Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nine Dragons Paper (02689) [3] Core Views - Nine Dragons Paper's FY2024 performance met expectations with revenue of RMB 59.496 billion, up 4.9% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 751 million, turning from a loss to a profit [3] - The company achieved a sales volume of 19.6 million tons, up 18.3% YoY, with a profit per ton of RMB 38 [3] - In H2 FY2024, revenue was RMB 28.885 billion, up 13.1% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 458 million and a profit per ton of RMB 48 [3] - The company's strategic layout in pulp-paper integration and product diversification is gradually showing results, with significant improvement in profitability [3] - The company's capacity expansion is progressing, with new capacities in chemical pulp, mechanical pulp, and cultural paper expected to further stabilize profitability [3] Financial Performance - FY2024 revenue breakdown by product: corrugated paper RMB 33.035 billion (+17.7% YoY), white board paper RMB 8.148 billion (-4.1% YoY), cultural paper RMB 4.134 billion (-12.0% YoY) [3] - FY2024 sales volume breakdown: corrugated paper 11.1 million tons (+32.9% YoY), white board paper 2.7 million tons, cultural paper 0.7 million tons [3] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio rose to 65.0% at the end of FY2024, up 2.4 percentage points YoY, due to large-scale capacity expansion [3] - FY2024 operating cash flow was a net outflow of RMB 794 million, but improved significantly in H2 with a net inflow of RMB 1.719 billion [5] Future Outlook - The company plans capital expenditure of RMB 12.8 billion in FY2025, similar to FY2024, with expectations of a gradual improvement in the debt-to-asset ratio from FY2026 onwards [3] - The company's profit per ton is expected to continue improving, supported by pulp-paper integration and product diversification strategies [3] - The report forecasts FY2025-2027 net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 1.444 billion, RMB 2.234 billion, and RMB 3.243 billion, respectively, with PE ratios of 10.9X, 7.1X, and 4.9X [5] Industry Analysis - The paper industry is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics as downstream demand recovers, import paper impact eases, and leading paper companies slow down new capacity additions [5] - Leading companies with advantages in raw materials, scale, and management are expected to continue consolidating the market [5]
玖龙纸业：FY2024年报点评：业绩表现符合预期，浆纸一体化、产品多元化布局逐渐成型，期待后续行业景气改善