HUAXI Securities·2024-10-09 06:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company has reported a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with an expected range of CNY 18.607 billion to CNY 20.515 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 95% to 115% [2][3] - The increase in performance is attributed to a rise in investment in equity assets and improved management of insurance liabilities, alongside a recovery in the capital market [3] - The company is expected to benefit from the current stock market recovery, with its equity sensitivity being notably high compared to other insurance companies [4] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company anticipates a net profit of CNY 75.24 billion to CNY 94.32 billion for Q3 2024, marking a turnaround from losses in the same period of 2023, with an increase of CNY 79.60 billion to CNY 98.68 billion year-on-year [2][3] Investment Strategy - The company has increased its allocation to equity assets, which has positively impacted its investment returns, especially with the recent market upturn where the CSI 300 index rose by 15% in Q3 2024 compared to a 5% decline in Q3 2023 [3] Financial Projections - The revenue forecast for 2024 has been raised to CNY 90.828 billion from a previous estimate of CNY 82.7 billion, with net profit projections adjusted to CNY 20 billion from CNY 12.3 billion [5] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is now CNY 6.40, up from CNY 3.95 [5] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings value (PEV) for 2024 is projected at 0.55, with estimates for 2025 and 2026 at 0.54 and 0.51 respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [5]