9月经济数据预测：政策发力前夕的增长压力

Economic Growth - The GDP growth rate for Q3 is estimated to be around 4.6%, lower than Q2 due to weak demand and a slowdown in consumption and investment[3][12] - Exports are expected to contribute significantly to GDP growth, with a projected year-on-year increase of 7.7% in September[7][28] Production and Investment - Industrial added value is anticipated to grow by 4.2% year-on-year in September, supported by a recovery in manufacturing PMI[4][15] - Fixed asset investment growth is projected at 3.2%, driven primarily by manufacturing investment growth of 9.0% and infrastructure investment growth of 4.0%[4][17] Consumption Trends - Retail sales are expected to increase by 2.2% year-on-year in September, reflecting a slow recovery in consumption and a decline in service consumption[5][19] - The automotive market shows signs of improvement, with a projected retail market size of approximately 2.1 million vehicles in September, a 4.0% year-on-year increase[19] Price Levels - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to grow by 0.6% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to decline to -2.6%[6][21] - The decline in PPI is attributed to lower prices for industrial products and raw materials, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.5% expected in September[25] Financial Data - New credit issuance in September is estimated at 1.8 trillion yuan, with total social financing expected to reach 3.5 trillion yuan[8][30] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing is projected to remain around 8%, indicating a slight decline in credit growth[8][30]