2024年10月货币政策操作展望：打通货币与财政协同发力的渠道

Monetary Policy Insights - The monetary policy introduced on September 24 aims to narrow the gap between the decline rates of real financing rates and bond rates, establishing a market-oriented adjustment mechanism for housing loan rates[3] - Government bonds are positioned as a key link between monetary and asset markets, enhancing their role as a monetary anchor[3] - The central bank's actions include absorbing or injecting liquidity, signaling price changes, and providing low-cost liquidity support to the stock market in emergencies[3] Fiscal Policy and Liquidity Outlook - October is expected to see a liquidity gap of approximately CNY 710 billion due to increased fiscal deposits, as it is a tax month[20] - The government bond issuance pressure in October is projected to decrease by about CNY 700 billion compared to September, with an estimated fiscal shortfall of CNY 2.8 trillion for the first eight months of the year[20] - If CNY 2 trillion in new government bonds are issued, the liquidity gap could increase by an additional CNY 500 billion, potentially leading to a further 25 basis points cut in the reserve requirement ratio[20] Economic Stability Measures - Enhancing exchange rate flexibility is crucial for achieving "currency stability," with the third quarter monetary policy meeting emphasizing this goal[3] - The policy reflects a coordinated effort between monetary and fiscal strategies, with measures to stabilize housing prices and support stock buybacks[3] - The report indicates that the recovery of private sector balance sheets is essential for addressing insufficient demand, with risk assets (stocks) identified as a potential common anchor for monetary and fiscal policies[3]