交通运输行业大宗供应链专题：流动性宽松下的大宗供应链超级周期

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a strong recovery in demand and profitability for companies in the bulk supply chain sector [2][57]. Core Insights - The bulk supply chain sector has shown significant excess returns during previous cycles, with the raw material supply chain service index outperforming the CSI 300 index by 211.18 percentage points from 2006 to 2008 and by 162.23 percentage points from 2014 to 2015 [2][12]. - The report anticipates an upward trend for the transportation sector, particularly for cyclical bulk supply chain sub-sectors, driven by strong support at the bottom of the commodity market and recovery in industry prosperity [2][57]. - Factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and China's economic recovery are expected to have a sustained impact on commodity prices, leading to improved demand and inventory conditions in the second half of the year [2][40][41]. Summary by Sections Historical Performance - Since 2006, the transportation industry has experienced two cycles, with the first cycle underperforming and the second cycle outperforming the CSI 300 index. The highest increase in the transportation sector was 380.46% from 2006 to 2008 and 234.10% from 2014 to 2015 [9]. - The bulk supply chain sector has consistently delivered excess returns, with notable individual stock performances such as Wuchan Zhongda outperforming the CSI 300 index by 714.75 percentage points during the 2006-2008 cycle [15][12]. Market Dynamics - The bulk supply chain market in China is substantial, with a market size of approximately 55 trillion yuan in 2022, and the concentration of the industry is gradually increasing [32]. - The CR5 market share of leading companies in the bulk supply chain has risen from 4.81% in 2021 to 5.46% in the first half of 2023, indicating a strengthening of the market's top players [32]. Company Analysis - Wuchan Zhongda is highlighted for its strong performance in integrated supply chain services, with significant sales volumes in various commodities, including steel and coal [60]. - Xiamen Xiangyu is noted for its diversified revenue streams, with service and scale benefits being core to its profitability [26]. - Su-meida is positioned as a "supply chain + industry chain" player, aiming for a billion-dollar group through diversified development and investment strategies [62]. - Zhongchu's core warehousing business is stable, with a focus on supply chain integration and significant operational capacity [64]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on companies that enhance logistics and warehousing capabilities, such as Wuchan Zhongda (600704.SH), Xiamen Guomao (600755.SH), and Xiamen Xiangyu (600057.SH) [2][57]. - Companies with diversified business models, such as Su-meida (600710.SH) and Zhongchu (600787.SH), are also recommended for their potential to empower clients through multi-faceted services [57].