建筑建材：专项债发行加速提升行业需求，财政协同提效助质变

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The acceleration of local government special bond issuance since August 2024 has significantly increased industry demand, with monthly issuance amounts reaching 805.1 billion and 1,027.9 billion yuan in August and September respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 34% and 188% [2] - Cumulative issuance from January to September 2024 reached 3.61 trillion yuan, reversing the previous seven months' negative growth trend with a year-on-year increase of 4.44% [2] - The rapid issuance of special bonds is expected to enhance physical workload in Q4 2024, improving infrastructure investment and domestic demand [2][3] - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is becoming evident, with measures such as lowering reserve requirements and interest rates, which are expected to further stimulate domestic demand and benefit the construction materials industry [3] - The construction materials sector has been in a prolonged downturn since Q4 2022, but the current policy push is anticipated to facilitate a return to a healthier long-term development trajectory [3] Summary by Sections Special Bond Issuance - Local governments have accelerated special bond issuance, with significant monthly increases observed in August and September 2024 [2] - The total issuance for the first nine months of 2024 has already reached 92.51% of the annual target of 3.9 trillion yuan [2] Policy Collaboration - The recent acceleration in special bond issuance reflects a coordinated effort between fiscal and monetary policies, aimed at enhancing the effectiveness of economic stimulus measures [3] - The combination of various policy initiatives is expected to improve domestic demand and economic conditions in Q4 2024 [3] Industry Outlook - The construction materials industry is poised for marginal improvement in demand as the real estate sector stabilizes and returns to a healthier growth path [3] - If supply-side optimization and policy effects transition from quantitative to qualitative changes, the industry could see significant valuation and performance improvements, leading to a "Davis Double Play" scenario [3]