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煤炭行业周报：政策力度超预期，煤价有望偏强运行
Xiangcai Securities·2024-10-09 09:37

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" [6] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has seen a 6.1% increase, with valuations rebounding week-on-week [2] - Domestic and international thermal coal prices are stable, with expectations for strong performance due to favorable industrial electricity demand [3] - Coking coal prices are rising, supported by improved demand expectations and seasonal factors [4] - Investment recommendations focus on leading coal companies with strong resource endowments and undervalued coking coal firms [5][54] Summary by Sections Market Review - The coal sector increased by 6.1%, while the benchmark index (CSI 300) rose by 8.5%, indicating a 2.4 percentage point underperformance [2] - The sector's PE valuation stands at 12.7 times, at the 66.9 percentile over the past decade, and the PB valuation is at 1.5 times, at the 69.2 percentile, showing a significant week-on-week rebound [2] Thermal Coal Outlook - Domestic thermal coal prices remain stable, with the market price for Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal at 875 RMB/ton as of October 6, unchanged week-on-week [3] - International prices for Australian NEWC, European ARA, and South African RB thermal coal are 140 USD/ton, 115 USD/ton, and 107 USD/ton respectively, also stable week-on-week [3] - Industrial electricity demand is expected to improve due to supportive policies, with an increase in both industrial and residential electricity consumption anticipated [3] Coking Coal Outlook - Domestic coking coal prices are rising, with Shanxi Luliang main coking coal priced at 1650 RMB/ton, a 5.77% increase week-on-week [4] - Internationally, Australian hard coking coal prices are at 212 USD/ton, up 3.92% week-on-week [4] - The demand for coking coal is expected to improve due to supportive real estate policies and seasonal demand increases [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading thermal coal companies with strong resource advantages and coking coal firms with low valuations and improving operational conditions [5][54]