Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,835, up 0.22% for the day and up 4.70% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,068, up 1.29% for the day and up 2.49% year-to-date [1] - The US markets saw declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.34% and the S&P 500 down 0.84% [1] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index rose by 0.99% with a year-to-date increase of 7.80% [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index increased by 1.65%, showing a year-to-date growth of 14.84% [2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 1.07%, with a year-to-date decline of 0.88% [1][2] Chinese Stock Market Insights - The Chinese stock market rebounded, with materials, industrials, and defense sectors leading gains, while information technology and telecommunications sectors declined [3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 952 million, with Tencent, China Mobile, and Xiaomi being the top net buyers [3] - Concerns over potential VAT increases on financial and internet services led to declines in internet platform stocks, although these rumors were debunked by experts [3] Aluminum Industry Analysis - The global supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to remain tight until 2026, supporting higher aluminum prices, projected to increase by 15% year-on-year [4] - China's electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization is nearing saturation, with a forecasted capacity limit of 45 million tons by December 2025 [4] - The report initiates coverage on Innovation Industries (2788 HK) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 32, citing cost advantages from green energy and expansion in Saudi Arabia [7] Insurance Industry Insights - The insurance sector in China is projected to see premium income growth, with life insurance premiums expected to reach CNY 3.56 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 11.4% [5] - December saw a recovery in premium income, with life insurance premiums growing by 10.1% year-on-year [5] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the insurance sector, recommending stocks like China Ping An (2318 HK) and AIA Group (1299 HK) with target prices of HKD 90 and HKD 89, respectively [7]

4 Feb 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update China Hongqiao (1378 HK) China Hongqiao (1378 HK) - Raising earnings and TP on higher aluminium price We maintain our positive stance on Hongqiao as our latest sector analysis suggest that the global aluminium deficit will continue in 2026-27 (see our sector note published today). We revise up our aluminium ASP forecast by 12%/7% in 2026E/27E, while revising down our bauxite price forecast by 16%/18% due to sufficient supply. Acc ...

4 Feb 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Initiation Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK) Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK) Capacity growth in Saudi Arabia + superb cost advantage on low green energy cost in China We believe Chuangxin offers unique growth story in the aluminium sector. On the cost side, the on-going commencement of wind & solar captive power source will further push the cost down in 2026E-27E, from the already low cost of electricity at present. On the growth side, Chuangxin's ...

Trading desk comments 交易台市场观点 Yesterday, we saw balanced two-way flows in FRN space across AU/JP financial names and MAYMK, as well as 2-3yr Korean quasi-sovereign issues and HYNMTR, which closed 1-2bps tighter. The market opened with all-in sellers took profits on front-end to belly Chinese AMC papers (ORIEAS/CCAMCL), POE/TMTs (KUAISH/TENCNT), and belly financial papers (DAESEC/OCBCSP/BBLTB), driving spreads 1-3bps wider. However, selling flows gradually vanished and credit spreads closed largely unchanged ...

2026 年 2 月 3 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业点评/公司首发及点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk 2026 年 2 月 3 日 行业点评 中国重卡行业 - 1 月份重卡销量在低基数下同比增长 39% 根据第一商用车的初步数据，1 月份重卡批发销量（国内+出口）同比增长 39%至 10 万辆，主要由于：(1) 去年春节较早开始（1 月 29 日开始）导致基 数较低；(2) 不少重卡制造商在 2025 年底前已完成销售目标，部分将 2025 年 12 月的销量推迟至今年 1 月确认。我们维持对 2026 年重卡需求的乐观预 期，预计需求将保持在 110 万辆以上的高位，主要得益于换代驱动的上升周 期（2017-21 年销量创历史新高）以及政府补贴政策的延续。我们维持对潍 柴动力（2338 HK/000338 CH，买入）的正面观点，主要由于重卡需求仍然 强劲，而 AIDC 发动机将带来新的增长动力。同时，我们给予"持有"评级 的中国重汽（3808 HK）将存在上升空间。（链接） | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | ...

3 Feb 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Minth Group (425 HK) Solid growth outlook from battery housing, robotics and AIDC Maintain BUY. We expect solid 2H25E earnings for Minth, with FY25E net profit to rise 17% YoY. We also expect its net profit to rise even faster in FY26-27E, aided by continued growth in battery housing and new business contribution including parts for humanoid robots and AI server liquid cooling system. (Previous TP HK$38.00) China Auto Ji SHI, CFA ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group with a target price of HK$13.93, up from the previous target of HK$11.05, indicating a potential upside of 45.1% from the current price of HK$9.60 [6][9]. Core Insights - A significant licensing agreement valued at over US$18.5 billion has been established with AstraZeneca, focusing on eight weight management and type II diabetes projects, which is expected to drive long-term growth for CSPC [3]. - CSPC has demonstrated a strong track record in business development, signing six licensing agreements since the end of 2024, which validates its drug discovery capabilities and suggests sustainable revenue streams in the medium to long term [4]. - The company reported total revenue of RMB 19.9 billion for the first nine months of 2025, with a core revenue decline of 19% year-on-year, although a recovery was noted in Q3 2025 with a 4.2% quarter-on-quarter increase in core revenue [5]. Financial Summary - For FY25E, CSPC's revenue is projected to be RMB 26.949 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.1%, with a net profit of RMB 4.945 billion, which is expected to grow by 14.0% in FY26E [8][19]. - The company’s R&D expenses increased by 7.9% year-on-year to RMB 4.2 billion for the first nine months of 2025, representing a R&D expense ratio of 21.0% [5]. - The sales expense ratio decreased significantly from 29.2% in the first nine months of 2024 to 24.1% in the same period of 2025, indicating improved cost management [5]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects an increase in earnings forecasts due to the AstraZeneca deal, adjusting the DCF-based target price to HK$13.93, with a WACC of 9.34% and a terminal growth rate of 3.0% [6][16]. - The estimated EPS for FY25E is RMB 0.43, with a PE ratio of 20.1, which is expected to decrease to 14.9 by FY26E [8][19].

Last Friday, financial FRNs traded 1bp wider. In HK, the NWDEVL/VDNWDL complex surged another 0.5-3.0pts, following the market rumors that Blackstone might become NWD's single largest shareholder, but no agreement has been reached yet. FAEACO 12.814 Perp rose 1.5pts. SHUION 26-29 edged 0.2-0.6pt higher. SUNHKC 26 was 0.1pt lower, while SUNHKC 29 was 0.3pt higher. TW lifers were 2-4bps wider amid street selling on NSINTW/SHIKON. Long-end MEITUA/KUAISH also widened 2- 3bps. EHICAR 26 was down by 0.6pt. WESCHI ...

Group 1: Macro Commentary - The manufacturing PMI in China has shown a decline, indicating weaker demand, with new orders and export orders decreasing [5] - Domestic and external demand weakness is expected to slow growth momentum, prompting potential policy easing before and after the "Two Sessions" [5] - GDP growth is projected to decrease from 5% in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026, with expectations of RRR and LPR cuts [5] Group 2: Industry Commentary - Apple reported FY1Q26 earnings that exceeded expectations, with a 16% year-on-year revenue growth driven by strong iPhone sales and a 38% increase in the Chinese market [5] - The gross margin for Apple improved to 48.2%, and the guidance for FY2Q26 indicates a revenue growth of 13-16% despite supply constraints [5] - The technology sector is expected to benefit from Apple's product cycle and collaborations with Google AI, with companies like Luxshare Precision and BYD Electronics positioned for growth [5] Group 3: Company Commentary - Thermo Fisher reported a strong 4Q25 performance with a 7.2% year-on-year revenue growth, driven by demand from pharmaceutical clients [6] - The company expects a revenue growth of 3.9% to 5.9% for 2026, with adjusted EPS growth of 5.9% to 8.4% [6] - Recent acquisitions are expected to enhance Thermo Fisher's capabilities and drive future growth, with an anticipated adjusted EPS growth of 7-9% [7][8] Group 4: Company Forecasts - Zhengli's battery sales forecast for 2025 has been raised from 18.4 GWh to 19.6 GWh due to strong demand from new electric vehicle models [9] - The average selling price is expected to increase, leading to a projected net profit growth of 550% to 591 million yuan in 2025 [9] - For 2026, Zhengli's sales forecast remains at 30 GWh, with an 8% revenue increase expected, raising the net profit forecast to 1.36 billion yuan [9]

2 Feb 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Thermo Fisher (TMO US) Thermo Fisher (TMO US) - 4Q25 results: Capitalizing on the growing pharmaceutical demand Thermo Fisher (TMO) delivered a strong 4Q25 performance, with revenue up by 7.2% YoY (the fastest quarterly growth within 2025) and adj. EPS up by 7.7%, beating Bloomberg consensus by 2.2%/ 1.9%, respectively. The upbeat growth in the quarter was firmly supported by the solid performance of bioproduction, research and s ...