机械行业2024年三季报业绩前瞻：周期反转，成长崛起，强调顺周期、成长、并购重组

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [3][18] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a cyclical reversal and growth in the machinery industry, particularly recommending sectors such as construction machinery, cyclical stocks, growth segments, and mergers and acquisitions [2][5] - The report highlights the impact of monetary easing and stable real estate policies on domestic demand for construction machinery, with expectations of improved performance in Q3 2024 for key companies [2][6] - The report outlines a three-step stock selection strategy focusing on rebound from oversold conditions, blue-chip stocks, and technology growth [2][6] Summary by Sections Construction Machinery - The report predicts significant growth for major players like SANY Heavy Industry, with expected profit increases of over 100% in Q3 2024 compared to the previous year [2][16] - Domestic sales of excavators are expected to show a positive growth trend, with September 2024 sales estimated at approximately 16,000 units, a year-on-year increase of about 12% [5][6] Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing an upward cycle driven by new ship orders and environmental policies, with a 26% year-on-year increase in new orders from January to August 2024 [7][8] - Key companies such as China Shipbuilding and China State Shipbuilding are expected to benefit from this trend [7][8] Industrial Gases - The industrial gas sector is projected to stabilize and improve, with a market size nearing 200 billion yuan and a compound annual growth rate of 11% over the past five years [8][11] - Companies like Hangyang Co. and others are recommended for investment [8][11] Semiconductor Equipment - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to see robust growth driven by advanced production and domestic acceleration, with key recommendations including Northern Huachuang and others [10][12] Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is entering a dual-driven phase supported by internal policies and international AI giants, with significant growth potential [10][12] - Recommended companies include Sanhua Intelligent Controls and others [10][12] Testing and Inspection - The testing and inspection industry is anticipated to grow at a rate of approximately 10% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, driven by policy support and demand recovery [11][12] - Companies like Huace Testing and Su Shi Testing are highlighted as key players [11][12]