2026 年 3 月 11 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观及公司点评 全球市场观察 宏观点评 中国经济 - 出口韧性 2026年前 2月，以美元计中国出口显著增长 21.8%，主要得益于今年春节时 间较晚、基数较低以及全球半导体行业上行周期等提振。对美出口跌幅自 2025年第二季度以来首次显著收窄。进口大幅反弹，主要受人工智能相关需 求，包括铜基材料和集成电路等进口增长的推动。 在人工智能投资上行周期以及中国制造业成本优势的支撑下，我们预计中国 商品出口在 2026 年将保持韧性。然而外部环境疲软，例如能源价格上涨可 能削弱实际购买力并增加运输成本，可能会抑制出口增长势头。展望未来， 我们预计中国商品出口增速可能从 2025年的 5.2%小幅放缓至 2026年的 4%， 而进口增速可能从-0.5%反弹至 2%。美元兑人民币汇率可能升值至 6 月的 6.8，随后在下半年贬值至 6.9。（链接） 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | ...

11 Mar 2026 Maintain HOLD. We are of the view that NIO's R&D and SG&A expenses in 4Q25 are hard to sustain. As the Onvo L90 has likely been a one-hit wonder, we are concerned if any new models would follow the pattern given China's highly competitive market. We think NIO's profitability still trails its peers. Earnings Summary - NIO US | (YE 31 Dec) | FY23A | FY24A | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Revenue (RMB mn) | 55,618 | 65,732 | 87,488 | 128,659 | 147,282 | | YoY growth ...

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update 固定收益部市场日报 Yesterday, benchmark POE corporate and financial names across CN/HK/JP/KR traded 5-7bps wider. Panic selling appeared among higher betas like FRESHK/ZHOSHK and drove the bonds to 20-30bps wider. We also saw selling flows on 4-6yr FRNs issued recently like HSBC/ SUMIBK/SUMITR. Selling pressure was more subdued in various quasi- sovereign bonds in KR and LINREI/HKE in HK. These widened only 1-5bps. NWDEVL/VDNWDL complex were 0.1-1.3pts lower, w ...

全球市场观察 宏观点评 中国经济 - 2 月 CPI 反弹 2026 年 3 月 10 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观/行业/公司点评 中国正在逐步摆脱通缩，但价格-工资传导机制的恢复仍然脆弱，因为通胀 主要由供给驱动，而最终消费需求依然疲软。由于价格水平-企业盈利-家庭 收入的传导机制仍然不平衡，我们认为，要持久地打破通缩螺旋，需要持续 的财政扩张以刺激需求侧，但今年两会的相关政策似乎弱于预期。展望未来， 我们预计 CPI、PPI 和 GDP 平减指数将从 2025 年的 0.1%、-2.6%和-1%回 升至 2026 年的 1.1%、0.5%和 0.8%。我们预计中国人民银行将在短期内将 主要依赖其结构性货币政策工具，可能会在 2026 年第二季度末将 LPR 和 RRR 分别下调 10 个和 50 个基点，因房地产市场持续疲软。（链接） 中国 2 月份 CPI 反弹至 1.3%，创近 3 年新高，主要得益于春节错月的基数 效应和节假日期间旅游价格的飙升。对比往年 1-2 月份，食品和商品价格涨 幅低于季节性表现，而除旅游外其他服务价格则保持温和。PPI 再次超市场 ...

2026 年 3 月 9 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观/行业/公司点评 全球市场观察 宏观点评 美国经济 - 就业数据发出疲软信号，但噪音较多 上周五，A 股三大指数集体小幅上扬，成交量维持稳定，市场关注国家发改 委对"十五五"规划纲要草案的解读，特别是集成电路、低空经济等六大新 兴支柱产业至 2030 年产值翻番的战略目标。港股显著反弹：恒指收涨 1.72%，恒生科技收涨 3.15%。 宏观层面，中国央行连续第 16 个月增持黄 金，显示其储备资产结构持续优化。离岸人民币汇率受强势美元压制出现回 调，单周累计跌幅约 0.65%。 美股受"滞胀恐慌"冲击，三大指数全线下挫。疲弱的非农数据与飙升的油 价形成共振，标普 500 指数创下去年 10 月以来最差单周表现。芯片板块表 现惨淡，受部分科技巨头缩减数据中心扩建计划传闻影响，半导体指数单周 下跌逾 7%。私人信贷领域的流动性压力开始显现，拖累大型金融机构股价 表现。尽管弱于市场预期的 2 月非农就业数据一度推动收益率下行，但通胀 反弹担忧最终成为主导因素，上周五 10 年期美债收益率仍累计上涨约 20 个 基点。 欧洲 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating on ZTE with a revised target price of HK$38.6, down from HK$42.0, reflecting a potential upside of 51.8% from the current price of HK$25.42 [1][3]. Core Insights - ZTE reported FY25 results showing a revenue increase of 10.4% YoY to RMB134 billion, which was 7.7% below estimates, while net profit fell 33.3% YoY to RMB5.6 billion, significantly missing estimates by 30% [1][2]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) declined sharply to 30.3%, down 7.7 percentage points from 37.9% in FY24, primarily due to a higher mix of Enterprise & Government (E&G) sales [1][2]. - Revenue from the E&G segment more than doubled to RMB37 billion in FY25, with AI compute revenue growing 150% YoY, although margins in this segment also faced pressure [9][1]. - Carrier revenue declined by 10.6% YoY in FY25, attributed to reduced capital expenditures by domestic telcos following the 5G investment cycle, while overseas carrier revenue showed resilience with double-digit growth [9][1]. - The consumer segment remained stable, with revenue growth of 4.4% YoY to RMB34 billion, supported by handset sales [9][1]. Financial Summary - FY25 revenue is projected at RMB133.9 billion for FY26, with expected growth rates of 11.3% in FY26 and 13.0% in FY27 [2][10]. - The net profit for FY26 is estimated to be RMB6.5 billion, reflecting a recovery of 15.6% YoY after a significant drop in FY25 [2][10]. - The gross margin is expected to decline further to approximately 29% in FY26 as the revenue mix evolves [9][1]. - The report forecasts E&G revenue growth of around 30% in FY26, indicating strong demand in the AI server market [9][1].

美国经济 Economic Perspectives - 就业数据发出疲软信号，但噪音较多 美国 2 月新增非农就业大幅收缩并低于市场预期，可能有极寒天气、医疗行业 罢工和 1 月强劲数据的透支等因素影响，相关行业如建筑、酒店&休闲和医疗 服务等就业大幅收缩。工资仍保持较高增速，将支持消费韧性，也侧面显示就 业市场虽疲软并未大幅走弱。尽管劳动参与率下降，但失业率小幅上升，发出 就业市场疲软信号。由于噪音较多，我们认为这份数据不足以令联储在近期重 新开始降息，因油价上涨大幅推升通胀预期，联储面临稳就业和降通胀双重目 标的两难困境。我们预计美联储今年仅 6 月降息一次 25 个基点，作为新任主 席的政治表态。下半年，由于政策利率已接近中性利率，随着通胀可能回升， 美联储降息窗口期将再次关闭，美元流动性收紧预期可能升温。 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 资料来源：Wind, 招银国际环球市场 资料来源：Wind, 招银国际环球市场 资料来源：Wind, 招银国际环球市场 (15) (10) (5) 0 5 10 15 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 ...

9 Mar 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) - Coal price likely Buying opportunity on Yancoal to gain alongside the surging gas price; Buying opportunity on Yancoal Near-term catalyst. The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and disruption of natural gas production in the Middle East has pushed the gas price (TTF 1-mth forward) up 70% over the past week. The shortage and surging price of gas will possibly drive a switchi ...

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update 固定收益部市场日报 Trading desk comments 交易台市场观点 Yesterday, recent financial new issues NORBK/OCBCSP/DAESEC/SUMIBK tightened 4-10bps. TW lifers and HK credits LINREI/HKE traded 4-6bps tighter. Chinese TMT names BABA/TENCNT/LENOVO closed 2-3bps tighter, with the exception that MEITUAs remained unchanged. ZHOSHK/FRESHK traded 5-10bps wider under selling pressure. As for greater China higher- yielding space, the NWDEVL/VDNWDL complex were overall 0.1-0.9pt higher. ...

6 Mar 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Coverage Termination Yuexiu Transport (1052 HK) Yuexiu Transport (1052 HK) - Termination of Coverage In view of a reallocation of resources, we terminate coverage of Yuexiu Transport (1052 HK). All previous recommendations are no longer valid, as of the date of this termination. China Toll Road Wayne FUNG, CFA (852) 3900 0826 waynefung@cmbi.com.hk PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLO ...