食品饮料行业专题研究：国内糖蜜价格周期复盘&展望

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report reviews the price cycles of molasses from 2008 to present, highlighting that demand changes have created price elasticity for molasses, while other factors exacerbate price fluctuations [3] - The upcoming 2024/25 crushing season is expected to see a downward trend in molasses prices due to structural adjustments in demand, particularly a slowdown in yeast demand [4][27] - The supply side is projected to recover, with molasses production expected to reach 3.2 to 3.3 million tons in the new crushing season [4][33] Summary by Sections 1. Review of Molasses Price Cycles Since 2008 - The molasses supply is limited and has low elasticity due to factors such as weather, planting intentions, and import bans [3][11] - The demand for molasses is primarily driven by yeast, with additional uses in alcohol and feed, showing overall high elasticity [3][12] - The report outlines three major price cycles since 2008, with significant price fluctuations influenced by both supply and demand dynamics [13][15] 2. Outlook for the 2024/25 Crushing Season - Demand for molasses is expected to undergo structural adjustments, with a slowdown in yeast demand and marginal decreases in alcohol and feed demand [4][31] - The supply side is anticipated to improve, with molasses production projected to rise to 3.2 to 3.3 million tons due to increased planting area and yield [4][33] - The report predicts that molasses prices may drop below 1,300 yuan/ton, with a potential short-term support level around 1,200 yuan/ton [41] 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the domestic yeast market is concentrated, with major players like Angel Yeast and Lesaffre holding a significant market share [27] - The report highlights that the supply of molasses is expected to recover, while the demand from the alcohol sector is projected to decrease due to price competition from substitutes like corn and cassava [31][42] - Trade dynamics are shifting, with traders showing lower willingness to stockpile molasses due to slow sales [31][41]