2026 年 1 月 16 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观及公司点评 全球市场观察 宏观点评 2025 年末中国社会融资存量增速延续放缓，M1 增速明显回落，凸显经济活 动与私营部门信心走弱。信贷结构显示经济供需失衡，企业部门仍是信贷扩 张的主引擎，而家庭部门延续降杠杆。 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,924 | -0.28 | 5.05 | | 恒生国企 | 9,267 | -0.52 | 3.96 | | 恒生科技 | 5,828 | -1.35 | 5.66 | | 上证综指 | 4,113 | -0.33 | 3.62 | | 深证综指 | 2,690 | -0.13 | 6.28 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,368 | 0.56 | 5.14 | | 美国道琼斯 | 49,442 | 0.60 | 2.87 | | 美国标普 500 | 6, ...

每日投资策略 宏观、行业及公司点评 全球市场观察 宏观点评 ◼ 中国经济 - 再平衡仍充满挑战 2025 年中国商品出口面临全球挑战而展现韧性，5.5%的增长率超出预期。 这得益于中国与非美地区经贸关系加强和全球供应链通过中间商重构间接连 接中美市场。中国制造业通过创新升级保持扩张，集成电路、机动车和医疗 设备等高科技产品出口显著增长，而服装和玩具等传统行业出口则出现萎缩。 受国内需求疲软和产能过剩压力制约，商品进口增长停滞，贸易顺差扩大至 创纪录的 1.19 万亿美元（约占 GDP 的 6.1%）。 2026 年 1 月 15 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 中国 GDP 增速自 2025 年第三季度以来明显放缓，连续至少两个季度低于 5%，预计 2026 年第一季度将进一步回落，决策者或将推出新一轮刺激政策。 随着大宗商品价格回升，通缩压力可能温和缓解。预计 2026 年货物出口增 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | ...

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update 固定收益部市场日报 Trading desk comments 交易台市场观点 Yesterday, the new POHANG 31-36s/SKBTAM 29 tightened 3-5bps from ROs amid buying from Chinese onshore accounts. The new CSILTD Float 31 widened 1bp from RO at SOFR+60. There were AM selling flows on the existing CSILTD curve. Chinese IG credits traded firmly overall and tightened 1-3bps across the board. We saw solid buying interests in beta names, particularly in FRESHK/ZHOSHK. EHICAR 26-27 were 0.5pt lower. The ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market," indicating expected performance above market benchmarks over the next 12 months [52]. Core Insights - The global large model market is projected to reach USD 206.5 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 80.7% from 2024 to 2029. The application market for large models is expected to grow to USD 151.5 billion during the same period, with a CAGR of 84.4% [10][12]. - The report focuses on C-end AI applications, highlighting that companies with model capabilities, product capabilities, and financial resources are likely to lead in their respective segments [13][16]. - The AI general assistant sector is expected to see leading companies like ByteDance, Tencent, Alibaba, and DeepSeek form a top tier in China, while the competition remains dynamic [17][23]. - The AI companionship applications are anticipated to grow significantly, with a projected global market revenue of approximately USD 700 billion by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 200% from 2023 to 2030 [27][30]. - The AI visual generation market is expected to reach USD 16.6 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 66% from 2025 to 2027, with leading companies including Google Veo and Kuaishou Keling [36][40]. Summary by Sections Large Model Applications - The global large model market is expected to grow from USD 10.7 billion in 2024 to USD 206.5 billion by 2029, driven by continuous iterations and increased penetration of AI applications [10][12]. - The application market for large models is projected to grow from USD 7.1 billion in 2024 to USD 151.5 billion by 2029, indicating a strong growth trajectory [10][12]. AI General Assistants - Leading companies in the AI general assistant sector include OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI, with a significant market share based on token usage [19][22]. - In China, the competition is still in its early stages, with ByteDance's Doubao leading in user numbers but facing challenges in model capabilities [17][23]. AI Companionship Applications - The AI companionship market is in its early development stage, with a projected user penetration rate exceeding 40% by 2030, leading to substantial revenue growth [27][30]. - Leading applications in this sector include Character AI, Minimax Talkie, and ByteDance's Cat Box, with significant user growth reported [30][32]. AI Visual Generation - The AI visual generation market is expected to grow significantly, with Kuaishou Keling and Google Veo being key players [36][40]. - Kuaishou Keling is set to release multiple updates that could enhance its market position, with revenue projections indicating a strong performance [44][49].

2026 年 1 月 14 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,848 | 0.90 | 4.75 | | 恒生国企 | 9,285 | 0.71 | 4.17 | | 恒生科技 | 5,870 | 0.11 | 6.41 | | 上证综指 | 4,139 | -0.64 | 4.28 | | 深证综指 | 2,676 | -1.42 | 5.73 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,322 | -1.96 | 3.71 | | 美国道琼斯 | 49,192 | -0.80 | 2.35 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,964 | -0.19 | 1.73 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 23,710 | -0.10 | 2.01 | | 德国 DAX | 25,421 | 0.06 | 3.80 | | 法国 CAC ...

2026 年 1 月 13 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 全球市场观察 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,608 | 1.44 | 3.82 | | 恒生国企 | 9,220 | 1.90 | 3.44 | | 恒生科技 | 5,863 | 3.10 | 6.29 | | 上证综指 | 4,165 | 1.09 | 4.95 | | 深证综指 | 2,715 | 2.05 | 7.25 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,388 | 1.82 | 5.78 | | 美国道琼斯 | 49,590 | 0.17 | 3.18 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,977 | 0.16 | 1.92 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 23,734 | 0.26 | 2.12 | | 德国 DAX | 25,405 | 0.57 | 3.74 | | 法国 CAC | 8, ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" for companies such as 三生制药 (1530 HK), 固生堂 (2273 HK), 药明合联 (2268 HK), and 中国生物制药 (1177 HK) [3][4][32]. Core Insights - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has increased by 11.8% since the beginning of 2026, outperforming the MSCI China Index which rose by 9.1%. The pharmaceutical sector has seen significant growth due to strong institutional investor interest at the start of the year following a valuation correction in Q4 of the previous year [2]. - The trend of innovative drugs going overseas is expected to continue in the long term, with a focus on the clinical progress and data validation of pipelines that have already gone abroad [2]. - The domestic innovative drug market is still relatively small, with an estimated market size of 300-400 billion RMB, of which domestic innovative drugs account for about 1/3, or 100-130 billion RMB. If the proportion of patented drugs in China reaches 66% like the global average, the market size could potentially reach around 760 billion RMB [6]. Summary by Sections Company Recommendations - Recommended companies for investment include 三生制药 (1530 HK), 固生堂 (2273 HK), 药明合联 (2268 HK), and 中国生物制药 (1177 HK) [3][4]. Market Trends - The market for domestic innovative drugs is characterized by high demand due to aging populations, weak pricing from insurance negotiations, strong competition, and short product life cycles. The global pharmaceutical market is projected to reach 1.74 trillion USD in 2024, with China's market size at 166 billion USD, representing only 9.5% of the global market [6]. - The potential market size for domestic innovative drugs going abroad could reach 110 billion USD, nearly 800 billion RMB, if one-third of the global patented drug market is sourced from China [6]. Clinical Development and Financials - In 2025, the total transaction amount for BD (business development) licensing for Chinese innovative drugs is expected to reach 135.65 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 161%, with 70 million USD in upfront payments [6]. - Basic medical insurance expenditure showed a slight recovery in 2025, with cumulative spending growth of 0.5% and income growth of 2.9%, indicating a shift in the growth catalyst from insurance to out-of-pocket and commercial insurance [6].

2026 年 1 月 12 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观/行业点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,232 | 0.32 | 2.35 | | 恒生国企 | 9,049 | 0.10 | 1.51 | | 恒生科技 | 5,687 | 0.15 | 3.10 | | 上证综指 | 4,120 | 0.92 | 3.82 | | 深证综指 | 2,660 | 1.34 | 5.10 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,328 | 0.77 | 3.89 | | 美国道琼斯 | 49,504 | 0.48 | 3.00 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,966 | 0.65 | 1.76 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 23,671 | 0.81 | 1.85 | | 德国 DAX | 25,262 | 0.53 | 3.15 | | 法国 CAC | 8 ...

2026 年 1 月 12 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 Economic Perspectives - 就业走弱 就业走弱 美国 12 月新增非农就业低于预期，10 月和 11 月数据下修，显示就业市场走 弱。新增就业主要集中在酒店休闲和教育医疗等服务行业，建筑和制造业就 业减少。DOGE 影响告一段落，联邦政府就业首次连续回升。12 月失业率降 至 4.4%，11月失业率被下修至 4.54%，因为劳动参与率下降和劳工供应减少 抵消劳工需求走弱。市场对年内可能降息 50 个基点的预期变化不大。我们预 计美联储全年仅在 6 月降息一次 25 个基点，很大程度作为新任主席上任后的 政治表态。上半年美国经济可能处于金发姑娘状态，减税政策提振经济增 长，油价和房租通胀回落抵消商品通胀反弹，美元流动性保持宽松状态，风 险资产可能走高。下半年美国经济可能呈现滞涨趋势，经济增速放缓，而通 胀止跌回升，美元流动性收紧预期升温，风险资产可能回调。 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingna ...

2026 年 1 月 9 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,149 | -1.17 | 2.02 | | 恒生国企 | 9,039 | -1.09 | 1.41 | | 恒生科技 | 5,678 | -1.05 | 2.94 | | 上证综指 | 4,083 | -0.07 | 2.88 | | 深证综指 | 2,625 | 0.17 | 3.72 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,302 | -0.82 | 3.10 | | 美国道琼斯 | 49,266 | 0.55 | 2.50 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,921 | 0.01 | 1.11 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 23,480 | -0.44 | 1.02 | | 德国 DAX | 25,127 | 0.02 | 2.60 | | 法国 CAC | ...