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锂电材料行业周报:行业估值仍有修复空间,产业链整体仍维持弱势
Xiangcai Securities·2024-10-10 03:36

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][10][23] Core Insights - The lithium battery materials industry experienced a significant increase of 23.53% in the week before the holiday, outperforming the benchmark index by 7.83 percentage points [4] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E ratio) rose by 4.59x to 24.48x, with the historical valuation percentile increasing to 13.9% [4] - Despite the recent price rebounds in lithium carbonate and phosphoric iron lithium, the overall industry remains under pressure due to significant price differentiation and persistent downward pricing sentiment from downstream sectors [4][10] Market Conditions - The lithium battery materials sector saw a substantial price rebound in lithium carbonate, with spot and futures prices increasing by 2.68% and 2.19% respectively, reaching 76,500 CNY/ton and 77,000 CNY/ton [4] - The production of ternary cathode materials increased by 2.32% to 15,370 tons, with the operating rate rising by 1.36 percentage points to 46.35% [4] - The demand for phosphoric iron lithium is supported by supply increases, with production rising by 5.49% to 59,140 tons [4] Electrolyte Market - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rebounded by 1.83% to 55,500 CNY/ton, while solvent prices generally increased [5][6] - Electrolyte production increased by 7.47% to 30,060 tons, although the overall operating rate remains low at 28.27% [6] Anode Materials - The market for artificial graphite anode materials remained stable at 32,700 CNY/ton, while natural graphite held steady at 35,600 CNY/ton [7] - Anode material production decreased by 2.78% to 35,175 tons, with the operating rate dropping to 40.54% [7] Separator Market - The production of separators increased by 2.56% to 44,100 million square meters, with the operating rate rising to 97.59% [8] - Despite increased production, the separator prices remain under pressure due to excess supply and price competition from downstream manufacturers [8] Copper Foil Market - The average market price for lithium battery copper foil increased, with 8μm, 6μm, and 4.5μm grades rising to 90,100 CNY/ton, 90,600 CNY/ton, and 106,100 CNY/ton respectively [9] Investment Recommendations - The current demand in the power market is slow, with weak consumption demand overall, although the energy storage market shows better growth concentrated among leading companies [10][23] - The industry is experiencing low profitability due to oversupply and cost-cutting pressures, but recent macro policies have improved market sentiment, indicating potential for valuation recovery [10][23]