氟化工行业月报：三代制冷剂政策延续，看好制冷剂景气向上

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the refrigerant industry, suggesting a high level of market activity and profitability for related companies in the coming years [3][89]. Core Insights - As of September 30, 2024, the prices of third-generation refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a have increased by 7.04%, 10.17%, and 1.52% respectively compared to the end of August, indicating a rising trend in refrigerant prices [3][7]. - The 2025 refrigerant quota draft has been released, which will increase the supply of R32, suggesting that refrigerant prices will continue to rise in the long term [3][86]. - The demand for refrigerants is supported by the increasing production of household air conditioners, with production expected to reach 11.77 million units in October 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.95% [3][55]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant industry and those with a complete industrial chain, such as Juhua Co., Ltd. and Sanmei Co., Ltd. [3][89]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights - The price of R22 has remained stable at 30,000 yuan/ton, with a significant increase of 53.85% since the beginning of 2024 [3][22]. - The production quotas for second-generation refrigerants are being reduced, which is expected to drive up prices [3][86]. 2. Refrigerant Tracking - The production rates for R32, R134a, and R125 have shown a decline in September 2024, with respective production rates of 44.14%, 43.67%, and 35.54% [14][33]. - The total inventory of R32, R134a, and R125 has decreased significantly since December 2023, indicating a tightening supply [16][38]. 3. Fluoropolymer Insights - Prices for fluoropolymers such as PTFE, PVDF, and HFP remain low due to rapid capacity increases and slowing demand growth [3][63]. - The production and inventory levels of fluoropolymers have remained stable, with slight fluctuations in output [75][79]. 4. Industry News - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has published a draft for the 2025 quota for ozone-depleting substances, which includes significant reductions in production quotas for certain refrigerants [86][88]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the refrigerant industry will maintain a high level of activity and profitability, particularly for companies that are leaders in the sector [89].