SACL(000089) 广发证券·2024-10-10 02:52Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shenzhen Airport (000089.SZ) with a target price of 8.33 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 6.94 CNY [3]. Core Views - Shenzhen Airport is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 302-356 million CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 84.34%-117.28%. The non-recurring net profit is projected to be 228-272 million CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 3.66-4.10 million CNY [1]. - The business growth momentum is strong, with significant improvements in operational efficiency. For the first three quarters of 2024, the airport's flight takeoffs and landings, passenger throughput, and cargo/mail throughput are expected to reach 316,400 flights (+10% YoY), 45.23 million passengers (+19% YoY), and 134,150 tons (+17% YoY), respectively [1]. - The opening of the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Corridor is expected to enhance passenger flow to the airport, with a total traffic volume of 8.9 million vehicles recorded in the first 100 days since its opening [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 2,671 million CNY, with a projected increase to 4,165 million CNY in 2023 and further growth to 4,531 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 55.9% in 2023 and 8.8% in 2024 [2]. - The EBITDA is expected to rise from 77 million CNY in 2022 to 1,458 million CNY in 2023 and 1,750 million CNY in 2024 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to improve from a loss of 1,124 million CNY in 2022 to a profit of 397 million CNY in 2023 and 437 million CNY in 2024 [2]. Profitability and Valuation Metrics - The report projects an EPS of 0.19 CNY for 2023, increasing to 0.21 CNY in 2024 and 0.31 CNY in 2025 [2]. - The P/E ratio is expected to be 33.25 in 2023, decreasing to 32.55 in 2024 and further to 22.27 in 2025 [2]. - The ROE is anticipated to improve from -10.5% in 2022 to 3.6% in 2023 and 4.0% in 2024 [2].