国海证券：晨会纪要2024年第172期-20241009

Group 1: Latest Report Summary - The report highlights a shift in market sentiment towards a bull market, particularly in the securities and insurance sectors, with a focus on potential growth in cryptocurrency [1][2] - The securities sector is experiencing a significant rebound, with the Securities II Index rising by 10.68% as of September 30, 2024, and the broker index PB (lf) recovering to 1.43 times [1][2] - The insurance sector is benefiting from a "policy combination" that enhances both asset and liability sides, with major insurers showing a low average PEV of 0.71, indicating a high safety margin [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - In the securities sector, the report emphasizes the importance of mergers and acquisitions and market sentiment as catalysts for upward movement, with a notable increase in trading volumes for several broker stocks [1][2] - The insurance sector is expected to see improved investment returns due to a favorable stock market environment, particularly benefiting from FVTPL investment income [2] - The cryptocurrency market is currently under pressure, but there is optimism for a potential breakout in Bitcoin prices, especially if the resistance level of $70,000 to $73,000 is surpassed [3] Group 3: Macro and Strategy Insights - The macro-driven strategy has shown an annualized excess return of 4.47% from January 2016 to September 2024, with a focus on sectors such as coal, retail, and communication for October recommendations [5] - The dynamic balance strategy has achieved an annualized absolute return of 16.81% since 2015, with recommended sectors including non-ferrous metals, electronics, and automotive [5] - The multi-strategy approach has yielded an annualized relative return of 7.72% since 2011, with a focus on banking, petrochemicals, and automotive sectors for October [5]