Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 26.43 for 2024, based on a 12x PE multiple [2] Core Investment Thesis - Long-term: The company is well-positioned to benefit from global capacity coordination, electrification trends, and localization, with battery box business as a key growth driver [2] - Medium-term: Traditional exterior parts business is expected to grow steadily due to trends in intelligence and integration [2] - Short-term: Revenue is pressured by downstream customers, but battery box business is growing rapidly due to increased market share of new energy vehicles [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 20.52 billion in 2023 to RMB 36.45 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 21.0% [3] - Net profit is projected to increase from RMB 1.90 billion in 2023 to RMB 3.97 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 26.7% [3] - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 1.65 in 2023 to RMB 3.42 in 2026 [3] Business Overview - The company is a global leader in automotive exterior parts and battery boxes, with over 70 factories worldwide [12] - Key product lines include metal and trim parts, plastic parts, aluminum parts, and battery boxes, contributing 25.6%, 26.4%, 20.3%, and 16.6% of total revenue in 2023, respectively [15] - The battery box business has grown rapidly, with revenue increasing from RMB 270 million in 2021 to RMB 3.54 billion in 2023 [18] Market Trends - Europe's electrification trend remains strong despite subsidy reductions, driven by carbon emission regulations and fuel economy standards [26] - The global battery box market is expected to reach RMB 63.8 billion by 2026, with a CAGR of 21.0% [44] - Localization is becoming a key trend, with the company expanding its overseas capacity to meet customer demands [55] Competitive Advantages - The company has a comprehensive product portfolio and strong R&D capabilities, with a focus on high-performance aluminum materials [53] - It has a diversified customer base, including major automakers such as Volkswagen, BMW, and Renault [54] - The company's vertical integration in the supply chain provides cost advantages and enhances its technological development capabilities [53] Industry Outlook - The automotive exterior parts market is expected to grow due to trends in intelligence and integration, with the company benefiting from its mature technology and patent barriers [2] - The battery box industry is highly competitive, but the company's cost efficiency, comprehensive manufacturing processes, and global capacity give it a strong position [47]
敏实集团：三重逻辑驱动下的深蹲起跳