房地产行业数据点评：9月新房和二手房成交继续走弱，库存水平和去化周期均有上升

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [6][22]. Core Insights - New home and second-hand home transactions continued to weaken in September, with inventory levels and the de-stocking cycle both increasing [4][14]. - In September, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 27% year-on-year and 4% month-on-month, with the year-on-year decline expanding by 3 percentage points [4][8]. - The cumulative transaction area from January to September decreased by 34% year-on-year, with the decline remaining stable compared to the previous month [4][8]. - The sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies in September was 293.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 39%, with the decline continuing to expand [5][19]. - The report highlights that the concentration of the industry is increasing, with the market share of the top 10, 30, and 50 companies rising year-on-year [5][19]. Summary by Sections Sales Data - In September, the transaction area of new homes in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by 13%, 42%, and 2% year-on-year, respectively [4][8]. - The inventory of available commercial housing in the top ten cities was 85.72 million square meters at the end of September, with a de-stocking cycle of 23 months, which is an increase of about 4 months from the previous month [14][17]. Company Performance - The sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies from January to September was 2.9699 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 38.8% [5][19]. - The sales thresholds for the top 10, 30, 50, and 100 companies were 73.2 billion yuan, 24.3 billion yuan, 12.8 billion yuan, and 5.7 billion yuan, respectively, with significant year-on-year declines [5][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the recent policy adjustments in major cities to relax purchase restrictions and lower costs will stabilize market confidence and promote demand recovery [6][22]. - It is recommended to focus on high-quality developers with strong financing and land acquisition capabilities, as well as leading second-hand housing intermediaries benefiting from improved transaction conditions [6][22].