周度经济观察：政策预期扭转，市场波动加剧

Economic Indicators - During the National Day holiday, domestic tourism reached 765 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% and a 10.2% increase compared to 2019[3] - Total spending by domestic tourists was 700.82 billion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year and 7.9% compared to 2019[3] - The number of commercial performances during the holiday was 44,300, with box office revenue of 2.209 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.9%[3] Market Trends - The recent rise in the equity market is primarily driven by a shift in policy expectations, leading to a valuation rebound, with a significant increase in trading volume reaching 3.48 trillion yuan, a historical record[5] - The financial sector saw the largest gains, indicating improved performance in a bullish market, while growth stocks benefited from greater elasticity[5] - The bond market exhibited less volatility compared to equities, with the 10-year government bond yield remaining stable, while credit bond yields increased due to instability in the liability side of financial products[6] Policy Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need for a comprehensive approach to economic stability and structural improvement, highlighting the challenges posed by a complex external environment[2] - Future market performance will depend on the continuation of fiscal and real estate policies, with potential for increased volatility if these policies do not materialize[5] - The report indicates that the basic economic fundamentals remain unchanged, with confidence in achieving annual economic and social development goals[2] U.S. Labor Market - In September, the U.S. added 254,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding expectations and reversing a trend of downward revisions in previous months[8] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%, while the labor force participation rate remained stable at 62.7%[9] - Wage growth showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in the labor market[9]