该行业为我们的首选板块之一，并维持对中 际旭创（300308 CH，买入，目标价：591.00 元人民币）的"买入"评级。公司 是全球光模块龙头（2024 年市占第一），预期将会持续受益于海外 AI 资本开 支的扩张，以及 1.6T 光模块需求的提升。 中国 半导体 行业 杨天薇, Ph.D (852) 3916 3716 lilyyang@cmbi.com.hk 张元圣 (852) 3761 8727 kevinzhang@cmbi.com.hk 1 \\\\\\\\\\\ 的强势表现方兴未艾 AI 基础设施资本开支仍是强劲的推动力。美国四大云厂商（谷歌、微软、 Meta、亚 ...

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,928, up 0.13% year-to-date increase of 29.25% [1] - The US markets continued to rise, with the Dow Jones up 0.67% and the S&P 500 up 0.69%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 11.48% and 15.83% respectively [1] - European markets also saw gains, driven by improved fiscal outlooks in the UK, with the DAX up 1.11% and the CAC up 0.88% [1] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, healthcare, conglomerates, and telecommunications sectors led the gains, while materials, information technology, and energy sectors faced declines [3] - The semiconductor optical module industry is expected to perform strongly, driven by AI infrastructure investments, with significant revenue growth anticipated through 2026 [4][5] Company Insights - Tongcheng Travel reported a robust 3Q25 performance with total revenue reaching 5.5 billion RMB, a 10.4% year-on-year increase, and adjusted net profit of 1.06 billion RMB, up 16.5% [5] - Ideal Auto's 3Q25 results showed a net loss of 625 million RMB, primarily due to a one-time recall cost, but the gross margin remained high at approximately 20.4% [6][7] - The report suggests that Ideal Auto may face challenges in sales and gross margins in the upcoming quarters, leading to a downgrade in rating from "Buy" to "Hold" [7] Investment Recommendations - The semiconductor optical module sector is highlighted as a key investment opportunity, with a buy rating on Zhongji Xuchuang, targeting a price of 591 RMB [4] - Tongcheng Travel is also rated as a buy, with a target price adjustment to 25.4 HKD, reflecting a positive outlook on its core OTA business [5]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,895, up 2.67% for the day and 29.09% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 4.01% for the day and 25.60% year-to-date, indicating strong performance in the technology sector [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.92% for the day and 15.46% year-to-date, reflecting positive sentiment in the Chinese market [1] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index increased by 1.89% for the day and 35.30% year-to-date, showing robust growth in the financial sector [2] - The Hang Seng Industrial Index rose by 3.24% for the day and 27.06% year-to-date, indicating strong performance in industrial stocks [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index increased by 2.00% for the day and 24.95% year-to-date, suggesting recovery in the real estate market [2] Company Insights - Alibaba's 3Q revenue grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with cloud business revenue surging by 34%, indicating strong demand [3] - Alibaba's management expects a significant reduction in losses from its instant retail business in 3QFY26, aligning with market expectations [5] - NIO's 3Q25 gross margin exceeded expectations, but the company lowered its 4Q25 sales guidance to 120,000-125,000 units, which is below market expectations [5][7] Economic Indicators - The US dollar index is declining, with expectations for a rate cut in December due to weakening economic data [6] - The US PPI rose by 0.3% in September, driven by energy price rebounds, but core PPI growth was only 0.1%, below expectations [6] - Japan's labor market remains tight, with a job-to-applicant ratio exceeding 1.8 and an unemployment rate at a low of 2.5%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [3]

2025 年 11 月 25 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 公司点评 百胜中国（9987 HK/ YUMC US，买入，目标价：457.48港元/ 58.56 美元） — 2025 年投资者日点评 尽管宏观环境严峻，但我们认为百胜中国韧性十足。根据我们的测算，肯德 基与必胜客在25年前10个月的同店销售恢复率（对比2019年）高达88%， 远优于行业平均的 70%。我们认为超额表现主要归功于公司坚持提供「优质 美味且物超所值」的产品。就公司指引（26–28 财年目标）而言，我们认为 主要的超预期来自必胜客（特别在门店扩张与餐厅层面营运利润率），而肯 德基的数据则略低于预期（主要在餐厅层面营运利润率）。此外，百胜中国 提高股息以及承诺自 27 财年起将 100%自由现金流用于回馈股东，我们对此 计划感到满意。 展望未来，百胜中国不仅将持续强化性价比，更会聚焦核心（如明星产品）、 开发市场空白、吸纳新客群并捕捉不同场合的新需求。在此之上，通过执行 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.co ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the pharmaceutical sector, indicating a potential upside of over 15% in the next 12 months [2][30]. Core Insights - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has increased by 62.8% from early 2025, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 32.2%. However, there has been a recent pullback of 8% in the healthcare sector since October [1]. - The report highlights a resurgence in the demand for domestic innovative drug research and development, driven by a recovery in capital market financing and an increase in overseas transactions for innovative drugs [1][3]. - Major multinational corporations (MNCs) are actively pursuing acquisitions in the pharmaceutical sector, with significant transactions indicating strong motivation to acquire quality assets [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of clinical advancements in authorized innovative drug pipelines overseas as key catalysts for the sector [3]. Summary by Sections Section: Investment Opportunities - The report recommends buying shares of companies such as 三生制药 (Sangfor), 固生堂 (Gushengtang), 药明合联 (WuXi AppTec), 巨子生物 (Giant Biologics), 信达生物 (Innovent Biologics), and 中国生物制药 (China National Pharmaceutical Group) due to their attractive valuations and growth potential [2][3]. Section: Market Trends - The report notes that from January to October 2025, China's innovative drug overseas transaction amounts accounted for 38% of the global total, with upfront payments making up 50%, significantly higher than the figures from 2020 [3]. - The report also points out that the pressure on medical insurance revenue and expenditure remains, with a 4.6% year-on-year increase in income and a 1.7% decrease in expenditure from January to September 2025 [3]. Section: Clinical Development - The report highlights that Pfizer is set to initiate seven clinical trials related to its PD-1/VEGF drug candidate, which will cover over ten indications and innovative combination therapies by 2026 [3].

宏观点评 2025 年 11 月 24 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 | | 收市价 | | 升/跌（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生金融 | 46,658 | -2.12 | 32.79 | | 恒生工商业 | 13,846 | -2.59 | 23.07 | | 恒生地产 | 18,268 | -2.45 | 22.50 | | 恒生公用事业 | 37,405 | -0.91 | 4.88 | | 资料来源：彭博 | | | | 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 1 中国股市大跌，港股医疗保健、原材料与可选消费领跌，电讯、综合与公用 事业跑赢，南向资金净买入 1.05 亿港元，腾讯、小米与阿里巴巴净买入居前， 华虹半导体、赣锋锂业与中芯国际净卖出最多。A 股工贸综合、有色金属与 化工跌幅居前，媒体娱乐、家电与食品饮料跌幅最小。国债收益率走平，人 民币兑美元小幅上涨。 日本批准 21.3 万亿日元经济刺 ...

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update 固定收益部市场日报 Trading desk comments 交易台市场观点 Yesterday, the new BBLTB 35s closed 1bp wider from issuance at T+97, while the new BBLTB 30s tightened 1bp from T+82. The new SMBCAC 35s closed 2-3bps tighter from RO at T+115 amid AM/PB clients buying, while there were better selling flows on the existing SMBCAC 28s/34s. In Asia IG space, TW lifers and KR/TH/SG T2s recovered and closed 1-2bps tighter. On the other hand, there were better selling flows on JP corp ...

2025 年 11 月 21 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 英伟达（NVDA US，未评级）再次交出了超预期的季度业绩。公司三季度收入大 幅增长至 570 亿美元，同比增长 62%，环比增长 22%，超出彭博一致预期/公司 指引 3%/6%。公司本季度收入环比增加 100 亿美元，显著超出 40-50 亿美元的历 史正常水平。Non-GAAP 毛利率为 73.6%，略低于彭博预期但小幅超出公司指 引。毛利率环比提升 1.0 个百分点，主要得益于数据中心产品组合升级、交货周 期缩短以及成本结构优化。管理层给出了强劲的四季度指引：预计收入将达到 650 亿美元，同比增长 65%，环比增长 14%，高于彭博预期的 620 亿美元。这意 味着公司下季度将实现 80 亿美元的大幅环比增长。四季度 non-GAAP 毛利率指 引为 75.0%，符合公司此前预计毛利率将在年底达到 75%左右的目标。对于 2027 财年，管理层预计毛利率将持续维持在 75%。 值得注意的是，英伟达在多重挑战下仍交出了出色的业绩，例如：1）受出口管 制，中国市场的收入贡献几乎忽略不计；2）市场对 AI 行业是否存在泡沫产生 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights Nvidia's strong quarterly performance with revenue reaching $57 billion, a year-on-year increase of 62% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22%, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates by 3% and guidance by 6% [2] - Nvidia's management provided a robust guidance for Q4, expecting revenue to reach $65 billion, which indicates a year-on-year growth of 65% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 14%, significantly above market expectations [6] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift towards AI applications, with companies like SK Hynix planning to increase DRAM production to meet the growing demand [5] Industry Commentary - The semiconductor industry, particularly Nvidia, is alleviating market concerns regarding an AI bubble through strong execution and guidance [6] - The report notes that Nvidia's gross margin for the quarter was 73.6%, slightly below consensus but higher than guidance, reflecting improvements in product mix and cost structure [2] - The report anticipates that the AI supply chain will continue to outperform the market until 2026, driven by strong demand for AI-related products [6] Company Analysis - NetEase reported a total revenue of RMB 28.4 billion for Q3 2025, an 8% year-on-year increase, although slightly below consensus expectations [6] - Palo Alto Networks achieved a revenue of $2.5 billion for Q1 FY26, a 15.7% year-on-year growth, exceeding consensus estimates [6] - Stone Pharmaceutical's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was RMB 19.9 billion, with a notable contribution from licensing income, indicating a sustainable growth trajectory [7][9]