2026 年 3 月 20 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 Economic Perspectives - 联储释放偏鹰信号 美联储 3 月议息会议释放鹰派信号：会议声明新提及中东地缘政治风险，为后 续可能的政策转向埋下伏笔；点阵图上调经济和通胀预测，全年降息幅度不 变。货币政策路径的点阵图票型方差下降，显示联储整体共识加深；鲍威尔记 者会偏鹰，更强调通胀风险，认为未来油价是否影响货币政策将取决于通胀预 期的稳定。会议结束后，市场对全年降息幅度预期从 26bp 降至 11bp。但我们 认为市场可能过度解读联储鹰派信号，一旦中东地缘风险缓和或就业市场明显 转弱，联储政策立场可能迅速转向。我们维持联储 26 年将降息 1 次的预测。短 期内，美元可能保持强势，油价高企将抬升全球通胀中枢并推迟央行降息节奏 预期，推高长端利率与期限溢价，压制风险资产和贵金属等表现。最终，央行 政策路径和大类资产影响将取决于中东冲突演进和油价见顶时间。中长期看， 地缘冲击引发的估值压缩和利率抬升可能为 AI 产业龙头、贵金属和中长期国债 等优质资产创造良好配置窗口。 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 ...

20 Mar 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Xiaomi (1810 HK) Xiaomi (1810 HK) - Key Key takeaways of new-gen SU7 and new MiMo- V2 model releases Xiaomi hosted its flagship product launch event yesterday, debuting the new- gen SU7 EV and introducing three new MiMo-V2 models (Pro/Omni/TTS). We view the new-gen SU7's feature upgrade and enhanced battery range as highly competitive in the premium EV segment, continuing the strong momentum from its previous generation, and the ...

20 Mar 2026 Alibaba's 3QFY26 (March year-end) revenue was RMB284.8bn, up 1.7% YoY, and 2% below Bloomberg consensus. Adj. EBITA for the quarter was RMB23.4bn, down 57% YoY and below consensus of RMB31.4bn, mainly due to continued investments in quick commerce (QC), user experience, and technology. However, cloud business development remains a bright spot, with YoY revenue growth accelerating to 36%, 2ppts ahead of consensus. Management noted a recovery in customer management revenue (CMR), with YoY growth i ...

20 Mar 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK) Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK) Chuangxin hosted a post-results analyst meeting yesterday (19 Mar). Questions were mostly around the progress of aluminium capacity construction in Saudi Arabia as well as the acquisition of coal mine through connected transaction. Key takeaways: (1) Saudi project is in good progress with no disruption so far; (2) the all-in production cost in Saudi is expected to be ...

20 Mar 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Dmall Inc (2586 HK) Dmall Inc (2586 HK) - FY25 FY25 review: investing in AI to drive dual profitability growth in revenue and profitability Dmall announced FY25 results: total revenue grew by 20% YoY to RMB2.23bn, largely in line with our estimate; adjusted net profit increased by 583% YoY to RMB203mn, ahead of our estimate of RMB134mn, thanks to the operating leverage and effective cost control. The company leverages AI to driv ...

20 Mar 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) - High growth potential with unique positioning Transfer coverage with a BUY rating. Management has raised its revenue CAGR guidance for the next few years from 50% to 60% after Horizon SuperDrive (HSD) rollouts. We believe Horizon is well positioned with its rising market share in city NOA solutions, upcoming cockpit-driving fusion solutions, pilot operation of robotaxis, an ...

19 Mar 2026 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimates | Target Price | US$24.00 | | --- | --- | | (Previous TP | US$25.50) | | Up/Downside | 75.3% | | Current Price | US$13.69 | CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Kanzhun Limited (BZ US) Kanzhun Limited (BZ US) - shareholder return 4Q25 results: resilient recruitment demand; increasing shareholder return Boss Zhipin announced 4Q25 results: total revenue grew by 14% YoY to RMB2.08bn, and non-GAAP net income was up by 2 ...

2026 年 3 月 19 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业/公司点评 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,025 | 0.61 | 1.54 | | 恒生国企 | 8,836 | 0.10 | -0.88 | | 恒生科技 | 5,108 | 0.01 | -7.39 | | 上证综指 | 4,063 | 0.32 | 2.37 | | 深证综指 | 2,681 | 0.97 | 5.92 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,346 | 2.02 | 4.47 | | 美国道琼斯 | 46,225 | -1.63 | -3.82 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,625 | -1.36 | -3.23 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 22,152 | -1.46 | -4.69 | | 德国 DAX | 23,502 | -0.96 | -4.03 | | 法国 CAC | 7,970 ...

19 Mar 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Kingdee (268 HK) Kingdee (268 HK) - Committed Committed to AI transformation Kingdee reported its 2025 results: revenue was RMB7.0bn, up 12.0% YoY (2024: +10.2% YoY), in line with Bloomberg consensus; net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB92.9mn (2024: loss of RMB142.1mn), below Bloomberg consensus of RMB132mn. In this print, Kingdee demonstrated its capability to deliver healthy revenue growth with improving o ...

Geely Automobile (175 HK) We expect more resilient margins than peers Maintain BUY. Although Geely's 4Q25 GPM missed our prior forecast, its management's upbeat tone gives us more confidence in its GPM outlook. We believe that Geely is better positioned than most peers with its sales growth outlook, cost reduction efforts, and overseas sales potential. Unlike some investors, we do not view its synergy with parent company and partnerships with other players as a valuation drag given its track record in the p ...