（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 12月17日，兴发集团在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2025年12月10日，公司股 东总户数为52439户。 ...

化工板块持续猛攻。反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到3.74%，截至发稿，涨3.35%。 成份股方面，钾肥、锂电、氟化工等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，盐湖股份、天赐材料双双大涨超7%，多氟多、万华化学涨超6%， 兴发集团跟涨超5%。 | | | 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 | | | | F9 盘前盘后 叠加 九转 画线 工具 <> 2 | | 化 | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.805 | | | 14:25 价 0.802 | | 表 0.026(3.35%) 均价 0.792 成交量 7093 | | | 0 :302 | | +0.026 +3.35% | | | | | | | | | | SSE CNY 14:25:34 交易F | | 融/ 单 + | | 0.791 | | | | | | | 87% | 净值走势 | | 华宝化工ETF | | | | | | | | | | 愛比 | 13.85% == | ...

化工板块持续猛攻。反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到3.74%， 截至发稿，涨3.35%。 成份股方面，钾肥、锂电、氟化工等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，盐湖股份、天赐材料双双大涨 超7%，多氟多、万华化学涨超6%，兴发集团跟涨超5%。 | 序号 | ਜਿਵੇਜ਼ 名称 | 主力净流入额 5日主力净流入额 ▼ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | CI005011 电力设备及新能源(中信) | 35.63亿 | 213.43亿 | | 2 | CI005012 国防军工(中信) | -16.05亿 | 147.14亿 | | 3 | C1005006 基础化工(中信) | 83.47 亿 | 125.56亿 | | 4 | CI005026 通信(中信) | 165.71亿 | 119.40亿 | | ત્ | CI005010 机械(中信) | 68.20亿 | 116.55亿 | 来源：沪深交易所等，截至2025.12.17。 消息面上，中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟近日发布的数据显示，今年前11个月，我国动力和其他电池 累计产量和销 ...

消息面上，据上海有色网最新报价显示，12月17日，碳酸锂（99.5% 电池级/国产）价格涨1170.0元报9.71万元/吨，创逾1年新高，连涨5日，近 5日累计涨4440.0元，近30日累计涨16640.0元；氢氧化锂（56.5% 电池级粗颗粒/国产）价格涨1100.0元报8.55万元/吨，创逾1年新高，连涨5 日，近5日累计涨3630.0元，近30日累计涨9630.0元。中金公司指出，化工行业龙头有望受益于锂电材料行情反转。 从估值方面来看，当前化工板块仍具配置性价比。数据显示，截至昨日（12月16日）收盘，化工ETF（516020）标的指数细分化工指数市净率 为2.33倍，位于近10年来39.92%分位点的相对低位，中长期配置性价比凸显。 化工板块今日（12月17日）持续上攻。反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘后单边上行，盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到2.32%，截 至发稿，涨2.19%。 成份股方面，锂电、钾肥、氟化工等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，天赐材料、盐湖股份双双大涨超7%，多氟多涨超6%，万华化学、兴 发集团、藏格矿业等多股跟涨超3%。 | | | 多日 1分 5分 | 15分 ...

化工板块今日（12月17日）持续上攻。反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘后单边上行， 盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到2.32%，截至发稿，涨2.19%。 成份股方面，锂电、钾肥、氟化工等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，天赐材料、盐湖股份双双大涨 超7%，多氟多涨超6%，万华化学、兴发集团、藏格矿业等多股跟涨超3%。 | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 · | | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 壁加 九转 面线 工具 份 (2 | > | 4. TETF 1 | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ORE | | | | | 516020[化工ETF] 13:13 价 0.793 浴膜 0.017(2.19%) 均价 0.788 威交量 102 IO. | | | | | 0.793 | | +0.017 +2.19% | | | | | | NW LANS AND | | | | | | SSE CNY 13:13:28 交易中 | ...

Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes two main investment themes for the chemical industry: anti-involution policies and domestic substitution, which are expected to drive recovery and growth in the sector [4][5][6] Anti-Involution and Cycle Recovery - The report suggests that the chemical industry is at a turning point, with anti-involution measures leading to a recovery in the cycle. Key areas include the peak of new capacity in organic silicon, the end of PTA capacity expansion, and a rebound in prices for certain chemicals due to supply chain disruptions [4][5] - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) has decreased significantly, dropping to 3865 points by November 30, 2025, down 16.37% from early 2024 and 10.71% from the beginning of 2025 [4][20] Domestic Substitution as a Growth Driver - Domestic substitution is highlighted as a key growth driver, with significant support from national policies for bio-based materials and advancements in technology leading to a more robust domestic supply chain [4][6] - The report identifies several companies positioned to benefit from these trends, including KaiSai Bio and RuiFeng New Materials, which are making strides in bio-based materials and lubricant additives, respectively [5][6] Market Dynamics and Price Recovery - The report notes that while the chemical market is experiencing a downturn, certain segments are expected to see price recovery due to improved supply-demand dynamics and reduced capacity expansion [4][22] - Specific chemical products have shown varied price movements, with some experiencing significant declines while others are stabilizing or recovering [22] Manufacturing Sector Recovery - The manufacturing sector is showing signs of recovery, which is anticipated to support the chemical industry. The report mentions that the real estate market is stabilizing, and automotive production has increased, indicating a potential uptick in demand for chemical products [25][33] Capital Expenditure Trends - Capital expenditure growth in the chemical industry is slowing, with a notable decline in new projects. The report indicates that the total construction in progress for the chemical sector was 327.57 billion yuan in Q3 2025, down 17.64% year-on-year [34][39] Inventory and Consumption Trends - High inventory levels in the chemical sector are being addressed as consumer demand begins to recover. The report suggests that the inventory-to-revenue ratio for the basic chemical industry was 0.62 in Q3 2025, indicating a slight increase from the previous year [41][42] Profitability and Financial Performance - The report highlights a recovery in profitability for the chemical industry, with gross margins and return on equity (ROE) showing improvement in Q3 2025 compared to previous periods [56][60] - Specific sub-sectors, such as agrochemicals and fluorochemicals, have demonstrated significant profit growth, with some exceeding 100% year-on-year increases [55][56]

兴发集团 20251212 摘要 兴发集团 2025 年前三季度营收 237.81 亿元，同比增长 7.8%；归母净 利润 11.18 亿元，同比略增。第三季度营收和归母净利润环比分别增长 接近 24%和 42%，显示增长势头。 矿石采选业务毛利率高达 75%，贡献近一半利润，计划到"十五五"末 产能提升至 1,300 万吨。特种化学品和农药业务收入均约 40 亿元，利 润贡献显著。新能源材料板块加速扭亏，预计 2026 年全年盈利。 有机硅行业协同提价，草甘膦价格波动大但预期明年旺季补库存将带动 上涨，这两个周期性产品预计明年对公司业绩产生积极影响。肥料业务 受出口配额影响承压，但公司预计明年情况不会更差。 磷肥市场座谈会提出保供稳价措施，短期内可能抑制硫磺价格，但长期 看，受国际因素影响，硫磺价格仍可能保持高位。预计 2026 年磷肥出 口时间窗口将后移，国家加强国内供应保障。 磷酸铁产能持续扩张，现有 10 万吨产能已满负荷，明年 1 月和 7 月将 分别新增 5 万吨和 10 万吨产能。与比亚迪签订每年 8 万吨磷酸铁锂代 工协议，保障稳定收益。 麻坪磷矿已投产，预计 2026 年产能达 60%-80 ...

微信公众号"中国农资传媒"消息，当前，春耕备肥进入关键阶段。12月11日，在国家发展改革委经济贸 易司指导下，中国农业生产资料流通协会、中国磷复肥工业协会组织重点磷肥生产与流通企业召开专题 会议，深入分析当前磷肥市场形势，研究做好磷肥保供稳价工作。 硫磺是石油、天然气等传统能源炼制过程中产生的副产品，具体来自石油炼化以及天然气加工回收等， 其供应与石油、天然气市场密切相关。中国是全球最大的硫磺进口国，近50%的消费量依赖海外。2024 年中国硫磺产量为1106.74万吨，进口量为995.23万吨，进口依赖度为47%。 12月9日，磷化工龙头云天化发文表示，今年以来，磷肥的主要原料硫磺价格持续上涨，给国内化肥市 场稳定运行带来了新挑战。化肥是粮食的"粮食"，保供稳价事关国家粮食安全大局。目前已进入春耕备 肥前期，为应对成本上涨压力，促进农业生产，公司倡议积极应对硫磺成本压力、全力抓好磷肥保供稳 价。 据了解，此轮硫磺价格飙涨主要源于全球市场供应短缺以及外盘价格高涨。 会议期间，重点磷肥生产与流通企业作了关于磷肥及硫磺市场运行情况的汇报，有关部门和行业协会就 出口调节、原料保供、产销对接、销售规范等作了深入讨论， ...

Core Insights - The chemical industry is entering a favorable phase driven by demand, value, and supply dynamics [5][6][7] - Global supply constraints and the exit of European capacities are expected to enhance the market environment for the chemical sector [7] Demand Drivers - Key opportunities identified in various sectors include: - Gas turbine upstream: companies like Zhenhua Co., Yingliu Co., Longda Co., and Wanze Co. [5] - Refrigerants and fluorinated liquids: companies such as Juhua Co., New Zhoubang, and Runhe Materials [5] - Energy storage supply chain: including Chuanheng Co., Xingfa Group, Yuntianhua, Batian Co., and others [5] - Semiconductor materials: companies like Yanggu Huatai, Wanrun Co., Dinglong Co., and others [5] Value Drivers - Potential for increased dividend yields in sectors such as: - Coal chemical: Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical, and Baofeng Energy [6] - Oil refining: Hengli Petrochemical, Satellite Chemical, and Sinopec [6] - Phosphate fertilizers: Yuntianhua, Yuntu Holdings, and others [6] Supply Drivers - Domestic anti-involution policies and the exit of European production capacities are expected to support the chemical industry: - PTA and polyester filament: companies like Xin Fengming and Tongkun Co. [7] - Tire manufacturing: including Sailun Tire, Zhongce Rubber, and others [7] Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Selected companies with profit forecasts include: - Zhenhua Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 6.04 billion, PE: 21.8) [8] - Yingliu Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 4.08 billion, PE: 42.7) [8] - Longda Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 1.06 billion, PE: 34.9) [8] - Wanze Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 2.37 billion, PE: 32.9) [8] - Juhua Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 48.14 billion, PE: 24.4) [8] Industry Cycle Insights - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new cycle, with demand recovery and supply-side reforms driving growth [14][21] - The chemical price index has shown signs of recovery, indicating a potential upturn in the market [20][21]

Investment Direction 1: Dividend Strategy - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) with an expected Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026 [2][3] - CNOOC is committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027, while PetroChina benefits from domestic natural gas market reforms [2][3] Investment Direction 2: Capital Allocation to Undervalued Chemical Leaders - Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng, which are expected to benefit from industry barriers related to cost, technology, and market [2][3] - The report suggests prioritizing capital allocation to chemical ETFs and leading companies as their performance is expected to stabilize [2][3] Investment Direction 3: Price Increases Driven by Downstream Demand - Traditional demand sectors such as food additives, pesticides, and fertilizers are highlighted, with companies like New Hope Liuhe and Jiangshan Chemical expected to benefit from stable growth in demand [2][3] - Emerging demand in phosphorous and fluorine chemicals is driven by the needs of new energy battery and AI cooling applications, with companies like Chuanheng Chemical and Juhua Co. being key players [2][3] Investment Direction 4: Domestic Anti-Competition Driving Price Increases - The report emphasizes the focus on large refining and chemical companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which are expected to benefit from anti-competitive measures in the domestic market [2][3] - The organic silicon sector is entering the end of its expansion cycle, with major companies like Sinan Silicon Material adjusting industry operating rates [2][3] - The soda ash industry is facing capacity controls and the need to phase out outdated production, with companies like Boyuan Chemical under observation [2][3] Oil Price Analysis - The report anticipates a Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026, with a slight oversupply expected [11][12] - OPEC+ has postponed production increases for Q1 2026, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions [11][12] - The report highlights geopolitical factors, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Venezuela relations, which may impact oil supply dynamics [12][13] Three Major Oil Companies Insights - CNOOC is focused on increasing reserves and production while reducing costs, while PetroChina is benefiting from natural gas market reforms [34][36] - Sinopec is concentrating on domestic refining and chemical anti-competition developments [34][36] - The overall profitability of the three major oil companies is expected to be supported by the anticipated oil price stabilization [34][36]