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大类资产配置月报(2024年10月)
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-09 06:23

Group 1: Market Performance - In September 2024, the CSI 800 index surged by 21.80%, leading the market, while the Nikkei 225 declined by 1.84%[6] - Year-to-date, the CSI 800 has recorded a return of 16.94%, outperforming the S&P 500's 17.96%[7] - The annualized return for the CSI 800 is 24.35%, with a maximum drawdown of -13.80%[7] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The "Low Volatility 'Fixed Income+'" strategy achieved an annualized return of 6.63% with a volatility of 3.43% from January 2015 to September 2024[2] - The "Global Asset Allocation Strategy II" yielded an annualized return of 10.00% and a maximum drawdown of -9.97% over the same period[2] - The "Stock-Bond Target Allocation Risk Budget Strategy" aims to optimize the risk-return profile by dynamically adjusting stock and bond allocations[15] Group 3: Asset Allocation Recommendations - For A-shares, focus on more elastic investment directions, particularly in sectors like brokerage, technology, new energy, consumption, and pharmaceuticals[13] - The report suggests maintaining a neutral stance on U.S. equities due to economic uncertainties and upcoming elections[13] - Indian equities are highlighted for their resilience and growth potential, likely attracting global capital during the Fed's rate-cutting cycle[13] Group 4: Fund Flows - As of October 6, 2024, U.S.-listed China-themed ETFs saw a record net inflow of $4.189 billion in the week ending September 30, 2024[8] - The total scale of U.S.-listed China-themed ETFs reached approximately $17.72 billion, with significant inflows into KWEB and FXI ETFs[8][12]