4月7日，越秀地产（0123.HK）发布公告称，今年1—3月，公司累计合同销售金额约308.27亿元，同比 增长42%，其中于3月份实现合同销售额180亿元，同比增长58.7%。 上海静安天玥项目开盘即售罄，销售额达23亿元；北京海淀和樾望雲、和樾玉鳴双盘同日开盘，当日成 交额152亿元，成交套数超1000套，开盘去化率超90%；广州"广府系"珑悦西关、熙悦江湾等项目吸引 上千人购买……2025年开局，越秀地产在多地楼市掀起的热浪，将这家"稳健派"房企推到了行业中突出 的位置。 2024年业绩公告显示，报告期内，越秀地产实现合同销售额1145.4亿元。根据克而瑞统计，越秀地产位 列2024年房企销售排行榜第八位。公告显示，一线城市在报告期内销售贡献超过五成，有力支撑了越秀 地产2024年的经营业绩。 事实上，房地产行业进入深度调整期的这些年，土地市场亦呈现明显分化格局。一线城市和核心二线城 市由于市场潜力大、投资吸引力强，销售表现较好，头部房企扎堆一线城市拿地、卷产品。越秀地产亦 不例外，且因长期深耕北上广，其在当前市场环境下优势愈发凸显。 "销售力"表现不俗背后，越秀地产近年坚定践行"四好企业"战略，把"产 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月09日 越秀地产（00123.HK） 优于大市 业绩承压，销售目标积极 归母净利润-67%。2024 年公司实现营业收入 864 亿元，同比增长 8%；归母 净利润 10 亿元，同比下降 67%；核心净利润 16 亿元，同比下降 54%。公司 增收不增利的是由于结算毛利率约为 10.5%，同比下降 4.8pct，且公司计提 存货减值共计 23 亿元。 土储充沛，销售目标积极。2024 年公司实现销售面积 392 万平方米，同比下 降 12%；实现销售金额 1154 亿元，同比下降 12%，完成全年销售目标的 78%。 分区域看，公司大湾区、华东、中西部、北方地区销售占比分别为 43%、29%、 17%、11%。公司 2025 年可售货值 2354 亿元，销售目标 1205 亿元，若完成 则全年销售将同比增长 5%。2024 年新增 24 幅土地，总建筑面积约 271 万平 方米，其中 71%位于一线城市。截至 2024 年末，公司总土储 1971 万平方米， 其中大湾区占比 37%，一二线占比 96%，在建项目占比 69%，土储结构保持优 质。 财务稳健，融资渠道畅通。公司财 ...

2025 年 4 月 8 日 公司研究 聚焦核心城市，销售保持增长信心 ——越秀地产（0123.HK）动态跟踪 要点 事件：公司发布 2024 年业绩公告和 2025 年 1-3 月销售资料。 点评： 开发业务结算放量，毛利率下滑明显：2024 年，公司实现营业收入 864 亿元， 同比增长 7.7%，营收增长主要受房地产开发业务结算收入增长带动，年内房地 产开发业务实现营收 806 亿元，同比增长 7.2%；公司综合毛利率为 10.5%，同 比下降 4.8pct，主要因计提 22.7 亿元存货减值损失（同比增长 44.4%）及前期 低毛利项目集中结算等影响；公司归母净利润 10.4 亿元，同比下降 67.3%，其 中核心归母净利润为 15.9 亿元，同比下降 54.4%，主要受毛利率下降等影响。 截至 2024 年末，公司已售未结销售额约 1701 亿元，同比下降 14.7%，合同负 债覆盖营收 0.97 倍，预计后续开发业务结算增速或有所放缓。 2024 市场排名提升，2025 销售保持增长信心：2024 年，公司实现销售额 1145 亿元，同比下降 19.4%，年度销售首次进入全国前 10，位列第 8， ...

Summary of Yuexiu Property Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yuexiu Property - **Industry**: Real Estate Key Points 2024 Performance - **Sales Performance**: In 2024, Yuexiu Property's sales decreased by 19.4% year-on-year, totaling 114.5 billion yuan, outperforming the average decline of 24% among the top 100 developers in China, achieving a ranking of 8th nationally [2][3] - **Focus on High-Energy Cities**: The company concentrated investments in high-energy cities, with over 80% of investments in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, and over 70% of new land reserves in first-tier cities [2][3] 2025 Sales Goals and Outlook - **Sales Target**: For 2025, the sales target is set at 120.5 billion yuan, representing a growth of approximately 5.2% [4] - **Available Resources**: The total available resources are estimated at 235.4 billion yuan, with about half located in the Greater Bay Area [4] - **Construction Plans**: Plans include starting construction on 2.73 million square meters and completing 7.78 million square meters [4] Financial Health - **Cash Flow**: The company reported a net operating cash inflow of 21.7 billion yuan in 2024, with year-end cash reserves exceeding 50 billion yuan, marking an 8.6% increase [5] - **Debt Management**: Yuexiu Property maintains a net debt ratio of 51.7%, with a weighted average financing cost reduced to 3.49% [5] Long-term Strategy - **Sustainable Development**: The company emphasizes long-termism and aims to build a "Four Good Enterprises" model, focusing on good products, brands, services, and teams [6] Q1 2025 Performance - **Sales Growth**: In Q1 2025, sales increased by approximately 41% year-on-year, with a national ranking improvement to 7th place, particularly strong performance in the Beijing market [7] Investment Strategy - **Investment Goals**: The company aims for a total equity investment of 30 billion yuan in 2025, focusing on eight core cities [9] - **Profitability Standards**: Investment standards include a projected net profit margin of 6%-8% and an internal rate of return (IRR) typically around 20% [10] Inventory Management - **Dynamic Gross Margin**: The current dynamic gross margin is estimated at 13%-15%, reflecting sales from properties acquired in the past two years [11] - **Old Inventory Strategy**: A dedicated team has been established to manage slow-moving projects, with flexible pricing strategies based on regional demand [13][15] Land Acquisition and Government Relations - **Land Recovery**: The company successfully recovered approximately 12 billion yuan from the government for undeveloped land, which will be used to acquire higher-quality land [16] - **Government Cooperation**: Strong relationships with local governments facilitate smoother negotiations regarding land and inventory management [17] Future Profitability and Dividends - **Profit Margin Expectations**: The company anticipates a gross margin of no less than 10% for 2025, with expectations for improvement in 2026 and 2027 [19][24] - **Dividend Policy**: The dividend policy aims to distribute 30%-40% of core net profits, maintaining a payout ratio of 44% for the past year [25] Market Conditions - **Market Dynamics**: The real estate market is experiencing significant differentiation, with core cities showing resilience while lower-tier cities face challenges [9][18] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting Yuexiu Property's performance, strategic focus, and outlook in the real estate sector.

进入4月，越秀地产继续在一线城市"攻城略地"。 继以底价2.54亿元拿下杭州临安区锦城单元LA040301-27地块后，4月1日，越秀地产再以总价11.01亿元 竞得杭州原运河新城单元GS1004-08-1地块。两宗地块累计斥资13.55亿元。 此前2月，越秀地产联合华润置地以50.9亿元成功竞得浦东新区新杨思地块，成交楼面地价为7.47万平方 米，溢价率33.4%。据公告披露，越秀地产于该宗地块实际应占利益为51.00%。 以及1月底，越秀地产在广州大本营竞得海珠区新侨地块，实际应占利益为95.48%，涉及实际权益的土 地价款约8.39亿元。 按照越秀地产的铺排，2025年总体投资目标为300亿元，重点聚焦在北上广深一线城市，以及杭州、成 都等强二线城市，以"换仓"来完成今年1205亿元的销售目标。 然而，规模扩张的同时，利润承压也是困扰越秀地产的难题。2025年，越秀地产趋向何方？ 据2024年财报，公司去年核心净利润约15.9亿元，同比下降54.4%；权益持有人应占盈利约10.4亿元， 同比下降67.3%；毛利率约10.5%，同比下降4.8个百分点。 | . | 董事會建議不予分派二〇二四年末期股息,全 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yuexiu Property is strategically positioning itself to capitalize on the shift in the real estate market from a focus on speed to a focus on quality, aiming to lead in the "good housing" segment as new regulations are introduced [1][4][7] Group 1: Company Strategy and Performance - In 2024, Yuexiu Property achieved a revenue of approximately 86.4 billion yuan and a contract sales amount of about 114.5 billion yuan, ranking eighth in the industry [2] - The company has successfully launched several projects in major cities, with notable sales performances, such as the Guangzhou Pazhou South TOD project generating a sales volume of 8.6 billion yuan [2] - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 120.5 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 5.2% increase from the previous year [4] Group 2: Product Development and Innovation - Yuexiu Property has introduced the "4×4 good product concept," focusing on four key attributes: quality, warmth, intelligence, and growth, to enhance its product offerings [3] - The company emphasizes that "good products" are dynamic and evolve based on deep insights into urban, land, and customer needs [3] Group 3: Financial Health and Investment Strategy - As of the end of 2024, Yuexiu Property maintained a healthy financial status with a debt-to-asset ratio of 68.1% and a net debt ratio of 51.7% [5] - The company successfully issued bonds totaling 2.5 billion yuan domestically and 2.39 billion yuan in offshore markets, with a weighted average borrowing cost of 3.49%, positioning it favorably within the industry [5] - In 2024, Yuexiu Property acquired 24 premium land parcels with a total construction area of approximately 2.71 million square meters, focusing on first-tier and strong second-tier cities [6] Group 4: Market Outlook and Future Plans - The company is committed to a strategy of "investment to promote stability," focusing on eight strategically important cities and enhancing investment management to secure high-quality land [6][7] - With the ongoing transformation in the real estate market, Yuexiu Property is poised to enhance its market competitiveness through improved product and service quality [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6][14] Core Views - The company has shown revenue growth but experienced a significant decline in profit due to pressure on gross margins. The investment strategy is diversified and focuses on high-energy cities, with progress in TOD (Transit-Oriented Development) and urban renewal projects. The company has sufficient unrecognized revenue, and a recovery in performance is expected [6][7][8]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 86.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.04 billion yuan, a decrease of 67.3% year-on-year. The gross margin was 10.48%, down by 4.80 percentage points, and the net margin was 1.70%, down by 3.99 percentage points [7][10]. - The company had cash on hand of 50.05 billion yuan at the end of 2024, an increase of 8.6% from the beginning of the year, and declared a final dividend of 0.189 HKD per share, maintaining a payout ratio of 44% of core net profit [7][10]. Sales and Land Acquisition - The company reported a contract sales amount of 114.54 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 19.4% year-on-year, but its sales ranking improved to 8th place. The Greater Bay Area and Guangzhou accounted for 42.7% and 37.9% of sales, respectively. By the end of 2024, the company had unrecognized sales amounting to 170.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.7% from the beginning of the year [8][10]. - In 2024, the company acquired 24 plots of land across 8 cities, with a total construction area of 2.71 million square meters, over 70% of which were in first-tier cities. The total land reserve by the end of 2024 was 19.71 million square meters, with significant portions in the Greater Bay Area and East China [8][10]. Strategic Developments - The company has deepened its strategy of integrating commercial and residential developments, achieving a rental income of 668 million yuan from directly held commercial properties, a year-on-year increase of 37.1%. The company maintained a green status under the "three red lines" policy, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 68.1% and a weighted average borrowing cost reduced by 33 basis points to 3.49% [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 86.4 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell to 1.04 billion yuan, a decline of 67.3% [1][4]. - The decline in net profit is primarily attributed to the downturn in the real estate market, with a gross margin of 10.5% for 2024, down 4.8 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company demonstrated stronger sales performance compared to peers, with a contract sales amount of 114.5 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 19.4%, while the top 10 real estate companies saw a decline of 24.4% [2]. - The company has set a sales target of 120.5 billion yuan for 2025, representing a 5.2% increase compared to the 2024 sales completion [2]. Financial Performance - The company maintains a healthy financial position, with key financial metrics remaining in the green zone as of the end of 2024. The asset-liability ratio, net debt ratio, and cash-to-short-term debt ratio are 68.1%, 51.7%, and 2.1 times, respectively [3]. - The total borrowings amount to 103.9 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, with short-term debt accounting for 22% of total borrowings [3]. - The weighted average borrowing cost has decreased to 3.49%, down by 0.33 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Projections - The company is expected to experience a bottoming phase in settlement performance for 2024-2025, with potential recovery in profit performance as high-margin projects are recognized and impairment pressures ease [4]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.02 billion yuan, 1.24 billion yuan, and 1.36 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.9%, +21.4%, and +10.1%, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][9][21] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in performance in 2023, with a significant drop in net profit and profit margins, but future revenue recognition is expected to be strong [9] - The company has a robust cash position and is focusing on land acquisition in key cities, with a sales target increase for 2025 [9] - The company is well-positioned with a strong land bank and low financing costs, making its current valuation attractive compared to peers [9] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 80,222 million - 2024: 86,401 million (10.8% YoY growth) - 2025E: 90,807 million (5.1% YoY growth) - 2026E: 98,344 million (8.3% YoY growth) - 2027E: 106,310 million (8.1% YoY growth) [8][10] - Net profit forecasts indicate a significant decline in 2024, with a recovery expected in subsequent years: - 2023: 3,185 million - 2024: 1,040 million (-67.3% YoY) - 2025E: 1,095 million (5.3% YoY growth) - 2026E: 1,319 million (20.4% YoY growth) - 2027E: 1,582 million (20.0% YoY growth) [8][10] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be: - 2023: 0.85 - 2024: 0.26 - 2025E: 0.27 - 2026E: 0.33 - 2027E: 0.39 [8][10] Company Overview - The company reported a total cash position of 500.5 billion in 2024, with a net debt ratio of 51.7% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 2.1 times, indicating a strong liquidity position [9] - The company has a land bank of 1,971 million square meters as of the end of 2024, with a focus on first and second-tier cities [9] - The company’s average financing cost is reported at 3.49%, reflecting a decrease of 33 basis points year-on-year [9]

Core Insights - Yuexiu Property (0123.HK) reported a revenue of approximately 86.4 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, while the net profit attributable to equity holders decreased by 67.3% to approximately 1.04 billion yuan [1] - The company achieved a total contracted sales of approximately 114.54 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 19.4% compared to the previous year, and did not meet its initial target of 147 billion yuan for the year [1] - For 2025, Yuexiu Property set a sales target of 120.5 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 5.2% from 2024 [1] Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for 2024 was approximately 10.5%, a decrease of 4.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The core net profit for 2024 was approximately 1.59 billion yuan, down 54.4% year-on-year [1] - The company reported a cash inflow from operating activities of 21.73 billion yuan, significantly up from 8.35 billion yuan in 2023 [4] Land Acquisition and Inventory - In 2024, Yuexiu Property acquired 24 new land parcels across 8 cities, totaling approximately 2.71 million square meters, all located in first and second-tier cities [1][3] - As of the end of 2024, the total land reserve was approximately 19.71 million square meters, with 96% located in first and second-tier cities [1] - The company’s land reserve in first-tier cities accounted for 42.9% of the total [3] Sales and Market Strategy - The average contract sales price for 2024 was 29,200 yuan per square meter, with a total recognized sales amount of 80.8 billion yuan [3] - In the first two months of 2025, the company achieved a contract sales amount of approximately 12.83 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.8% [3] - The company emphasized a flexible marketing strategy to address market pressures, focusing on inventory reduction and digital marketing initiatives [2] Investment and Financial Health - Yuexiu Property completed equity investments totaling 29.46 billion yuan in 2024, with significant investments in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou [2] - The company maintained a cash reserve of approximately 50 billion yuan at the end of 2024, an increase of 8.6% from the beginning of the year [4] - The company’s financial metrics remained healthy, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 68.1% and a net gearing ratio of 51.7% [4] Operational Efficiency - The company established a production management center to enhance operational efficiency and asset utilization [5] - The chairman indicated a focus on maintaining positive operating cash flow and reducing financing costs while ensuring financial stability [5]