
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][3] Core Views - In September 2024, the company achieved a record high in new energy vehicle sales, with a total of 202,000 units sold, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 21% [3] - The new energy vehicle sales reached 91,000 units in September 2024, accounting for over 45% of total sales, with a year-on-year growth of about 76% [3] - The company is expected to see continued revenue and net profit growth due to the implementation of the "Smart Geely 2025" strategy, with projected net profits of 15.95 billion, 13.22 billion, and 17.25 billion yuan for 2024-2026 [3][4] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 179.2 billion yuan in 2023 to 388.2 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 24% [4][6] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 15.95 billion yuan, a significant increase from 5.17 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 209% [4][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.58 yuan in 2024, increasing to 1.71 yuan by 2026 [4][6] Valuation Metrics - The company is assigned a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8-10 times for 2024, corresponding to a fair value range of 13.79 to 17.24 HKD [3][5] - Compared to peers, the average P/E ratio for comparable companies is 22.0 for 2024, indicating that the company may be undervalued [5] Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow is expected to increase from 22.34 billion yuan in 2023 to 26.49 billion yuan in 2024, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [6] - The net cash increase is projected to be 10.003 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting positive cash flow management [6] Balance Sheet Overview - Total assets are expected to grow from 192.6 billion yuan in 2023 to 294.7 billion yuan in 2026, indicating robust asset growth [7] - The company's equity attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 80.5 billion yuan in 2023 to 126.9 billion yuan in 2026 [7]