Workflow
新华保险:2024Q3业绩预增点评:业绩大超预期,持续推荐

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 64.22 CNY, compared to the current price of 51.06 CNY [2]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, estimated between 18.607 billion CNY and 20.515 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 95% to 115% [2]. - The primary drivers for this performance are a low base effect and a recovery in the equity market, with the company increasing its equity allocation significantly [2]. - The company's core equity allocation ratio is leading compared to its peers, indicating a notable elasticity in performance due to the equity market recovery [2]. - Premium income saw substantial growth in August 2024, primarily due to a low base and adjustments in predetermined interest rates, with a year-on-year increase of 122% in August alone [2]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 97.602 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 36.4% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 24.573 billion CNY for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 182.1% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise to 7.9 CNY in 2024, with further increases to 8.2 CNY in 2025 and 8.5 CNY in 2026 [3]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 6.5 for 2024, decreasing to 6.0 by 2026 [3].