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券商板块观点更新：业绩弹性有望支撑券商后续向上空间
CAITONG SECURITIES·2024-10-09 03:23

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the brokerage sector is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The brokerage sector is expected to see upward price movement supported by performance elasticity, with a notable increase in A-share trading volume reaching 3.48 trillion yuan on October 8, 2024, marking a historical high [5] - A-share brokerages have shown a rebound, while H-share brokerages have declined, indicating that the A/H premium still has room for growth compared to historical averages [5] - The report emphasizes the potential for significant performance improvement in brokerages due to increased trading volumes, with estimated profit increments of 9%, 19%, and 28% for average daily trading volumes of 1.5 trillion, 2.0 trillion, and 2.5 trillion yuan, respectively [5] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on leading brokerages with improved return on equity (ROE) due to resource optimization and risk control, specifically recommending stocks like China Merchants Securities, Huatai Securities, CITIC Securities, GF Securities, and East Money [3][4] Key Company Ratings - China Merchants Securities: Market Cap 185.93 billion yuan, Rating: "Accumulate" [4] - Huatai Securities: Market Cap 174.77 billion yuan, Rating: "Accumulate" [4] - CITIC Securities: Market Cap 443.43 billion yuan, Rating: "Accumulate" [4] - GF Securities: Market Cap 94.35 billion yuan, Rating: "Not Rated" [4] - East Money: Market Cap 384.54 billion yuan, Rating: "Accumulate" [4] Market Performance - On October 8, 2024, A-share brokerages rose by 10.87%, while H-share brokerages fell by 27.60%, indicating a significant divergence in performance [5] - The A/H premium for major brokerages has expanded, with premiums of -2%, -6%, and -17% for CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and China Merchants Securities, respectively, compared to historical averages of 60%, 65%, and 114% [5] Sensitivity Analysis - The report includes a sensitivity analysis showing that brokerages with higher revenue from brokerage services, such as East Money, Huatai Securities, and Changjiang Securities, will experience greater profit elasticity with increased trading volumes [7]