Xingfa Chem(600141)2024-10-10 02:52Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3 2024, with estimates ranging from 1.28 to 1.38 billion yuan, representing a growth of 37.07% to 47.78% [5]. - The strong performance is attributed to the sustained high demand in the phosphate chemical sector, with improved profitability in phosphate rock, phosphate fertilizer, and glyphosate products [5]. - The company is actively pursuing a spin-off listing for its subsidiary, Xingfu Electronics, which has received approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [5]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on expanding its new materials business, particularly in phosphate-based, silicon-based, and sulfur-based materials, which are expected to contribute to future profitability [5]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price as of October 9, 2024: 22.09 yuan - Market capitalization: 24,371 million yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 1.2 - Dividend yield: 2.72% [2]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company anticipates a net profit of 4.75 to 5.75 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 46% to 77% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 12% to 36% [5]. - The average prices for phosphate rock, monoammonium phosphate, and diammonium phosphate in Q3 2024 are projected to be 1,017, 3,281, and 3,645 yuan per ton, respectively, showing significant increases [5]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 29,117 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.6% [6]. Future Projections - The company’s net profit forecast for 2024 is adjusted to 1.85 billion yuan, with further projections of 2.20 billion yuan and 2.63 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.68 yuan for 2024, 1.99 yuan for 2025, and 2.39 yuan for 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 13X, 11X, and 9X [6].