2026 年 3 月 9 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观/行业/公司点评 全球市场观察 宏观点评 美国经济 - 就业数据发出疲软信号，但噪音较多 上周五，A 股三大指数集体小幅上扬，成交量维持稳定，市场关注国家发改 委对"十五五"规划纲要草案的解读，特别是集成电路、低空经济等六大新 兴支柱产业至 2030 年产值翻番的战略目标。港股显著反弹：恒指收涨 1.72%，恒生科技收涨 3.15%。 宏观层面，中国央行连续第 16 个月增持黄 金，显示其储备资产结构持续优化。离岸人民币汇率受强势美元压制出现回 调，单周累计跌幅约 0.65%。 美股受"滞胀恐慌"冲击，三大指数全线下挫。疲弱的非农数据与飙升的油 价形成共振，标普 500 指数创下去年 10 月以来最差单周表现。芯片板块表 现惨淡，受部分科技巨头缩减数据中心扩建计划传闻影响，半导体指数单周 下跌逾 7%。私人信贷领域的流动性压力开始显现，拖累大型金融机构股价 表现。尽管弱于市场预期的 2 月非农就业数据一度推动收益率下行，但通胀 反弹担忧最终成为主导因素，上周五 10 年期美债收益率仍累计上涨约 20 个 基点。 欧洲 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating on ZTE with a revised target price of HK$38.6, down from HK$42.0, reflecting a potential upside of 51.8% from the current price of HK$25.42 [1][3]. Core Insights - ZTE reported FY25 results showing a revenue increase of 10.4% YoY to RMB134 billion, which was 7.7% below estimates, while net profit fell 33.3% YoY to RMB5.6 billion, significantly missing estimates by 30% [1][2]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) declined sharply to 30.3%, down 7.7 percentage points from 37.9% in FY24, primarily due to a higher mix of Enterprise & Government (E&G) sales [1][2]. - Revenue from the E&G segment more than doubled to RMB37 billion in FY25, with AI compute revenue growing 150% YoY, although margins in this segment also faced pressure [9][1]. - Carrier revenue declined by 10.6% YoY in FY25, attributed to reduced capital expenditures by domestic telcos following the 5G investment cycle, while overseas carrier revenue showed resilience with double-digit growth [9][1]. - The consumer segment remained stable, with revenue growth of 4.4% YoY to RMB34 billion, supported by handset sales [9][1]. Financial Summary - FY25 revenue is projected at RMB133.9 billion for FY26, with expected growth rates of 11.3% in FY26 and 13.0% in FY27 [2][10]. - The net profit for FY26 is estimated to be RMB6.5 billion, reflecting a recovery of 15.6% YoY after a significant drop in FY25 [2][10]. - The gross margin is expected to decline further to approximately 29% in FY26 as the revenue mix evolves [9][1]. - The report forecasts E&G revenue growth of around 30% in FY26, indicating strong demand in the AI server market [9][1].

美国经济 Economic Perspectives - 就业数据发出疲软信号，但噪音较多 美国 2 月新增非农就业大幅收缩并低于市场预期，可能有极寒天气、医疗行业 罢工和 1 月强劲数据的透支等因素影响，相关行业如建筑、酒店&休闲和医疗 服务等就业大幅收缩。工资仍保持较高增速，将支持消费韧性，也侧面显示就 业市场虽疲软并未大幅走弱。尽管劳动参与率下降，但失业率小幅上升，发出 就业市场疲软信号。由于噪音较多，我们认为这份数据不足以令联储在近期重 新开始降息，因油价上涨大幅推升通胀预期，联储面临稳就业和降通胀双重目 标的两难困境。我们预计美联储今年仅 6 月降息一次 25 个基点，作为新任主 席的政治表态。下半年，由于政策利率已接近中性利率，随着通胀可能回升， 美联储降息窗口期将再次关闭，美元流动性收紧预期可能升温。 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 资料来源：Wind, 招银国际环球市场 资料来源：Wind, 招银国际环球市场 资料来源：Wind, 招银国际环球市场 (15) (10) (5) 0 5 10 15 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 ...

9 Mar 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) - Coal price likely Buying opportunity on Yancoal to gain alongside the surging gas price; Buying opportunity on Yancoal Near-term catalyst. The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and disruption of natural gas production in the Middle East has pushed the gas price (TTF 1-mth forward) up 70% over the past week. The shortage and surging price of gas will possibly drive a switchi ...

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update 固定收益部市场日报 Trading desk comments 交易台市场观点 Yesterday, recent financial new issues NORBK/OCBCSP/DAESEC/SUMIBK tightened 4-10bps. TW lifers and HK credits LINREI/HKE traded 4-6bps tighter. Chinese TMT names BABA/TENCNT/LENOVO closed 2-3bps tighter, with the exception that MEITUAs remained unchanged. ZHOSHK/FRESHK traded 5-10bps wider under selling pressure. As for greater China higher- yielding space, the NWDEVL/VDNWDL complex were overall 0.1-0.9pt higher. ...

6 Mar 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Coverage Termination Yuexiu Transport (1052 HK) Yuexiu Transport (1052 HK) - Termination of Coverage In view of a reallocation of resources, we terminate coverage of Yuexiu Transport (1052 HK). All previous recommendations are no longer valid, as of the date of this termination. China Toll Road Wayne FUNG, CFA (852) 3900 0826 waynefung@cmbi.com.hk PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLO ...

6 Mar 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Coverage Termination Unity Group (1539 HK) Unity Group (1539 HK) - Termination of Coverage In view of a reallocation of resources, we terminate coverage of Unity Group (1539 HK). All previous recommendations are no longer valid, as of the date of this termination. China Capital Goods Wayne FUNG, CFA (852) 3900 0826 waynefung@cmbi.com.hk PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG: RES ...

宏观点评 中国政策 – 两会政策信号 2026 年政府工作报告务实地下调了经济增长目标，同时财政支持力度略有 减弱，反映出决策者在"新旧动能转换"过程中，愿意容忍短期内增速放缓 以换取中长期的更高质量发展。政策重点转向稳投资，通过更多财政资源投 入，以吸引私人资本流入人工智能基础设施、数字产业和绿色产业等新兴领 域。对消费和住房的增量支持基本符合预期，社会福利、以旧换新补贴和额 外住房市场刺激措施没有超预期。值得注意的是，政府首次将再通胀作为明 确的政策目标，致力通过供需再平衡实现价格水平的温和合理复苏。总体而 言，我们认为政策重点将以稳投资为主导，同时定向支持消费复苏和推动价 格水平回升。财政预算预示 2026 年名义 GDP 增长率约为 5%，根据我们预 测，2026年实际GDP增长率将约为 4.6%，GDP平减指数约为 0.4%。（链 接） 2026 年 3 月 6 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观/行业/公司点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- ...

6 Mar 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update JD.com (JD US) JD.com (JD US) - Driving Driving healthy core business earnings growth amid high base in 2026 JD.com (JD) reported (5 Mar) 4Q25 results: revenue was RMB352.3bn, up 1.5% YoY (3Q25: 14.9%), 1% ahead of both our forecast and Bloomberg consensus. Non-GAAP NP was RMB1.1bn, down 90% YoY due to investment in food delivery (FD) and high base, but ahead of our forecast and consensus at RMB0.5bn, driven by the beat on JDR's ...

6 Mar 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Bilibili (BILI US) Bilibili (BILI US) - 4Q25 results: improvement 4Q25 results: AI to drive healthy community development and monetization improvement BiliBili announced 4Q25 financial results: total revenue was up by 8% YoY to RMB8.32bn, 2% ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimate mainly due to the stronger-than-expected performance of advertising business (+27% YoY); adjusted net income grew by 94% YoY to RMB878mn, 10% ahead of co ...