房地产市场周报（09.30-10.06）：重磅支持举措相继落地，核心城市有望引领市场

Market Overview - The sales volume of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 66.56% week-on-week and 18.27% year-on-year during the period from September 30 to October 6, 2024[12] - First-tier cities showed a significant improvement, with sales area increasing by 35.16% year-on-year[12] - From January 1 to October 6, 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 33.93% year-on-year, indicating a continuous narrowing of the decline[12] Policy Impact - Following the September Central Political Bureau meeting, a series of supportive measures for the real estate market were introduced, including adjustments to housing loan policies and the cancellation of purchase restrictions in major cities[12][13] - Guangzhou announced the cancellation of all housing purchase restrictions effective September 30, 2024, to promote market stability[13] Investment Recommendations - Continued focus on state-owned enterprises in infrastructure, such as China State Construction and China Power Construction, is advised due to ongoing real estate support policies[3] - Large state-owned real estate companies like Vanke and Poly are expected to see marginal improvements in sales as demand stabilizes[3] - Private enterprises on the financing "white list," such as Longfor and Gemdale, may experience credit recovery amid ongoing financing coordination mechanisms[3] Risks - The effectiveness of policies may fall short of expectations, and there is a risk of credit issues spreading among real estate companies[4]