Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Tongcheng Travel (00780) with a target price of HKD 26.5 [1] Core Insights - Tongcheng Travel's net revenue increased by 14.2% year-on-year, surpassing UBS and market expectations of 1.7% and 1% respectively [1] - Core OTA revenue grew by 17.5%, exceeding UBS's forecast of 0.1% [1] - Revenue from tourism business was 10.7% higher than UBS's prediction [1] - The gross margin stood at 65.9%, in line with UBS's expectations [1] - Adjusted net profit reached RMB 780 million, exceeding UBS and market forecasts by 3.5% and 3.3% respectively [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Revenue Performance**: The company reported a net revenue growth of 14.2% year-on-year, with core OTA revenue growth of 17.5% [1] - **Profitability Metrics**: The gross margin was reported at 65.9%, and adjusted net profit was RMB 780 million, both metrics indicating strong financial performance [1] - **Market Focus Areas**: The report highlights that the market will focus on the company's demand outlook, industry competition, profit margin trends, and updates on new business initiatives [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings and sets a target price of HKD 780 [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes Tencent's strong capability to capture long-term growth opportunities in AI development, particularly in agent-based AI and monetization models [1] - Management highlighted that AI is evolving from communication and reasoning to more action-oriented applications, leveraging Tencent's strengths through WeChat and QQ as natural interfaces between humans and AI [1] - The upcoming launch of the Mix Yuan 3.0 model in mid-April is expected to be a significant advancement in the company's model iterations [1] Summary by Relevant Sections AI Development - Tencent's management views AI as an enabler rather than a disruptor, with a focus on enhancing user engagement within its ecosystem through WeChat [1][2] - The company anticipates monetization opportunities through payments, transactions, and advertising revenue as user participation increases [1] Cloud Business - Tencent's cloud revenue accelerated in Q4 last year, with an expected adjusted operating profit of RMB 5 billion by 2025, reflecting a profit margin of approximately 8% to 10% [2] - Management plans to gradually shift the business towards external cloud customers as chip supply improves, particularly in the second half of the year [2] Gaming Business - Tencent's gaming portfolio, primarily consisting of multiplayer PvP games, is considered less susceptible to replacement by AI compared to single-player games [2]

Group 1 - The investment rating for China Resources Cement Technology is "Neutral" with a target price reduced from HKD 1.81 to HKD 1.70 [1] - The management anticipates a stable dividend outlook [1] - The total capital expenditure is projected to be RMB 1.8 billion for 2025 and RMB 3.2 billion for 2026 [1] Group 2 - The fiscal year 2025 net profit is estimated at RMB 479 million, which is 11% higher than the bank's forecast but 6% lower than market expectations [1] - Cement and clinker sales decreased by 10% year-on-year to 55 million tons, while gross profit per ton increased by 6% to RMB 39 [1] - Concrete sales increased by 18% year-on-year to 15 million cubic meters, with gross profit per cubic meter rising by 5% to RMB 41 [1] - Aggregate sales grew by 23% year-on-year to 86 million tons, although gross profit per ton decreased by 40% to RMB 8 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Gold International with a target price of HKD 297 [1]. Core Insights - Zijin Gold International reported a net profit of USD 1.6 billion for the previous year, representing a year-on-year increase of 233%, exceeding both the bank's and market expectations by USD 300 million and USD 200 million, respectively [1]. - The company declared a full-year dividend of HKD 1.5 per share, with a payout ratio below 32%, comparable to Zijin Mining's 31% [1]. - The strong performance was attributed to several factors: gold production of 45.4 tons (excluding 1.5 tons from the Bogala mine), slightly above the guidance of 43 tons, and gold sales of 46 tons; an average selling price of USD 3,542 per ounce, approximately 2% higher than the annual average gold price; and a decrease in minority interest from 22% in 2024 to 14% due to the acquisition of Akyem and RG mines, which are now wholly owned [1]. - Unit costs increased by 12% year-on-year to USD 1,722 per ounce (approximately over HKD 390 per gram), primarily due to rising material costs and increased amortization related to the old mine life assumptions of the Akyem mine [1]. Production Guidance - The management of Zijin Gold International has guided for gold production of 59.2 tons in 2026, up from the previous guidance of 57 tons, with a target of 70 to 75 tons by 2028 (including the Bogala mine) [2]. - The bank anticipates a positive market reaction to the performance, marking another strong result since the company's listing [2]. Market Outlook - The current price-to-earnings ratio for Zijin Gold is projected at 17.5 times [2]. - Recent gold prices may continue to be influenced by macro uncertainties such as conflicts in the Middle East and fluctuations in oil prices, potentially impacting market sentiment towards gold mining stocks [2]. - Despite these challenges, the bank maintains a constructive outlook on gold prices, suggesting that recent stock price weakness may present more attractive buying opportunities for gold mining stocks [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Samsonite (01910) with a target price of HKD 23.3 [1] Core Insights - Despite a relatively lenient year-on-year comparison, demand has been affected by geopolitical factors, leading to a slow start in 2026 [1] - Samsonite reported an adjusted EBITDA of USD 195.5 million for Q4 2025, significantly exceeding the bank's estimate of USD 179 million and the market's estimate of USD 178 million, primarily due to better-than-expected profit margins [1] - The management has not provided full-year revenue guidance due to uncertainties surrounding the duration and widespread impact of the Middle East conflict [1] Cost Management - Management anticipates that marketing expenses will account for 6.5% of net sales in 2026 [1] - Rising oil prices may exert pressure on transportation and raw material costs; however, the company typically maintains a raw material inventory of 5 to 6 months and utilizes forward contracts to manage short-term pressures [1] - Management reiterated that the dual listing in the U.S. is expected to be completed by 2026 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) despite adjustments to earnings forecasts and target price [1] Core Insights - UBS has raised its coal price forecasts for Qinhuangdao Port for 2026 to 2028, predicting prices of RMB 750, 720, and 670 per ton respectively, due to tightening global energy markets and quota reductions in Indonesia [1] - The anticipated increase in energy prices is expected to raise the average cost per ton by approximately RMB 15 to 20 [1] - Earnings forecasts for Nine Dragons Paper for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028 have been revised down by 11%, 2%, and 3% respectively, with the target price adjusted from HKD 11 to HKD 10.8 [1] - The company consumes about 0.26 tons of coal per ton of paper, and rising oil prices may further increase logistics costs, impacting profitability for the second half of fiscal 2026 [1] - Management plans to increase the proportion of imported wood chips from less than 1% to 10% to 20% by the end of 2026, which is expected to enhance supply security and improve wood chip quality, albeit at an additional cost of approximately RMB 200 per ton compared to domestic supply [1] - This shift in sourcing is projected to increase the average production cost by about RMB 5 to 10 per ton [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to Hong Kong and China Gas Company, with a target price of HKD 7 [1] Core Insights - For the fiscal year 2025, the core operating profit is projected to be HKD 6 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 4%, which aligns with both UBS's and market expectations [1] - The growth is primarily driven by stable performance in the Hong Kong gas business and a decrease in financial expenses, although this is partially offset by a 2% decline in profits from mainland city gas due to weak new connections [1] - The profit from mainland city gas business benefited from an increase in gross profit per cubic meter from HKD 0.52 to HKD 0.54, but this was countered by a drop in new connections from 1.68 million to 1.45 million, with gas sales remaining relatively flat [1] - The losses in the green fuel segment narrowed to HKD 158 million [1] - UBS anticipates a neutral to slightly negative outlook from investors regarding the performance, maintaining a generally neutral stance on the industry, with expectations of slowing growth in urban gas sales and potential short-term pressure on unit profits due to upstream price fluctuations [1] - Positive sentiment is noted towards EcoCeres, as its capacity expansion is progressing faster than expected, which may accelerate order absorption and attract strategic investors [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining (02899) with a target price of HKD 63.5, positioning it as a top pick in the industry based on its earnings and sales achievement capabilities, along with attractive valuation [1] Core Insights - Despite facing cost pressures, Zijin Mining is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 51.8 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 62%, nearing the upper limit of previously announced profit expectations [1] - The company declared a semi-annual dividend of RMB 0.38 per share, with an annual payout ratio of 31% when combined with the interim dividend [1] - Zijin Mining has announced an A-share buyback plan involving an investment of RMB 1.5 billion to RMB 2.5 billion [1] - Short-term copper prices may be influenced by macro uncertainties, including tensions in the Middle East and oil price fluctuations, but these factors are not expected to alter the long-term fundamentals of the copper market [1] - Recent weakness in the stock price may present more attractive buying opportunities [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Far East Horizon (03360) is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - UBS forecasts that Far East Horizon's profit and earnings per share will grow by 8% and 6% respectively this year [1] - The target price for the stock has been raised from HKD 8.8 to HKD 9.1, with a projected price-to-book ratio of 0.72 times and a forecasted dividend yield of 6.5% [1] - Management expects the core financial leasing business operations to remain stable, prioritizing financial stability over growth [1] Financial Performance Expectations - The report maintains an optimistic outlook on the core business prospects, anticipating a rebound in profit growth to high single digits this year [1] - Factors contributing to this growth include moderate loan growth, a deceleration in financing costs leading to a rebound in loan spreads for non-SME loans, increased contributions from SMEs boosting asset return rates, and a low base effect from subsidiary Hongxin Jianfa (09930) [1] - There is also potential for a return to normal levels from the currently high effective tax rate of 50% [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Sell" rating to MTR Corporation with a target price of HKD 24 [1] Core Insights - MTR Corporation reported a basic net profit of HKD 16.7 billion for the year ending December, a 4% year-on-year decline, which met UBS's expectations. However, recurring EBIT fell by 13%, which was below UBS's forecast [1] - MTR is currently in the planning stages for the South Island Line (West) and the Pak Shek Kok Station, along with the second phase of the Northern Link. UBS anticipates that the capital expenditures for these three new projects will be disclosed in the second half of this year, expecting a negative market reaction to the lower-than-expected recurring profits [1] - In terms of land bidding, MTR plans to launch tenders for the second phase of the Kam Sheung Road Station and the second phase of the Tuen Mun District 16 Station within the next 12 months. Despite a recent market recovery, UBS believes that the land price for Tuen Mun, which has a large development scale of 5,510 units, has limited upside compared to the first phase price of HKD 4,314 per square foot, including one-time payments and profit sharing. Nevertheless, the final land price is expected to remain below the HKD 5,621 per square foot compensation amount [1] - MTR has guided a maintenance capital expenditure of HKD 41.6 billion for the next three years, which is expected to remain relatively stable on a half-yearly comparison [1]