海外流动性与权益市场跟踪：市场对美联储降息预期回摆

Economic Indicators - The U.S. added 254,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly exceeding the revised August figure of 159,000 and the market expectation of 150,000[3] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest since June 2024[3] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI remained stable, while the services PMI increased by 3.4%[3] Market Trends - Chinese assets continued to outperform globally, with A-shares leading H-shares, followed by precious metals and the U.S. dollar[3] - The valuation comparison shows Chinese markets > U.S. markets > developed markets > Japanese stocks > Indian stocks, with Hong Kong and A-share valuations still at the lowest percentiles[3] - The U.S. financial conditions index has been rising, indicating improved liquidity, while the LIBOR-OIS spread has slightly decreased[3][13] Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November have risen to 88.7%, with a 11.3% chance of no change[3][11] - The probability of further rate cuts this year has narrowed significantly, approaching 100%[3][12] - The People's Bank of China lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points and the 7-day reverse repo rate by 20 basis points in September[12] Commodity Performance - Commodity prices have generally risen, with energy prices leading the gains, followed by rebar steel, agricultural products, and precious metals[3][8] - Recent trends show a broad increase in commodity prices over the past month, particularly in energy and silver[3][8] Credit Risk - Credit risk indicators have risen across major economies, with North American CDS, European ITRAXX, and Japanese ITRAXX all trending upwards[15]