传统煤化工行业研究框架专题报告：存量优化，成本优先

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the traditional coal chemical industry Core Viewpoints - The traditional coal chemical industry is characterized by the conversion of coal into gas, liquid, and solid products, which are further processed into chemical and energy products, emphasizing comprehensive utilization of coal [3] - The main products of the traditional coal chemical industry include synthetic ammonia (urea), coke, and calcium carbide, with significant roles in agriculture, steel production, and general plastics [3][47] - The report highlights the importance of synthetic ammonia and urea in agricultural applications, noting that urea accounts for over 60% of nitrogen fertilizer production in China [17][20] - The report indicates a stable increase in agricultural demand for urea, driven by rising grain prices and supportive agricultural policies [20] Summary by Sections Traditional Coal Chemical Industry Overview - The coal chemical industry is divided into traditional and modern sectors, with traditional products primarily including synthetic ammonia, coke, and calcium carbide [3] - The industry plays a crucial role in addressing fertilizer needs, supporting heavy industries, and providing low-cost plastic sources [3] Synthetic Ammonia - Urea - Synthetic ammonia production is primarily driven by agricultural demand, with 70% of its consumption used for fertilizers [14] - Urea consumption in China has surpassed 50 million tons recently, supported by favorable agricultural policies [17] - The report anticipates continued growth in agricultural urea demand due to stable planting areas and rising grain prices [20] Coke - Coke is essential for steel production, with 88% of its consumption used in metallurgical processes [47] - The report notes a significant correlation between steel prices and coke demand, indicating that economic conditions heavily influence the industry [49] - The domestic coke market has seen a reduction in imports and a slight decrease in exports, reflecting changing demand dynamics [51] Calcium Carbide - Calcium carbide is primarily used in producing acetylene and downstream chemical products, with PVC being a major application [71] - The report highlights the expected increase in demand for calcium carbide driven by the expansion of BDO production, although actual demand will depend on downstream market conditions [75] - The competition from ethylene-based production methods is noted as a potential challenge for calcium carbide-derived products [82]