瑞银-全球战略-中国刺激如何传导至全球新兴市场国家

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious stance on emerging markets (EM) with a focus on selective opportunities, particularly in Chinese equities, while maintaining a skeptical view on broader EM asset performance [4][5][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent Chinese stimulus package is expected to primarily benefit Chinese assets, with equities trading at approximately a 30% price-to-book (P/B) discount compared to EM peers [5][9]. - There is skepticism regarding the effectiveness of the stimulus and Federal Reserve easing in accelerating growth, suggesting that the market may be under-positioned and could react positively in the short term [4][6]. - The report emphasizes that while local equities in China are likely to benefit, the risk/reward for commodities and the Chinese yuan (RMB) appears weaker [6][7]. Summary by Sections Global Strategy - The report notes that sentiment towards EM has improved, driven by significant developments including China's stimulus and the Fed's interest rate cuts, but remains cautious about long-term reflation [4][6]. - It suggests that the market may experience a short-term rally in EM assets, particularly in the lead-up to the US elections [4]. Chinese Market Focus - Chinese equities are viewed as inexpensive, with a strong potential for growth due to fiscal support for consumers, despite the lack of focus on housing recovery [5][9]. - The report indicates that while Chinese exporters have outperformed, the stimulus measures are more likely to impact market sentiment rather than macroeconomic realities [19]. Regional Opportunities - Other Asian markets, such as Korea and South Africa, are identified as potential beneficiaries of easing headwinds from China, with favorable valuations and growth outlooks [7][9]. - The report suggests a selective approach to foreign exchange (FX) carry trades, with a preference for currencies like the South African rand (ZAR) and Brazilian real (BRL) against certain peers [7][8].