轨交设备行业事项点评：国庆铁路客流量高位运行，关注“客流向好+维保周期+设备更新”

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the rail transit equipment industry, indicating an expectation of industry index growth exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights three key factors driving the industry: improving passenger flow, maintenance cycles, and equipment updates. These factors are expected to create significant market opportunities for leading companies in the sector [2][11]. - Passenger flow is on the rise, with a reported 1.77 billion passengers transported by rail during the National Day holiday, marking a historical high for single-day passenger volume [2]. - The maintenance cycle for high-speed trains is becoming increasingly important as older models enter their maintenance periods, leading to a substantial increase in the maintenance market size [2]. - The report notes that the aging fleet of diesel locomotives is set for significant updates, with a goal to eliminate outdated models by 2027, creating further demand for new equipment [2]. Summary by Sections Passenger Flow - From January to August 2024, the national railway transported 2.996 billion passengers, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%. Daily average passenger transport during the National Day holiday was 17.739 million, up 9.18% year-on-year [2]. Maintenance Cycles - The report indicates that the maintenance cycles for high-speed trains are segmented into 3, 6, and 12 years. A significant number of trains from the 2013-2016 period are now entering advanced maintenance phases, which is expected to boost the maintenance market [2]. Equipment Updates - As of the end of 2023, there are 22,400 railway locomotives in service, with 7,800 being diesel locomotives that are overdue for retirement. The report emphasizes the need for updates and the potential market growth from this transition [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies several leading companies poised to benefit from these trends: 1. CRRC Corporation: A leading manufacturer of high-speed trains and locomotives, expected to gain from advanced maintenance and locomotive updates. 2. China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation: A leader in railway signaling and control systems, likely to benefit from system upgrades. 3. Times Electric: Engaged in rail transit electrical equipment and communication systems, expected to gain from maintenance and equipment updates. 4. China Railway Industry: Specializes in shield machines and switches, well-positioned to benefit from equipment renewal policies [2].