Soochow Securities·2024-10-09 09:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - September sales exceeded expectations with 420,000 units sold, a month-on-month increase of 12% [3][9] - For the first nine months of the year, total sales reached 2.748 million units, a year-on-year increase of 32% [3][9] - The company is expected to sell over 4 million units in 2024, representing a 32% year-on-year growth, and maintain a growth rate of over 20% in 2025 [3][9] Sales Performance - In September, BYD's sales included 253,000 plug-in hybrid vehicles, accounting for 60.5% of total sales, and 165,000 pure electric vehicles, making up 39.5% [3][11] - The high-end model sales showed growth, with Tengshi selling 10,000 units in September, and the upcoming Leopard 8 model expected to boost sales further [3][11] Battery Installation and Production - BYD installed 128 GWh of batteries in the first nine months, a 27% year-on-year increase, with September installations reaching 19.8 GWh [3][18] - The company aims to ship 240 GWh of batteries in 2024, reflecting a growth of 25-30% [3][18] Financial Forecasts - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 has been revised upwards to 38.1 billion, 48.1 billion, and 59.1 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 27%, 26%, and 23% [4][20] - The target price for BYD is set at 414 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 25x for 2025 [4][20] Market Data - As of the report date, BYD's closing price was 305.69 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 889.33 billion yuan [6][21]