2024年9月经济数据前瞻：市场已筑底回升，经济还远吗

Economic Overview - The current economic environment faces challenges from "de-real estate" and "de-China" trends, with a strong policy strategy focusing on a "manufacturing nation" approach to counter these issues[1] - Q3 GDP growth is expected to be around 4.7%, slightly lower than the previous quarter due to a slowdown in industrial production and external pressures[5][27] Industrial Production - Industrial production is anticipated to show a slight month-on-month recovery, with September's industrial added value expected to grow by approximately 4.7% year-on-year[1][29] - The official manufacturing PMI rose by 0.7 percentage points to 49.8%, indicating a return to expansion territory for production[29] Retail Sales - Retail sales in September are projected to increase by 2.0% year-on-year, with restaurant-related sales expected to rise by 4.5% and automotive sales declining by 1.0%[2][36] - The automotive market is experiencing a rebound due to government policies supporting vehicle replacement, with a total market size of approximately 2.1 million units sold in September[36] Investment Trends - Infrastructure investment is expected to grow by 4.0% year-on-year for the first nine months of the year, supported by accelerated special bond issuance[40] - Manufacturing investment is projected to maintain a growth rate of around 8.9% year-on-year, bolstered by favorable policies and market conditions[28][40] Trade Performance - In September, exports and imports are expected to grow by 9.4% and 6.2% year-on-year, respectively, with a trade surplus of approximately $99.3 billion[2][28] - The increase in shipping rates and demand for exports is attributed to competitive pricing and improved domestic consumption[2] Inflation and Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 0.7% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to decline by 2.5%[3][28] - Key factors influencing CPI include rising pork prices, which are expected to reach around 30 yuan per kilogram by year-end[3] Financial Data - New loans in September are estimated at approximately 1.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 690 billion yuan, with a loan balance growth rate of around 8.1%[4][28] - Social financing is projected to increase by approximately 3.3 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 7.9%[4][28] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy measures falling short of expectations, unexpected downturns in the real estate market, and geopolitical tensions affecting exports[4]