东阿阿胶：前三季度净利预增40%-50%，好于预期

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% [6]. Core Insights - The company expects a net profit of RMB 1.1 billion to 1.175 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 40% to 50%, which is better than expected [3]. - The third quarter's net profit is projected to be around RMB 360 million to 440 million, showing a year-over-year growth of 43% to 73% [3]. - The company has initiated a semi-annual dividend of RMB 11.44 per 10 shares, with a payout ratio close to 100%, emphasizing a commitment to shareholder returns [4]. - A new equity incentive plan was announced, aiming for a compound annual growth rate of net profit of no less than 20% from 2024 to 2026 [4]. Summary by Sections Company Information - The company operates in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, with a current A-share price of RMB 57.60 as of October 9, 2024, and a market capitalization of RMB 37.093 billion [1]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 1.461 billion, RMB 1.781 billion, and RMB 2.061 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 27%, 22%, and 16% [4][5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 2.27, RMB 2.77, and RMB 3.20 for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 25X, 21X, and 18X [4][5]. Product Portfolio - The company’s product offerings include Ejiao and related products, as well as pharmaceutical trading [2]. Shareholder Engagement - The company has a significant shareholder, China Resources Dong'e Ejiao, holding 23.50% of shares [1]. Market Trends - The company has shown strong performance in the third quarter, recovering to historical profit levels, indicating a healthy sales environment and effective channel management [3]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in sales revenue during the winter season, which is traditionally a peak period for Ejiao consumption [3].