摩根士丹利：越秀地产-防御性高端国企，高股息可持续

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" (OW) rating to Yuexiu Property Co Ltd, indicating a favorable outlook compared to peers [1][3][5]. Core Insights - Yuexiu Property is expected to outperform its peers in sales, profitability, and dividend prospects due to its high-quality sellable resources and superior land reserve channels [1][5]. - The company has a strong financial position and low liquidity risk, supported by its state-owned enterprise (SOE) background [1][6]. - The report anticipates a target price of HKD 5.48, representing a potential upside of approximately 20% from the current price [5][6]. Summary by Sections Sales Growth and Land Reserves - Yuexiu Property has approximately RMB 330 billion in unsold sellable resources, with over 65% located in first-tier cities and more than 30% in second-tier cities [5][6]. - The company has maintained a land acquisition strategy that allows it to purchase land at lower costs, with 60% of its unsold resources acquired during a period of significant price adjustments in 2022 [5][6]. Financing and Liquidity - The company has maintained a net debt ratio of 60% and a cash coverage ratio of 1.5 times for short-term debt, indicating strong liquidity [1][6]. - Yuexiu Property benefits from a diversified financing capability, with an average financing cost of 3.57%, one of the lowest among its peers [6]. Management Incentives and Dividend Yield - The management has implemented equity incentive plans to align interests with shareholders, aiming for a stable dividend payout ratio of 40% [2][5]. - The expected dividend yield for 2024-2026 is projected to be between 7-9%, which is among the highest in the industry [2][5]. Valuation and Market Position - The report highlights that Yuexiu Property's current valuation appears attractive at 5.0 times the 2025 price-to-earnings ratio, compared to 5.1 times for its H-share SOE peers [5][6]. - The company is expected to increase its market share to 1.3% in 2024, up from 1.2% in 2023, positioning it among China's top ten developers [5][6].