2025 年 4 月 9 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 半导体 美国关税对中国半导体行业影响 美东时间 4 月 2 日，美国政府宣布了"对等关税"政策。4 月 4 日，中国发布 了对美的关税反制措施。虽然本次美国的"对等关税"不包括半导体（除半导 体设备），但我们认为后续美国有可能针对半导体行业出台额外的关税政策。 随着地缘风险加剧，我们认为中国半导体国产替代的趋势有望加速，半导体行 业将会受益，建议关注国产替代属性较强的公司：1）晶圆代工厂，如中芯国 际（981 HK）、华虹半导体（1347 HK），2）半导体设备制造，如北方华创 （002371 CH），3）芯片设计公司，尤其是涉及人工智能方向以及模拟半导 体领域的芯片企业，这些细分赛道龙头以美国公司为代表（英伟达、高通、德 州仪器等），下游国产替代意愿预期将加强，利好卓胜微（300782 CH）、贝 克微（2149 HK）等公司。同时，在全球经济、政策不确定性增加的背景下， 我们预期在未来的一两周内（如新关税将于 4 月 9 日生效），全球股市将面临 巨大波动。投资者可能会寻求安全港，而高股息防御策略将受到部分偏好保守 策略的投资人的 ...

2025 年 4 月 9 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业及公司点评 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 20,128 | 1.51 | 18.07 | | 恒生国企 | 7,431 | 2.31 | 28.81 | | 恒生科技 | 4,568 | 3.79 | 21.36 | | 上证综指 | 3,146 | 1.58 | 5.74 | | 深证综指 | 1,792 | 0.81 | -2.50 | | 深圳创业板 | 1,840 | 1.83 | -2.70 | | 美国道琼斯 | 37,646 | -0.84 | -0.12 | | 美国标普 500 | 4,983 | -1.57 | 4.46 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 15,268 | -2.15 | 1.71 | | 德国 DAX | 20,280 | 2.48 | 21.06 | | 法国 CAC | ...

2025 年 4 月 8 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业点评 全球市场观察 行业点评 科技行业 - 美国关税影响更新：市场波动后对相关问题的解答 继上周发布的报告之后，我们收到了若干投资者提问，我们的回答如下：1） "美国原产部件含量 20%"关税豁免：尽管美国芯片（如高通 SoC/英特尔 CPU/英伟达 GPU）占智能手机/PC/服务器进口产品关税价值的 20%以上， 但我们认为该定义是指在美制造而不是由美国制造，因此这些"美国制造" SoC/CPU/GPU 芯片除非在美国境内制造（如英特尔 CPU），否则不能豁免。 2）中国对美征收 34%关税的影响：我们认为国内 PC 供应链（如联想）可 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | ...

Employment Data - In March, the U.S. added 228,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding market expectations of 140,000[1] - The private sector saw job growth increase from 116,000 in February to 209,000 in March[4] - The unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.1% in February to 4.2% in March, with a minimal actual increase from 4.14% to 4.15%[4] Economic Outlook - Despite strong job growth, recession risks are rising due to potential tariff impacts and market signals indicating economic downturn[4] - Financial markets have issued recession warnings, with the S&P 500 index falling over 20%, marking a bear market[4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in June or July, with another potential cut in September or December[1][4] Sector Performance - Job growth in the service sector surged from 90,000 to 197,000, driven by improved weather and the end of strikes in retail and healthcare[4] - Durable goods manufacturing jobs decreased, with mining and durable goods manufacturing losing 2,000 and 3,000 jobs respectively[4] - Government employment rebounded from 1,000 to 19,000, although federal government jobs decreased by 4,000[4]

Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI fell from 53.5 in February to 50.8 in March, below the market expectation of 52.9, indicating a slowdown in service sector expansion[2] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.3 in February to 49 in March, also below the expected 49.5, signaling a return to contraction in the manufacturing sector[2] Demand and Employment Trends - The New Orders Index for services decreased from 52.2 to 50.4, nearing a nine-month low, reflecting weakened demand[2] - The Employment Index for services plummeted from 53.9 to 46.2, marking the first contraction in six months, indicating reduced hiring demand[2] Inflation and Price Pressures - The Price Index for services remained elevated, decreasing slightly from 62.6 to 60.9, while the Manufacturing Price Index surged from 62.4 to 69.4, the highest since June 2022, suggesting significant inflationary pressures[2] - The report indicates that inflation may rise initially due to supply cost increases but could decline later as economic slowdown and demand contraction take precedence[1] Market Outlook and Federal Reserve Actions - The report suggests a risk of stagflation in the short term, with potential for the S&P 500 to decline further, especially if it drops more than 20%[1] - The Federal Reserve may consider interest rate cuts in June or July, with another potential cut in September or December, in response to rising recession risks and market volatility[1]

Macro Economic Overview - The US economy shows signs of short-term stagflation risk as the March services PMI fell more than expected, with demand and employment weakening significantly while the price index continues to expand [2] - The trade war is expected to elevate the risk of stagflation followed by recession, as rising supply costs and inflation expectations outweigh the effects of demand contraction [2] - The S&P 500 index has issued a recession warning after dropping over 20%, leading to expectations that the Trump administration may slow down aggressive tariffs and government spending cuts while accelerating tax cuts and deregulation [2] Industry Insights Technology Sector - The new tariffs imposed by the US on imports are expected to have a limited direct impact on component suppliers, as most do not export directly to the US [5] - However, OEM/ODM companies will face direct impacts due to assembly operations primarily located in China, Vietnam, and India [5] - Apple is anticipated to be the most affected brand, with over 40% of its sales in the US, while Xiaomi's impact is expected to be minimal due to its limited revenue exposure in the US market [5] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing weak overall growth, with average revenue growth at 4.2% and net profit growth at 1.0% for 142 listed companies [6] - The innovative drug sector is performing well, with average revenue growth of 36.8%, driven by favorable healthcare payment environments and overseas licensing revenues [6] - The medical device sector shows stability with an average revenue growth of 8.9% and net profit growth of 2.6%, despite ongoing price pressures from procurement policies [7] Automotive Sector - The automotive industry is witnessing a divergence in profitability, with companies like Xpeng and Geely expected to outperform due to strong sales and reduced discounts [8] - The average discount in the industry has narrowed slightly, indicating a potential stabilization in pricing strategies among leading brands [8] - New model launches during the Shanghai Auto Show are anticipated to boost sales in the second quarter of 2025 [8] Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Geely Automobile, Xiaomi, and BYD Electronics, which are expected to benefit from current market conditions and potential recovery in their respective sectors [13]

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,203, down 0.02% for the day but up 36.11% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq in the US rose by 0.67% and 0.87% respectively, while European markets experienced declines, particularly in healthcare and real estate sectors [3] Company Analysis 用友 (Yonyou) - Reported total revenue of 9.2 billion RMB for 2024, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, attributed to macroeconomic headwinds and a strategic shift towards subscription models [4] - Net loss expanded to 2.1 billion RMB from 967 million RMB in 2023, primarily due to reduced revenue and increased costs related to employee compensation and goodwill impairment [4] - Target price adjusted to 14.49 RMB based on a 2025E EV/sales multiple of 5.3x, maintaining a "Hold" rating [4] 新希望服务 (New Hope Service) - Achieved a revenue increase of 17% to 1.48 billion RMB in 2024, exceeding expectations by 5% [4] - Net profit rose by 5% to 230 million RMB, driven by a 29% increase in basic property management revenue [4] - Target price set at 2.67 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating, with a projected dividend yield of 9.7% for FY25E [4] 滨江服务 (Binjiang Service) - Revenue grew by 28% to 3.6 billion RMB, surpassing estimates by 3% [5] - Net profit increased by 11% to 550 million RMB, with a core net profit growth of 21% to 600 million RMB after adjusting for tax impacts [6] - Target price adjusted to 32.86 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating, with a projected dividend yield of 7.0% for FY25E [6] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index rose by 0.39% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Real Estate Index saw a decline of 14.03% [2] - The technology sector within the Hang Seng Index performed well, with a year-to-date increase of 44.16% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for New Hope Services with a target price revised down by 4% to HK$2.67, reflecting lower earnings forecasts [1][8]. Core Insights - New Hope Services' FY24 revenue grew 17% YoY to RMB 1,480 million, exceeding CMBI estimates by 5%, driven by stable managed GFA growth and strong retail & catering services [1][8]. - Net profit increased by 5% YoY to RMB 230 million, aligning with the company's guidance, despite a decline in gross margin and a reduction in SG&A ratio [1][8]. - The company reported impressive third-party expansion, with new contract value reaching RMB 600 million, a 192% increase YoY, and expects FY25 third-party expansion to rise by 16% to RMB 700 million [1][8]. Financial Performance Summary - FY24 revenue: RMB 1,481 million, a 17.5% increase YoY [2]. - FY24 net profit: RMB 227 million, a 5% increase YoY [2]. - EPS for FY24: RMB 0.28, reflecting a 5.5% growth YoY [2]. - Average PM fee for new third-party projects rose by 51% to RMB 2.63, indicating a shift towards higher-end projects [1][8]. - The company expects a dividend yield of 9.6% in 2025E based on the current price [1][8]. Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for FY25E: RMB 1,644 million, with a YoY growth of 11% [2][10]. - Net profit projections for FY25E: RMB 250 million, with a YoY growth of 10.4% [2][10]. - The gross margin is expected to decline to 29.5% in FY25E from 30.4% in FY24A [10][11]. Shareholder Structure - Golden Rose Developments holds a 66.9% stake in New Hope Services, indicating a strong controlling interest [4]. Market Data - Current market capitalization: HK$ 1,619.9 million [3]. - The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 6.0x for FY25E [3][11]. Share Performance - The stock has shown a 1.5% decline over the past month and a 0.5% increase over the past three months [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Binjiang Service with a target price of HK$32.86, reflecting a potential upside of 29.9% from the current price of HK$25.30 [1][3]. Core Insights - Binjiang Service's FY24 revenue increased by 28% year-over-year to RMB 3.6 billion, driven by managed GFA expansion and a strong renovation business. Net profit rose 11% year-over-year to RMB 550 million, slightly below expectations due to a decline in gross margin and an additional withholding tax [1][7]. - The company plans to focus on expanding its operations outside Zhejiang, where it currently has a significant concentration of third-party GFA, to mitigate risks associated with regional concentration [1][7]. - The basic payout ratio was raised by 10 percentage points to 70%, indicating a dividend yield of 5.9% for FY24 and 7.0% for FY25E, showcasing attractive shareholder returns [1][7]. Financial Summary - FY24 revenue is projected at RMB 3,595 million, with a year-over-year growth of 28% [2][13]. - Net profit for FY24 is expected to be RMB 547 million, reflecting an 11% increase compared to FY23 [2][13]. - The company anticipates continued growth in managed GFA, with a target of 67.9 million square meters for FY24, representing a 24% increase [2][8]. Earnings Projections - Revenue is expected to grow to RMB 4,145 million in FY25E, with a year-over-year growth rate of 15.3% [2][9]. - Net profit is projected to reach RMB 643 million in FY25E, indicating a growth of 17.6% [2][9]. - The P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 12.0x in FY24 to 10.2x in FY25E, suggesting a more attractive valuation over time [2][9]. Shareholder Structure - The major shareholders include Great Dragon Ventures with a 45.9% stake and Haoyu Ventures Ltd with a 12.9% stake, indicating a concentrated ownership structure [4]. Market Performance - The stock has shown strong performance, with a 1-month increase of 16.3% and a 3-month increase of 24.6% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a HOLD rating for Yonyou, with a target price (TP) raised to RMB14.49 from RMB9.08, reflecting a 5.3x 2025E EV/sales valuation, in line with its two-year average [1][3][9]. Core Insights - Yonyou's total revenue for 2024 was RMB9.2 billion, a decrease of 7% year-over-year (YoY), primarily due to postponed customer demand and a strategic shift towards a subscription business model [1][2]. - The net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders increased to RMB2.1 billion in 2024 from RMB967 million in 2023, driven by revenue decline, employee compensation, and goodwill impairment provisions [1][2]. - Management aims for significant loss reduction in 2025 by enhancing labor productivity and improving product delivery quality and efficiency [1]. - Despite a positive long-term outlook due to increasing digitalization demand and international expansion plans, caution is advised in the near term due to already priced-in market sentiment following a 40% stock price increase year-to-date [1][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered by 18% to RMB9.982 billion and RMB11.081 billion, respectively, reflecting slower-than-expected growth in large and mid-sized enterprises [9][10]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 55.0% in 2025, up from 47.5% in 2024, while the operating margin is projected to remain negative at -5.3% [10][16]. - The number of employees decreased by 15% YoY to 21,283, which is anticipated to enhance labor productivity and operational efficiency [9][10]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue for 2025 is estimated at RMB9.982 billion, with a YoY growth of 9.1%, followed by RMB11.081 billion in 2026, representing an 11.0% growth [2][15]. - The net profit is projected to improve to a loss of RMB426 million in 2025, narrowing from a loss of RMB2.061 billion in 2024, and is expected to turn positive with a profit of RMB768 million by 2027 [2][15]. Market and Share Performance - Yonyou's market capitalization stands at RMB51.22 billion, with a current share price of RMB14.99, reflecting a slight downside of 3.4% from the target price [3][4]. - The stock has shown a strong performance with a 47.4% increase over the past three months [6].