宏观经济研究：模型视角下的中国利率、物价与经济

Interest Rates and Economic Trends - China's real interest rates remain high, with both SHIBOR and weighted loan rates at their highest levels in the past 15 years[1] - High real interest rates are suppressing CPI and reducing loan demand, with limited loan demand growth expected in 2024[1] - The natural interest rate in China has declined from 11.74% in 2008 to 4.89% by the end of 2023, approaching the weighted loan rate[2] - China may remain in a long-term rate-cutting cycle, with 2024 likely to be another year of significant rate cuts[2] Inflation and Price Trends - China's core CPI has been declining since 2020, with a central level dropping from 0.14% to 0.06%[42] - The VAR model predicts that China's price level growth will remain positive until 2030, indicating no long-term deflation[52] - China's inflation trajectory shows similarities to Japan's historical trends, particularly in housing and rent indices[43] Monetary Policy and Market Dynamics - The Taylor rule is not well-suited for China due to its transition from capital scarcity to surplus and incomplete interest rate marketization[35] - China's monetary policy is primarily driven by money supply adjustments, with interest rate transmission mechanisms remaining inefficient[38] - Short-term interest rates have risen significantly, leading to an inverted yield curve and potential economic divergence[15] Risk and Structural Challenges - China's risk aversion coefficient has fluctuated between 0 and 2, with significant increases in 2020 and 2022 due to COVID-19[4] - Aging demographics pose deflationary pressures, requiring large-scale macroeconomic stimulus to counteract[4] - The financial system faces challenges from rising short-term rates and potential systemic risks, necessitating increased monetary easing[18]