Global Macro Strategy - The report highlights a global economic rebalancing driven by various factors including increased fiscal expansion in the US, Japan, and Europe, and China's focus on stabilizing real estate and promoting consumption [1][2] - The US economy is expected to see GDP growth decrease from 2.2% last year to 2% this year, with PCE inflation projected to drop from 2.5% to 2.3% [1][4] - The report anticipates that risk assets may reach new highs, with cyclical and value stocks outperforming tech and growth stocks [1][2] United States - The US housing market is expected to see an increase in sales volume while prices remain stable, with existing home sales projected to grow by 10% and new home sales by 5% in 2026 [7] - The fiscal deficit is projected to rise from 5.4% last year to 6.2% this year, with significant tax cuts expected to stimulate the economy [11] - The report predicts that the Federal Reserve will only cut rates once in June, with the 10-year Treasury yield expected to rise from 4.18% to 4.3% by year-end [12][14] United Kingdom - The UK economy is expected to experience a slight slowdown, with GDP growth forecasted to decrease from 1.4% last year to 1.2% this year [19][20] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise from 4.4% to 5.1% as the job market cools, while wage growth is expected to normalize [20] - The report anticipates that the Bank of England will cut rates twice in 2026, bringing the policy rate down to 3.25% [24] Eurozone - The Eurozone's GDP growth is expected to slow from 1.4% last year to 1.2% this year, with inflation projected to stabilize around the target level [1][2] - The report indicates that the European Central Bank's rate-cutting cycle has ended, with policy rates expected to remain unchanged [1][2] Japan - Japan's GDP growth is forecasted to decline significantly from 1.3% last year to 0.7% this year, with inflation also expected to decrease [1][2] - The report suggests that the Bank of Japan may raise rates twice, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to rise from 2.07% to 2.45% [1][2] China - China's GDP growth is projected to slow from 5% last year to 4.6% this year, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate market and promoting consumption [1][2] - The report anticipates that the People's Bank of China will implement two rate cuts totaling 20 basis points and one reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points [2]

2026 年 2 月 9 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观、行业及公司点评 全球市场观察 宏观点评 策略观点 - 经济再平衡 宏观：一季度中国经济增长放缓，但通缩改善，决策者释放经济再平衡政 策信号，政策将聚焦稳地产、促消费与反内卷再次发力，央行可能再次降 息降准，人民币兑美元短期走强，股市可能迎来春季反弹；美国经济增长 回升，房租通胀下降抵消商品通胀回升令通胀走平，美元流动性偏松，特 朗普削弱美联储独立性和美国军事同盟体系利空美元而利好大宗商品与国 防股。预计美联储今年仅 6 月降息一次。美国国债收益率曲线可能先陡再平 衡，美股可能先涨后跌，看好信息技术、通讯服务、工业、医疗与必选消 费。 互联网：回顾 1 月，业绩真空期叠加市场风险偏好提升及流动性提升助力下， 高 beta 且受益于事件性催化的股票显著跑赢行业。展望 2 月，中国龙头互 联网厂商均针对 C 端 AI 应用开启增量市场费用投放以助力用户增长，我们 重申此前年度策略中的观点——2026 年将是争夺 AI 时代用户心智的关键之 年，降低使用门槛、助力提升决策效率、创造真实价值是关注重点。配置 敬请参阅尾页之免 ...

2026年2月9日 CMB国际全球市场 | 股权研究 | 公司更新 亚马逊（AMZN US） 成长故事不变，AWS收入增长加速，超出预期。 亚马逊宣布（2月6日北京时间）2025年第四季度业绩：收入为2134亿美元，同比增长1 4%，按固定汇率计算同比增长12%（2024年第四季度：按固定汇率计算增长11%）， 比我们的预测/摩根大通一致预期高出1%。在此期间，总运营利润为250亿美元，同比 增长18%，比我们的预测/摩根大通一致预期高出2%-1%。剔除总额为24亿美元的三项 一次性特殊费用，运营利润将比预期高出10%。2025年第四季度AWS收入同比增长加 速至23.6%（2025年第三季度：20.2%；2024年第四季度：18.9%），比预期高出2个 百分点，受供应限制放宽（但仍存在）的推动。对于2025年，总收入同比增长12%至7 169亿美元，运营利润同比增长17%至800亿美元。管理层预计2026年第一季度预期收 入为1735-1785亿美元（预期：1755亿美元），意味着同比增长11%-15%。同时，管 理层预计运营利润为165-215亿美元（预期：222亿美元），2026年预期资本支出为20 0 ...

Industry Insights - The Chinese medical examination industry is experiencing rapid growth, driven by an aging population and increasing health awareness, with a projected CAGR of 9.2% from 2020 to 2024 and an accelerated growth of 18.3% from 2024 to 2030 [6] - The penetration rate of medical examinations in China is approximately 40%, significantly lower than the 70% in developed countries, indicating substantial room for growth [6] - The market is characterized by a "public-led, private-catching-up" dynamic, with public hospitals holding a 69% market share and private institutions increasing their share to 24% [6] - Leading private examination institutions, such as Meinian Health and Aikang Guobin, are focusing on high-end services, which has resulted in an increase in average selling price (ASP) and profit margins [6] Company Insights - Google (GOOG US) reported a 4Q25 revenue growth of 18% to $113.8 billion, driven by strong performance in search and cloud services, with operating profit increasing by 16% to $35.9 billion [7] - The management has guided for capital expenditures of $175-185 billion for FY26E, significantly above consensus estimates, indicating a strong commitment to AI investments [7] - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308 CH) remains a solid investment, with a focus on pluggable optical modules expected to dominate the market during 2026-27, despite recent stock volatility [8] - Jizhi Jia (2590 HK) announced a 31.7% year-on-year increase in new orders for 2025, totaling 4.1 billion RMB, attributed to stable growth in mature markets and breakthroughs in specific sectors [9]

5 Feb 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Alphabet (GOOG US) Alphabet (GOOG US) - 4Q25 business performance 4Q25 results: AI continues to drive strong search and cloud business performance Alphabet reported 4Q25 results: total revenue grew by 18% YoY to US$113.8bn, 2% ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimate thanks to the strong growth of Google Search and Cloud revenue; operating income was up by 16% YoY to US$35.9bn, lower than consensus estimate of US$36.9bn, but mainly ...

5 Feb 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Innolight (300308 CH) Innolight (300308 CH) - Pluggables first, new architecture later Innolight's share price has experienced heightened volatility yesterday (down 5% on 4 Feb), driven by a combination of market concerns around NPO/CPO adoption, hyperscaler network roadmap evolution, upstream suppliers' capacity expansion, etc., prompting mgmt. to hold an investor Q&A session to address these issues. We believe the core investme ...

中国医药 中国医药 - 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 高端化和 AI 技术驱动中国体检行业长期增长 在中国人口老龄化不断加剧和居民健康意识不断提升的背景下，中国体检行业的市 场规模维持了快速增长趋势。根据中研普华的数据，中国体检行业规模在 2020 至 2024 年的年复合增长率（CAGR）为 9.2%，预计在 2024 至 2030 年将以 18.3%的 CAGR加速增长。中国体检渗透率约为 40%，远低于发达国家的 70%，意味着持续 增长的空间广阔。当前体检市场呈现"公立主导、民营追赶"的鲜明格局。根据前 瞻产业研究院的数据，公立医院占据 69%的市场份额，而民营机构的市占率提升至 24%。头部民营体检机构包括美年健康（002044 CH，未评级）、爱康国宾（未上 市）以及瑞慈医疗（1526 HK，未评级）。中国体检行业呈现出显著的高端化趋 势，头部民营体检机构均大力发展高端业务，助力提升ASP和利润率。此外，AI 技 术正成为中国体检行业突破传统瓶颈、实现高质量发展的核心引擎，而具备数据与 场景优势的龙头有望持续拉开与中小连锁的竞争身位。 2026 年 2 月 5 日 中国 医药 行业 ...

2026 年 2 月 5 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 公司点评 辉瑞（PFE US，买入，目标价：35.46 美元） - 减重管线数据推动估值重估 潜力 中国股指收涨，港股能源、地产与原材料领涨，信息科技、可选消费与医疗 跑输。南下资金净买入133.73亿港元，腾讯、阿里巴巴与小米净买入居前， 中芯国际、华虹半导体与钧达股份净卖出最多。A 股煤炭、建材与地产领涨， 传媒、通信与计算机跑输。马斯克团队考察光伏产业链，上市公司密集回应。 中国光伏行业协会表示太空光伏技术仍处于探索和验证的初期阶段。 美股指数下跌，信息技术、通讯服务与可选消费领跌，能源、材料与地产领 涨。美股市场软件股抛售潮继续蔓延至半导体、AI 概念股等领域，宏观数据 喜忧参半未能给市场提供支撑。资金从科技股、成长股与高估值板块向能源、 材料股、价值股与低估值板块切换。AMD 疲弱指引后暴跌 17%，拖累半导 体板块下挫，Palantir、Snowflake、Datadog 等软件与 AI 相关个股继续承压。 谷歌All in AI，第4季度云收入猛增48%，今年支出指引接近翻倍大超预期 ...

2026年2月5日 CMB国际 | 全球市场 | 股权研究 | 公司更新 辉瑞公司（PFE美国） 肥胖领域风险降低推动重估潜力 辉瑞公布了强劲的2025年第四季度业绩，收入为176亿美元（基本符合我们180亿美元 的预估），调整后净收入为38亿美元（超出我们33亿美元的预估）。尽管2025财年收入 达到626亿美元（同比下降2%），但排除COVID-19产品（Comirnaty和Paxlovid）的经 营收入同比增长6%，凸显了公司业务的强劲基础。2025财年调整后摊薄每股收益同比 增长4%至3.22美元，反映了成本削减举措的成功实施。管理层重申了2026年收入预期 为595亿美元至625亿美元，调整后每股收益为2.80美元至3.00美元。我们预计2026财年 预期将充满催化剂，包括长效GLP-1和长效胰淀素项目的关键数据公布，肥胖产品组合 和PF'4404（PD-1/VEGF）的积极临床进展，以及2L+非小细胞肺癌中SV的III期数据和 Elrexfio在复发/难治性多发性骨髓瘤中的数据。我们认为这些里程碑有望推动显著的价 值重估。 VESPER-3读数验证了每月剂量区分。 辉瑞公布了其长效GLP-1（PF ...

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,847, with a slight increase of 0.05% for the day and a year-to-date increase of 4.75% [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 1.84% for the day and is down 2.71% year-to-date [1] - The US stock market saw the Dow Jones increase by 0.53%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.51% and 1.51%, respectively [1] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, the financial sector increased by 0.66% and is up 8.51% year-to-date, while the industrial sector decreased by 0.48% [2] - The real estate sector in Hong Kong saw a significant increase of 1.99% for the day and is up 17.13% year-to-date [2] Capital Flows - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of 13.373 billion HKD, with Tencent, Alibaba, and Xiaomi being the top net buyers [3] - In contrast, SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and Jun Da Co. were the most sold stocks [3] US Market Trends - The US stock market experienced a sell-off in technology stocks, particularly in software and semiconductor sectors, with AMD's weak guidance leading to a 17% drop [3] - The S&P 500 software sector has seen an average decline of 25% since reaching a historical high last October [3] Company Analysis: Pfizer (PFE US) - Pfizer reported strong Q4 2025 earnings with revenue of 17.6 billion USD, slightly below the expected 18.1 billion USD, but adjusted net income exceeded expectations at 3.8 billion USD [4] - The company anticipates 2026 revenue between 59.5 billion to 62.5 billion USD, with adjusted EPS guidance of 2.80 to 3.00 USD [4] - Key upcoming milestones include data readouts for long-acting GLP-1 and Amylin projects, which are expected to drive significant valuation re-evaluation [4] Clinical Developments - Pfizer's VESPER-3 study showed a 12.3% weight loss effect at the 28-week mark for its long-acting GLP-1 candidate, with a potential 15.8% weight loss projected for a higher dose [5] - The company plans to initiate a Phase 3 study for the higher dose later this year, with detailed data expected at the ADA conference in June [5] Oncology Pipeline - Pfizer is advancing its PD-1/VEGF and ADC combination therapies, with ongoing Phase 3 trials for PF'4404 in colorectal cancer and additional trials planned for 2026 [6] - The market narrative is shifting towards pipeline execution strength, with obesity products and PF'4404 clinical progress expected to drive stock price increases [6]