交通运输行业：交运顺周期买什么

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - A comprehensive set of counter-cyclical policies has been announced by the central bank and regulatory bodies to support capital market stability, which is expected to reverse pessimistic expectations and stimulate economic growth [2][12] - The transportation industry is cyclical and closely related to macroeconomic performance, with several companies at the bottom of the cycle now presenting investment opportunities [3][12] Summary by Sections 1. Counter-Cyclical Policies Expected to Drive Cyclical Sector Reversal - The announcement of counter-cyclical policies includes measures from monetary, fiscal, and capital market policies aimed at stabilizing development [12][13] - The policies are expected to generate a comprehensive effect of expanding consumption, stabilizing growth, and preventing risks [12][13] 2. Aviation: Anticipating a Turning Point and Expecting Cyclical Upswing - The aviation sector is identified as a typical cyclical industry influenced by demand, supply, oil prices, and exchange rates [14][15] - Recent improvements in fiscal and monetary policies are expected to catalyze domestic demand and optimize the supply-demand structure in the aviation market [15][20] 3. Shipping: Domestic Container, Bulk Cargo, and Oil Transportation Expected to Benefit - The shipping sector is categorized by its reliance on domestic demand, particularly in domestic container transport, which is closely tied to infrastructure and construction needs [30][31] - Bulk cargo and oil transportation are also expected to benefit from increased domestic demand and supply-side stimuli [30][31] 4. Logistics: Bulk Supply Chain, Chemical Logistics, and Express Delivery Expected to Benefit - The logistics sector is anticipated to benefit sequentially from demand recovery, starting with bulk supply chains, followed by chemical logistics and express delivery services [42][50] - Companies in the bulk supply chain are expected to see profit recovery as demand improves, particularly in metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals [42][50]