宏观经济分析报告：且行且珍惜

Market Performance - A-shares have entered a self-reinforcing upward phase, increasing uncertainty in future operations[2] - During the National Day holiday, Hong Kong stocks and the A50 index surged, with both the Hang Seng Tech Index and A50 index rising over 10%[3] - There is a clear demand for A-shares to catch up post-holiday due to the market closure during the holiday[3] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI rebounded in September, while the service PMI continued to weaken, indicating overall economic weakness[4] - Historical data shows that stock market performance can diverge significantly from economic fundamentals, with potential for large discrepancies[6] Market Dynamics - Stock market performance is generally highly correlated with economic fundamentals, but various factors influence this relationship[7] - The self-fulfilling mechanism of asset performance can lead to cycles of "rise-buy-rise," creating uncertainty in future market evolution[7] Long-term Outlook - Over a longer time frame, stock market trends are expected to revert to economic fundamentals, with potential pressure if policy measures are insufficient[7] - Risk warning: Policies may not meet expectations, which could impact market performance negatively[8]