宏观研究月报：谋定而后动，经济稳增长可期

Economic Growth and Industrial Performance - In August, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 4.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The profit growth of industrial enterprises in August was -17.8%, a decline of 21.9 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by high temperature and seasonal factors[10] - Fixed asset investment from January to August increased by 3.4% year-on-year, with real estate investment down by 10.2%[13] Trade and Consumption Trends - In August, China's exports amounted to $308.65 billion, with a growth rate of 8.7%, while imports grew only by 0.5%, leading to a trade surplus of $91.02 billion[18] - Retail sales of consumer goods in August increased by 2.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from July[15] - The share of county and rural retail sales in total retail sales rose to 38%, up by 0.7 percentage points from the previous year[15] Price Indices and Inflation - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August rose by 0.6% year-on-year, with food prices increasing by 2.8%[22] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) recorded a year-on-year decline of 1.8%, marking the 23rd consecutive month of negative growth for production materials[26] Financial and Policy Environment - The total social financing in August increased by 30.31 billion yuan, but the year-on-year growth rate fell to 8.1%[33] - The central bank's net cash withdrawal in the first nine months of the year reached 12,809 billion yuan, indicating a tightening liquidity environment[37] - Government budget revenue from January to August was 147,776 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 2.6%[40]