食品饮料行业周报：政策推动信心恢复，估值率先修复

Investment Rating - The food and beverage industry rating has been upgraded from "Overweight" to "Buy" [4][40]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a significant increase of 36.53% from September 23 to September 30, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 11.01 percentage points [2][7]. - The recovery in market confidence is driven by a series of unexpected policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, which has led to a rebound in the food and beverage sector, particularly in the liquor segment [3][11]. - The National Day holiday saw a rise in domestic travel and dining consumption, with 765 million domestic trips taken, reflecting a 5.9% year-on-year increase [3][11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - From September 23 to September 30, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 21.91%, while the food and beverage industry surged by 36.53%, ranking second among 31 sectors [2][7]. - All sub-sectors within food and beverage saw gains, with liquor increasing by 40.43% and pre-processed foods by 33.20% [2][7]. Policy Impact - A series of monetary easing policies were announced, including interest rate cuts and adjustments to housing loan requirements, which exceeded market expectations [3][11]. - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need to boost consumption and improve the income of middle and low-income groups, which is expected to enhance consumer confidence [3][11]. Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus on previously undervalued mid-range liquor brands and high-end regional leaders due to anticipated recovery in demand [4][40]. - Long-term attention on alpha opportunities as the market transitions from valuation recovery to fundamental improvement [4][40]. Consumer Behavior - During the National Day holiday, total spending by domestic tourists reached 700.82 billion yuan, a 6.3% increase year-on-year [3][11]. - Dining consumption saw a significant increase, with average daily restaurant spending rising by 33.4% compared to the previous year [3][11].